From an interview to historian Jorge Olavarría in 2002:
Q: Is there a possibility that in Venezuela a similar or similar event (to April 11, 2002) will be repeated, that there will be a reaction especially from the Armed Forces? Is there a danger of a new coup d'état in Venezuela?
A: "I do not believe that there is a possibility, I believe that it is inevitable.
Q: Why do you think so?
A: Because the way the pieces have fallen after the first earthquake indicate that there is going to be a second earthquake. That is to say, it is almost impossible to think that with the exacerbation of the mood, that with the little maneuvers that are being made by the government to dilute in some commissions that are not going to find the truth, or that are going to look for a dialogue with a series of infinite speeches, where what we are all going to do is to be more stunned than what we are, with all that is happening, is going to produce such exasperation in the country that this will inevitably lead to a new situation of confrontation within the Armed Forces, which I hope will not happen, but which I do not see how it can be avoided" (see in Spanish Olavarría y el 11 de abril, Pastillas de Memoria, Interview by José Israel González to Jorge Olavarría, Programa Historia Viva, in https://youtu.be/68JadxKJMzQ?t=2975) (highlighted our).
Why do I consider it important to recall this opinion of historian Jorge Olavarría, especially when in this same interview Olavarría indicated that what happened on April 11, 2002 was a popular rebellion (see Civic-electoral rebellion, at https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/civil-electoral-rebellion.html). Because without being a prophet of disaster, but a profound connoisseur of the history of Venezuela, and especially of those moments when power changed hands in this country, Olavarría predicts that a new situation of popular rebellion in the future will "inevitably precede a new situation of confrontation within the Armed Forces". Olavarría did not say when it would be, but he did say what the conditions are for such an earthquake to occur.
With this in mind, and without being a fortune teller of political earthquakes, this is what many of us are visualizing in Venezuela for July 28 and 29, if the regime insists on ignoring the political reality of the country expressed in a historic electoral campaign, where the people have expressed in a forceful manner and before the eyes of the whole world, the need for a political change in Venezuela. But the regime insists on looking the other way, deepening the persecution, the electoral fraud and the violation of Human Rights.
The only ones capable of being the faithful of the scales of the historical controversy that will arise when the regime proclaims Nicolás Maduro Moros "winner" in the presidential elections in the early morning of July 29, will be the Armed Forces. But the only way to convince the military and the world, but especially Venezuelans who will not believe that result, will be that each and every ballot box, containing the reality expressed and verified with their own senses in a ballot, by the Venezuelan people on the day of the election, be opened and counted, in each and every one of the ballot boxes, be opened and counted, in each center of the country, by all the interested parties and the Venezuelan people, "ballot by ballot", as expressed for everyone to understand, María Corina Machado (MCM) when she said "Let's go for the formalization of that defeat, counting ballot paper by ballot paper!" (see in Spanish @mariacorinaya on X, formerly Twitter, in https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/1796679136095727943).
"Ballot by ballot" is not just any expression. The people will not mobilize in the face of an announcement by the regime proclaiming Maduro the winner -which is very likely to happen- without a line of what to do coming from the political leadership. And this line must undoubtedly be none other than NOT ACCEPTING THE RESULT UNTIL ALL BALLOTS ARE SCRUTINIZED BALLOT BY BALLOT. Once that statement is made by MCM and especially Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as candidate, people should peacefully place themselves at the entrance of all the centers DEMANDING PRECISELY THAT. This is what I called in a previous note CIVIC-ELECTORAL REBELLION, which would demand that the Popular Sovereignty, which resides untransferably in the Venezuelan people, as provided in Article 5 of the Constitution, be imposed over an unconstitutional electoral law and regulations.
No one here is suggesting violence in the centers, but rather that all Venezuelans should stand up until the Constitution is respected, especially the military. That is what happened on April 11, 2002, when we Venezuelans demanded loudly, in a historic march, the resignation of the President of the Republic, as our fully constitutional right.
If the regime does not accept the Venezuelans' reality of change, this civic-electoral rebellion will lead "inevitably to a new situation of confrontation within the Armed Forces", according to the prediction made by Jorge Olavarría in 2002, because they are perfectly aware, as are the rest of Venezuelans, that this unbearable situation with the regime has to end, and we all hope that it will be in a peaceful and electoral manner. And unlike Olavarría, I believe that this confrontation can be avoided if the military supports this solution, which undoubtedly exposes the real result for everybody and where we are all involved.
The only way to preserve peace and harmony among Venezuelans is that absolutely all the votes of all the voting tables are counted before the eyes of the whole world, the witnesses and the Venezuelan people. We are living the consequence of having ignored that fundamental principle of democracy: there will be no peace in a people until the decision of the majority is demonstrated, in full view of everyone. And an automated electoral system, fixed and distorted for 20 years, which hides part of the votes behind some machines, will never be able to assure that to a people. Venezuelans are going to have to learn it the hard way if we do not pay attention to this principle and change once and for all the way we count our votes.
Caracas, July 11, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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