"I have said many times, here we need a symmetrical, real negotiation, to guarantee and orderly transition and to subscribe to adequate guarantees for the parties, and I have also insisted that for me that is the best option for everyone, including Maduro...", Idania Chirinos interview with María Corina Machado (MCM) on NTN24 (see in Spanish X, formerly Twitter, @polianalitica, Feb. 8, in https://twitter.com/polianalitica/status/1755618502839357504).
In my opinion, this statement by MCM has not been sufficiently analyzed, and naturally goes under the table because it is added, without further study or effort, to the rest of the negotiating initiatives that have been proposed to establish a possible exit from the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros.
Let us first examine what a "symmetrical negotiation" is and then elaborate if it is possible, as proposed by MCM:
"Symmetric negotiation refers to a type of negotiation in which the two parties involved have equal power, resources, and information. This means that both parties have the same ability to influence the outcome of the negotiation and neither has a significant advantage over the other..." (see in Spanish Google AI query, Symmetric Negotiation: characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages, in https://gemini.google.com/share/99385bb97bd9) (highlighted our).
Does this symmetry now exist between the parties at the negotiating table in Mexico and Barbados (electoral negotiation)? Definitely NOT. The negotiating opposition has never had the same power, nor clearly the same resources, nor of course the same information. It can be understood as an aspiration of the opposition, but the most important question we must ask ourselves here is the following: is it possible to achieve symmetry now? Let us look at the circumstances.
First of all, the official opposition of the G4 Unitary Platform has NEVER sat down to negotiate with the regime on equal terms. Some have been bought, others have been blackmailed (due to slips committed and known to the regime), some have been convinced (remember the "bend so as not to break") to grant the regime everything it has asked for, starting with recognizing them as the "government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela" since their first signed negotiation document.
How then can a moderately balanced, or in the best of cases, symmetrical negotiation be advanced? That is why we can understand the reasons why Venezuelans see the regime recovering its criminals from US prisons, and still the revolving door of Venezuelan prisoners does not stop, by releasing some and imprisoning new ones, the most recent outrage being the forced disappearance last Friday, February 9, of Dr. Rocío San Miguel, Human Rights defender (see in Spanish post by @theresly Human Rights defender, at https://twitter.com/theresly/status/1756736527030259820).
The first requirement necessary to start thinking about a "symmetrical negotiation" with the regime, and which is not found in the negotiation books, is not to have a "straw tail" exposed with the counterpart. Venezuelans know what that means. MCM passes this first test with honors, but a thorough review of the negotiators at the negotiating table would be necessary, starting with its current spokesman, whose honorability has been publicly questioned, in order to guarantee that there is no coercion from the regime to the opposition counterpart (see in Spanish Contrapunto.com ¿Qué le cuestionan a Gerardo Blyde?, in https://contrapunto.com/nacional/politica/que-le-cuestionan-a-gerardo-blyde/).
After this first review, it remains to be seen how to balance the first requirement for a symmetrical negotiation, the power of the opposition vis-à-vis the regime. An important step has already been taken with the primary election of MCM and its overwhelming result. MCM is the ONLY person capable of balancing the balance of power and political representation of Venezuelans against the regime. This is something that some interested parties pretend to ignore by only proposing substitutes (or "prostitutes" as my dear friend Adriana Vigilanza García, in https://twitter.com/Adrianavigi/status/1755022291581252051) to take MCM's place in the presidential election.
But this power needs to be underpinned by the power that comes from the influence of the International Community. In this field, MCM has already achieved two very important successes: 1) the support of the European Parliament, which by overwhelming majority endorsed MCM and will disregard any election made without her (see in Spanish European Parliament defends by overwhelming majority that MCM be a candidate for the presidential elections, in https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/02/08/65c4d259e85eceb9338b45a5.html); and 2) bipartisan support in the U.S. Congressional Foreign Affairs Committee (see in Spanish Bipartisan U.S. Congressional Committee expresses support for MCM, in https://www.diariolasamericas.com/america-latina/comite-bipartidista-del-congreso-eeuu-expresa-apoyo-maria-corina-machado-n5351166). This balances the first requirement of a symmetrical negotiation with the Maduro regime.
Then come the resources. According to the definition, both parties must balance each other in resources. The power of the regime makes them dispose of the resources of all Venezuelans. Only an opposition led by MCM could have something similar with external support. But those resources would be impossible if by some trickery the regime manages to have another opponent in the presidential election. THAT IS WHY THE CANDIDATE HAS TO BE MCM. This must be understood once and for all.
The regime continues to pursue the sources of resources of all those who oppose it. But they know that it is always possible to solve this stumbling block and that is why they are pushing forward with new measures such as those announced with a law against NGOs in the country, which affects all civil society initiatives. However, the issue of resources to support the MCM will be covered by the Venezuelans themselves with their indeclinable will to get out of this plague that consumes us. That more than balances this requirement.
And finally there is the requirement of information on the subject of the negotiation. The regime has imposed its agenda and has been able to achieve it so far because of the weaknesses of those who have so far conducted the negotiation. It could even be said that it is a moral issue. Those who represent us in a symmetrical negotiation must be impeccable people. People who do not go to Barbados or Mexico for tourism or to drink sugar cane, but to represent the will of millions of Venezuelans to get out of this hell in peace. Do we have that? In my opinion, and I believe that of the rest of Venezuelans, definitely not.
If MCM seriously believes as we do that a symmetrical negotiation is necessary, to guarantee a real transition, it must start by changing the whole negotiating team, from the head on, and put herself at the forefront. That will ensure his direct influence on the outcome of the negotiation and what can and cannot be given up, as well as covering the extremes to achieve the necessary symmetry in that negotiation. That decision will also determine whether or not this tragedy will end in free, fair and verifiable elections, with her at the forefront as the undisputed candidate. This is the only way to see this process through to the end....
Caracas, February 11, 2024
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TIC’s & Derechos Humanos,
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