Some of my readers insist, after my last published note (see 600K: defenders of what? en https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/the-600k-network-defenders-of-what.html) that there is more than enough of an army of opposition supporters of the vote with the candidacy of María Corina Machado (MCM) at the forefront, which is being organized for the 2024 elections, to defeat the regime's candidate.
I will try once again to explain, which apparently I did not succeed well enough in the above mentioned note, that the 600K are necessary, but not enough, as a mathematical theorem, to achieve that goal, for a fundamental reason: the CNE's electoral system. That first things go in the right order: first it is necessary to overcome that fundamental obstacle which is nothing less than agreeing on a different electoral system, with a complete manual scrutiny, and that I indicated that at this political moment it would be by way of negotiation, so that those 600K have something to defend.
However, there are those who say that precisely the issue is for the advocates to open all the boxes over the procedure, proving that we are the majority in that election, and forcing the regime to resign. I reject this proposal, firstly because it is absurd (they have the armed military in every center), and secondly because it is illegal, according to the electoral law of the Castro-Chavist-Madurist regime. Why do you think the law was modified for that? Clearly to win every time...
Then our candidate should not accept to go to that election, if she is "qualified", without an electoral system that guarantees Venezuelans that each and every ballot cast in that election can be manually scrutinized. In this way, the result can be defended beyond any doubt, in the presence of national and foreign observers.
Since in the Electoral Dictionary of CAPEL (Inter-American Center for Electoral Assistance and Promotion), a specialized program of the Inter-American Institute of Human Rights, there is nothing that defines "electoral condition", it is not possible to find anything that defines "electoral condition" (see in Spanish CAPEL, Diccionario Electoral, Tercera edición: IIDH/CAPEL y TEPJF, Costa Rica/México, 2017, en https://www2.iidh.ed.cr/capel/diccionario/index.html), I will refer to the local judgment of the SUMATE organization, which considers that in order to have Free Elections in Venezuela, certain democratic guarantees listed in 12 conditions must be ensured (see SUMATE's Special Report on electoral conditions, in http://tinyurl.com/yh95vk9s).
Condition No. 5 deals with the audit system to be used during the electoral process (item 2, Transparent System, 2.1 Total Audits, Before, during and after the electoral event). According to SUMATE one condition is that the process guarantees a reliable audit of the election, as stated in the detailed report. However, an audit and its procedures depend on and are tied to the system used to count the votes.
The problem was that castro-chavismo changed the concept of scrutiny for a supposed audit of a few boxes in the polling center, according to a table based on the number of tables in the center. The correct word in elections is not audit but scrutiny. The audit would apply when the parties disagree with the result and proceed after the electoral act to audit the documents to find out where the difference is. This is not scrutiny because it avoids counting all the ballots. In order to be certain of the true result, it is necessary to see them all. Thus, the opposition has allowed itself to apply an action clearly advantageous for the regime, in all elections. A machine by its nature cannot do an audit. Audits are made by the auditors, who have the criteria to say if something was done wrong. It is time to put the concepts in order.
The automated system used in Venezuela, which includes a scrutiny carried out by the machines programmed by order of the regime, clearly does not guarantee what SUMATE suggested:
"It is important to point out that, in 2017, the position set by the company SmartMatic, as a contractor company of the CNE, who made separate pronouncements regarding the discrepancies of the electoral results indicated by the electoral body and those reflected in the system, call into question the electoral system. Likewise, what happened in the election of Governors in the state of Bolivar, when discrepancies between the results published in the web page of the CNE and the tally sheets in at least eleven (11) polling stations, whereby the candidate of the governing party was declared the winner, altering not only the results, but also the procedure of the totalization system, an act that to date, even the CNE, having admitted the appeal filed by the then candidate, Andres Velasquez, has not made any pronouncement. This vulnerability must be pointed out through more effective revisions of the system as a whole" (see SUMATE Report, point 2.1) (emphasis added).
Here then we are not talking about just any condition, because it IS NOT a condition. It is the consequence of the use of a complex automatic system to count the votes of Venezuelans in favor of the regime. We are talking about the Automated Electoral System, completely inaudible under the terms of the CNE, to the point that the results yielded by its machines prevailed over the results of the minutes that the real winning candidate, Andres Velasquez, wielded. Did the regime take this for granted? The result was completely ignored and manipulated by the CNE. We are in the presence then of something that goes far beyond an electoral condition, very different in its essence from the 11 other necessary electoral conditions listed by SUMATE in its report.
And that was the trap bequeathed to us by Hugo Chávez Frías, built by Jorge Rodríguez and Smartmatic for the recall of the Galactico in 2004. Since then, the electoral laws were modified, and the scrutiny went from being manual to being automated, becoming a so-called "audit" completely mediatized, changing by those laws what is taken as truth as electoral result, prevailing what the programmed machines of the regime say. Do you believe that this was not built to perpetuate in power? No army of defenders of the vote will be able to fight against that wall, which they will defend with laws made to favor fraud and the weapons of the Armed Forces.
Up to this moment, this is how we will go to the presidential election of 2024, unless a true opposition as the one the people gave themselves on October 22 changes that situation. But it will by no means be easy because the continuity of the regime depends on that sinister system.
Long before deciding to enter the primary elections, MCM declared in April 2022 his famous 5 conditions to attend those elections: "First: zero CNE; Second: zero TSJ, neither this chavista now nor the chavista they intend to put; Third: zero Plan Republica; Four: zero little machines, manual vote, you count and validate your vote; Five: all Venezuelans, we can all vote, here and those who are here and those who are around the world because we all have the same rights..." (see in Spanish X account, formerly Twitter, of @mariacorinaYA of April 6, 2022, It's time to really measure up and let every Venezuelan decide! , in https://twitter.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/1511826085448626181) (emphasis added).
What was good for the turkey in the primary elections, must be equally good for the turkey, in the presidential elections, and now the opposition led by MCM must maintain and update especially and even more so, conditions four and five of the primaries: zero machines, manual voting, you count and validate your vote; and all Venezuelans, we can all vote, here and those who are here and those who are around the world. And that cannot be negotiable, so that those 600K defenders of the vote can do their job properly. Otherwise, I recommend looking for another way out of the regime....
Caracas, January 11, 2024
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