By Luis Manuel Aguana
It's an immediate question impossible to
avoid. It is not possible to request the resignation of President Juan Guaidó,
as I did in my last note (see President Guaidó, go in peace, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/president-guaido-go-in-peace.html)
without saying what would have to come next. This request for resignation
should not come as a surprise to those of us who, like the rest of Venezuelans,
have witnessed the collapse of his presidency after the corruption scandals
carried out by his immediate collaborators and now, unfortunately, by his
direct relatives according to the denunciations made to his father and brother (see
denunciations in Spanish in https://www.lechuguinos.com/padre-guaido-adquirio-taxis-espana/ y http://www.redpres.com/t34758-investigan-en-espana-a-hermano-de-juan-guaido-por-corrupcion-en-el-caso-odebrecht).
Venezuela turns out to be the only country in
the world where, in the face of allegations of corruption, officials do not
give explanations of any kind and instead of giving all the space for the facts
to be investigated, on the contrary they hide behind their condition, screwing
themselves even more into their positions. In any other country, officials in
similar situations resign without being requested to do so. That's why I've
been struck by the reaction of some prominent figures in social networks
virulently insulting the request for resignation, indicating that without
Guaidó the Republic falls, words more, words less. And I ask myself, if at this
point to get out of the very serious problem that Venezuela is going through we
depend on one person, we are extremely bad.
Guaidó arrived there in well-known political
circumstances, which should have begun on July 16, 2017 with the majority vote
of Venezuelans in the popular consultation of that date. Unfortunately, our
political leadership disregarded that mandate, delaying for two years the
imposition of a legitimate President due to a circumstance that occurred when
the regime advanced the corresponding elections by the end of 2018. And my
question is, what if Maduro had not advanced them, would Juan Guaidó exist? On
the contrary, we would have Maduro "legitimately" installed in
Miraflores with the votes of Tiby's arranged roulette in the CNE. That's
another reason to say, as I said before, that the problem is not, nor is it
still Juan Guaidó.
The President in Charge should separate from
the position to open the game to other forces. If the deputies insist on this
unconstitutional Statute of Transition, the regime will continue to advance.
Fundamentally, the resignation of Juan Guaidó as President in Charge would put
the game as it was before January 23, 2019, but with a difference. It would
give the National Assembly the opportunity to choose very carefully who should
lead what I have called a Crisis Command, and place Guaidó's successor,
accompanied by the most lucid Venezuelans and representatives of civil society,
in the position of "President in Charge according to Article 233,"
with indisputable ethics and morals. A "dream team",
in the most important chosen areas.
Guaidó's successor would not necessarily have
to be a deputy of the National Assembly, but if it must, of course, be agreed
by her in a legitimate manner, as was done in 1993 with Ramón J Velásquez, as
explained in a previous note (see The problem is not Guaidó, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_43.html). This team should be chosen and sworn in, and then immediately leave
the country and begin a struggle with renewed strength to expel the regime, by
whatever means chosen between them and the International Community. I am not
proposing a Government in Exile because this group WOULD NOT HAVE GOVERNMENT
FUNCTIONS as we know them, which would be restricted to those necessary for the
recovery of Venezuela. Their functions would be limited ONLY and EXCLUSIVELY to
achieving as their main objective the expulsion of the regime, but with the
legitimacy that all Venezuelans would give them.
Given the certain possibility that the regime
recovers the Directive of the National Assembly at the tip of green suitcases,
the only legitimate power recognized internationally, the exit can not be
"repeat" Juan Guaido, but to block the game with an unexpected play,
recovering the credibility of Venezuelans. But they won't. Corruption has tied
their hands. The previous proposal is nothing more than what my tormented
imagination would want to happen, if the politicians of that National Assembly
were really hurt by the situation of millions of Venezuelans and were thinking
about the country and not about their own pockets or political interests,
crudely speaking.
In fact, nothing would have prevented them
from doing exactly the same thing after January 23, 2019. But they did something
else. And now they intend to make the sequel to the same film with the same
protagonist, even though the Americans have warned them to support institutions
and not people (see Statements in Spanish by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State
for the Western Hemisphere Michael Kozak https://www.elimpulso.com/2019/12/06/video-michael-kozak-nuestro-apoyo-ha-sido-a-las-instituciones-democraticas-no-a-guaido-como-persona-6dic/).
In other words, after the failure of Juan
Guaidó's credibility as effectively revealed by the recent Meganálisis survey (see
in Spanish Meganalysis Survey November and December 2019, in https://es.scribd.com/document/438271580/Encuesta-Meganalisis-Noviembre-y-Diciembre-2019-Ver-publicacion), where to the question "After 10 months, do you still believe,
trust and support Juan Guaidó?", 68.5% answered NO (I no longer
believe, trust and support Guaidó) and 12.9% said they never believed, trusted
or supported Guaidó. If with a balance of 68.5% + 12.9% = 81.4% of Venezuelans
that by December 2019, they express NO CONFIDENCE in the President in Charge,
in which opposition head should we insist on the same thing next year? Well,
those who intend to continue in cohabitation and negotiation with the money of
the Republic.
All this without taking into account that if
there was no "cessation of usurpation" in a year in which it could
well be said that conditions were optimal like 2019, why would Venezuelans
think that next year would be better, in the worst conditions of the
credibility of political leadership? Even more so if to the above we add as an
ending the question of Meganálisis: "You trust and support the National
Assembly (AN) with an opposition majority, and which was elected in December
2015...", where 85.3% answered NO.
This puts us in a very difficult scenario for
Venezuelans where there is a very high probability that the official opposition
parties will participate in electoral processes with the regime of Nicolás
Maduro Moros, in a clear flight forward, without having materialized the
"cessation of usurpation", with an CNE agreed as a whole, and without
a substantive change in the electoral conditions. We Venezuelans will then find
ourselves in the situation of repudiating the official cohabitant opposition,
breaking openly with it, which would open the opportunity for other political
actors to emerge that truly represent the feelings of Venezuelans and oppose in
a public and forceful manner all those cohabitation maneuvers, giving a
definitive step of rupture with the official opposition "status quo".
But the most important question we should ask
ourselves then will be: will we participate in a new electoral farce knowing
that it is part of an agreement among the most corrupt that has taken over
Venezuela? And on the other hand, would all Venezuelans make common cause so that
this rupture - which will necessarily have to come with Juan Guaidó and his
associates of corruption - on the part of honorable factors of society - who
refuse to continue playing the game to the official opposition in order to
continue cohabiting - materializes a political support capable of changing the
course of events? Wouldn't this be the moment to demand a Popular Plebiscite
Consultation so that it would be the Venezuelan people who decide?
The answers to these questions will only be
available to Venezuelans at the last minute - as is our cultural way of
resolving things - when, with water around our necks, we are faced with the
imperative need to decide sincerely and in the eyes of the whole world whether
we want to be slaves of a totalitarian socialist regime or citizens of a free
society. That will only depend on us...
Caracas, December 10, 2019
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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