Much has been said in social networks and other media about the possible scenarios that are being proposed before, during and after July 28, many of them taking for granted the electoral victory of the opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU), and what the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros will actually end up doing with that, in the face of a manifest reality that looks unstoppable in the streets of Venezuela.
Without intending to be a fortune teller, in this modest tribune I have always tried to highlight the facts of the regime in the face of what has happened in the past and what it has ended up doing, without inventing anything. For example, in December 2015 they decided to let pass -at the behest of the military, we must not forget- the victory of the opposition in the National Assembly elections and managed two days later, with the support of the TSJ, to neutralize and minimize it for its entire constitutional period. They even convened two years later an ILLEGITIMATE Constituent without the approval of the people in Constituent Popular Consultation, to legislate over the Legislative Branch of the State, WITHOUT THEIR EYES BEING EYED AND NOTHING HAPPENED. Maduro's 2017 Constituent effectively served them to neutralize the 2015 National Assembly until its term ran out.
Now, everyone thinks, in the enthusiasm of the electoral campaign, in the not so simple scenario of EGU winning the Presidency of the Republic, over and above the electoral fraud that is already running, that things will be different and there will be a disbanding of the main characters of the regime, thus allowing Venezuelans to recover the destroyed country that they will have left us. And I believe that once again we would be making a serious mistake.
It is true that the Presidency of the Republic is a determining power in Venezuela, since our country is markedly presidential. But to say that this election will cause a 180º change, without considering what has happened before in our country, is little less than a tropical fantasy plagued with naivety.
In the scenario that EGU manages to be proclaimed President Elect, Jorge Rodriguez does not have to stop being the President of the illegitimate National Assembly, nor Magistrate Caryslia Rodriguez to stop being President of the TSJ, nor Elvis Amoroso to stop being President of the CNE, nor Tarek William Saab to stop being Attorney General of the Republic, as well as the rest of the structure that institutionally sustains this tyranny. None of them need to leave their posts.
On the contrary, they will gather, as they did in December 2015, to get rid of something much worse for them, as an opposing National Assembly was, and they succeeded in doing so. Likewise, they would do so to get rid of EGU and put things in their favor again. Despite the fact that the National Assembly has an almost unlimited power in the Constitution, the official opposition managed from 2016 to 2020 not to use it in favor of Venezuelans, nor to get rid of the regime as promised, but to coexist with it.
And you will tell me, what you want is for the tiger to eat us! To which I will answer: NO. What I want is for us to land. If we reach, with God's favor, the situation where EGU becomes President Elect and María Corina Machado (MCM) continues to be the main leader of the opposition, let's not wait a second for the animal on the ground, wounded but not dead, to get up at any moment and bite our necks in the jugular, making useless all this effort that Venezuelans are making to reach the 28J and get out of the regime.
I have written liters of electronic ink in the pages of this blog indicating that the only way to recover the country institutionally is through the summoning of the OWNER OF THE SOVEREIGNTY to a Constituent process of Original character, indicating in some cases the mechanisms of summoning. But these mechanisms have varied as the political situation of the country has changed, and the moment in which we find ourselves forces us to reevaluate this option for the recovery of Venezuela.
For example, the 2015 National Assembly could have triggered the Constituent initiative with two thirds of its members as indicated in Article 348 of the Constitution from the first day of its swearing in, and they DID NOT DO SO, opting for a Recall Referendum of Maduro in 2017, which was blocked by the judiciary. The opposition has consistently dismissed the Constituent solution because they believe that the people will charge them, like the regime, for all their mistakes. And they are quite right, but in that way they place their own political survival above the welfare of the population. Likewise, that bill will be paid when the people will effectively manage to summon themselves above those pettinesses.
The difference of this political moment with the previous one, where we proposed this solution, is that in the event of a situation -this time electoral- that places an opponent in the Presidency of the Republic, he will not only require the political stability that a constituent process can give him, but NECESSARILY THE SITUATION OF THE REGIME PUTS US IN THE OBLIGATION OF CONVENING IT in order to keep him there. In this case, EGU would have the rest of the public powers working to dismantle in the following months all the institutionality of the Presidency of the Republic before the final handover in January 2025.
It is no longer a question of whether or not the political opposition of the MUD-PU is willing to call a Constituent Assembly, but it is now imperative to do so in order for the opposition to keep the privileged position of a Presidency elected with the votes of the Venezuelan people. And the way to guarantee this is that the presidency of EGU becomes a transitional presidency for a maximum of one year, leading to the economic and political normalization of the country, subsequently calling for another electoral process within the framework of a Constituent Assembly, where MCM can run as a candidate, as should have happened before, and if the people so decide, effectively become President of the Republic.
If the opposition
and MCM let things go "as usual" until January 2025, waiting for the
regime to hand over the presidential sash to EGU, the illegitimate National
Assembly of Rodriguez, with all its power, will have enough time to empty of
content whatever the President of the Republic may do. That already happened
with the Caracas Metropolitan Mayor's Office when Antonio Ledezma won. Even
they themselves could call the Constituent Assembly with two thirds of their
National Assembly, under their own rules of convocation, calling for a new
presidential election. Either we call it or they call it for us as Chávez did
in 1999.
As President Elect, EGU would not have the power to call the Constituent Power. Then, there would only remain the political force that brings the inertia of the presidential election, with MCM at the head, who should be summoning the Original Constituent Power by popular initiative, as established in Article 348 of the Constitution. How to get there with the Electoral Power still under control of the regime would be a matter of another discussion that does not fit here, but what we cannot do is to remain celebrating while the regime dynamites what we have achieved.
If MCM wishes to be President of the Republic and the Venezuelan people truly want her in that position, as she has clearly manifested in the streets through her admirable political tour throughout the country, she should pronounce herself right now in favor of the call of the people to a National Constituent Assembly to reform the State, and begin the collection of wills for the call of the owner of the sovereignty by popular initiative, introducing the Constituent option in the equation of July 28 to ensure the result of that election in favor of the Venezuelans. By then it could be too late...
Caracas, June 21, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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