It is incredible that people are still amazed by the electoral phenomenon that is happening in Colombia. But even more incredible is that the political world still believes that someone can win elections without understanding the technological, social and human phenomenon that already exists behind the instantaneous communications produced by social networks.
People still wonder why a "little old man" reached more people in Colombia through the Tik-Tok(*) application than in a thousand tours mounted on a stage, shouting the same hollow slogans of the past. He reached many through the new media, in a country that, like other Latin American countries, has a political class that is more than defeated and on its way to extinction. It sounds exaggerated, but it is so. We are already living this phenomenon in Venezuela, only without a democratic system and without opposition leaders to say something to the country. When the floodgate of freedom opens, this reality will become more than evident in Venezuela.
Who would have thought that a businessman, in third place in the polls, would be disputing -now in first place- the Presidency of Colombia, to a professional politician backed a thousand percent by the international left? And especially a candidate who did not bother to go around the country, campaigning and sending his message of triumph from a cell phone in his kitchen at home.
In the past I have touched on this topic in some depth about the technological phenomenon in the political field, so I will only recommend to those who wish to go a little further, to read the most important references (see in Spanish 2012, La Conciencia de tras de las redes sociales, en https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2012/04/la-conciencia-detras-de-redes-sociales.html; 2014, Guerreros del teclado, en https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2014/04/guerreros-del-teclado.html; 2015, La política ya no es de los políticos, en https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2015/06/la-politica-ya-no-es-de-los-politicos.html). However, I wish to emphasize what Colombia has already demonstrated: any candidate of the old political status can be defeated by anyone, as long as there is an electoral system in which the population can trust.
But for that to happen, some pre-existing conditions were necessary for this phenomenon to occur. A second round in Colombia was necessary to guarantee that the Colombian Chavista candidate would not win in one go. And Colombians owe that to the political Constitution resulting from the Constituent Assembly of 1991: "If no candidate obtains such majority, a new vote will be held three weeks later, in which only the two candidates who have obtained the highest votes will participate. The one who obtains the highest number of votes shall be declared president", according to Article 190 of the 1991 Constitution (see in Spanish Article 190 of the Colombian Constitution, at https://www.constitucioncolombia.com/titulo-7/capitulo-1/articulo-190).
In other words, not only the technological phenomenon had to do with what is happening in the brother country, but the majority of citizens, which added together all the different tendencies resulted in more than the preference of the largest minority, had to impose itself in the end. That is democracy by the middle road. Without the proper constitutional system, Colombia would not be on the brink but already falling to the Venezuelan socialist cliff.
According to an updated measurement, published by the Colombian portal La República, as of May 31, 2022, the candidate Rodolfo Hernández is already in first place in voting intentions, with 52.3%, with Gustavo Petro in second place with 45.1% (see in Spanish La República, in https://www.asuntoslegales.com.co/actualidad/rodolfo-hernandez-con-52-3-supera-en-intencion-de-voto-a-petro-que-marca-45-1-3375161). This gives us Latin Americans a breath of fresh air that a people can be aware, for the most part, of the misfortune that can befall them if they choose their rulers badly.
The traditional Colombian political class, all united in the candidacy of Federico Gutiérrez, languished with 23.91% in the final result of the first round (see in Spanish El Comercio, Results of the Colombian Presidential Election 2022, in https://tinyurl.com/yrm43b7w). These results tell us a great deal about the need for an urgent change in the discourse and actions of traditional Latin American politicians and their approach to the problems of the population. The sincerity and proven honesty of those who pretend to exercise power is being severely questioned by the people. This is not a phenomenon that happens only in Colombia. Hence, Rodolfo Hernandez is being called the "Colombian Trump", or someone who breaks the paradigms of a decadent political class.
An individual coming from civil society, a successful businessman, enters politics, among other reasons, for having been a victim of the evils that politicians must correct as their primary responsibility, making political corruption the main axis of his electoral campaign. This is not uncommon in all countries, so we will continue to see this phenomenon, which will soon become customary in our continent.
Venezuela and its politicians have some lessons to learn from this Colombian process. The first is that it was not possible for Colombia to have a certain possibility of rescue from the communist onslaught from abroad and its guerrilla associates from within, without the existence of a strong institutionality. That strong institutionality was given by the Colombians in a National Constituent Assembly in 1991. Without a second round, Colombians would now have a terrorist as President, and a region irremediably deepening its destabilization.
Secondly, the absence of a credible official opposition, demonstrated in the recent Meganálisis survey, which indicates that 77.3% of Venezuelans "believe that opposition political parties and their leaders are sold out to the government, and work for chavismo" (see in Spanish Meganalysis, Public Report (Part I), Disclosable Results (partial information), April 2022, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1529665491731730434), the fact that, in the absence of the regime that usurps power in Venezuela, a candidate not aligned with the party clique, such as Rodolfo Hernandez, would have to win the elections.
However, the usurper is still in Miraflores, but that in no way eliminates the phenomenon, it deepens it. That is why the case of the "Colombian Trump" will also be repeated in Venezuela, when the conditions for that exist, and with more intensity, by virtue of the fact that here the Venezuelan political class did collaborate, and still collaborates, actively with the regime, as the population believes. In Colombia, at least, with perhaps a few, but very heavy exceptions, the political class has not collaborated for the communist left to come to power, and even so, Hernandez goes to the second round with very high probabilities of reaching the Presidency of Colombia.
And finally, in third place, traditional politicians must learn from this Colombian process that they can no longer deceive an informed population. Speeches on stage are no longer valid to know who shouts better or harder against the tragedy of which they were the authors or catalysts of exception. Pretending to continue deceiving Venezuelans with an election with the regime is no longer a stupidity but a crime. The peoples seek and find their own way. In Venezuela we will find ours to get rid of this tyranny, and along the way those who supported it from the opposition will also fall. And at that moment, the one who best embodies, as in Colombia, the best solution for an uncertain tomorrow will emerge, after we have resolved the Refoundation of the country. That is where we are heading to...
Caracas, June 2, 2022
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(*) Erratum: The original publication included the name Tic - Toc of the referred application, when it should indicate Tik - Tok as it is the correct name.
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