The illegal actions of the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros began to go beyond Venezuelan borders. Not only are we Venezuelans the victims of a regime that the International Community considers illegitimate since 2018, the year in which Maduro did whatever he wanted and proclaimed himself President of the Republic with the help of a bought opposition, but now, justifying himself with a referendum where less than 10% of the Venezuelan electorate actually participated, he now intends to bypass the international legal order and the Agreement signed in Geneva in 1966 with Great Britain, threatening to occupy the Essequibo territory, by creating a supposedly non-existent State, with all that this implies.
The above in no way justifies that the Cooperative Republic of Guyana has occupied -they have- the Essequibo territory since 2004, when Hugo Chávez Frías and his then Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nicolás Maduro Moros, the current usurper, authorized Guyana in a Joint Declaration to develop the Zone in Reclamation. Both countries had to settle their differences before proceeding to carry out any activity within that territory.
Without going into the details of what the regime says regarding the final figures of participation in its consultative referendum of December 3, the decisions regarding the Essequibo are not in Venezuela, but in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, in accordance with the Agreement signed between the parties in 1966, because it was so decided at the time by two governments legitimately recognized by the International Community, no matter how many mobilizations, laws for the creation of a new State, and a "remote control" government of the Essequibo that the Venezuelan regime invents (see in Spanish La Voz de América, Venezuela will try to govern the Essequibo "by remote control" in a first phase, in https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/venezuela-tratara-de-gobernar-el-esequibo-a-control-remoto-en-una-primera-fase-analistas/7386408.html).
The recognition of the ICJ, so much disregarded by the regime, was given by both governments, of Venezuela and Great Britain, long before the existence of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana, to that instance through the Geneva Agreement, whose text clearly established that the decision of the mechanism to settle the differences would be given to the UN Secretary General.
Indeed, Article IV, paragraph 2, of the Geneva Agreement of 1966, establishes that if the parties do not agree on the choice of one of the means of settlement provided for in Article 33 of the Charter of the United Nations, they shall refer the decision on the means of settlement to an international body they agree upon, and if they do not agree on one, to the Secretary General of the United Nations (see in Spanish Geneva Agreement 1966), in http://www.consulvenevigo.es/subido/ACUERDO%20GINEBRA%20ONU%201966.pdf).
In turn, Article 33 of the Charter of the United Nations states: "1. The parties to a dispute, the continuance of which is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, shall, first of all, seek a solution by negotiation, inquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means of their own choice" (see in Spanish UN Charter, in https://www.oas.org/36ag/espanol/doc_referencia/carta_nu.pdf) (resaltado nuestro).
The above leaves out the regime's verbiage of insisting on not accepting the jurisdiction of the ICJ, which otherwise already decided on its own jurisdiction by stating: "If the Parties gave their consent to the judicial settlement of their dispute under Article IV, paragraph 2, of the Geneva Agreement-Decision of the Secretary-General binding on the Parties-Article IV, paragraph 2, refers to Article 33 of the Charter of the United Nations, which includes judicial settlement as a means of dispute settlement-The means of dispute settlement available to the Secretary-General, to which the Parties gave their consent, include judicial settlement. Whether the consent given by the Parties to judicial settlement of their dispute was subject to any conditions-Whether the Secretary-General should follow a particular order in choosing the means of dispute settlement enumerated in Article 33 of the Charter-No obligation on the Secretary-General to follow a particular order or consult with the Parties on his choice" (see in Spanish ICJ Judgment of December 18, 2020, in https://revistas.urosario.edu.co/xml/4295/429566597007/index.html) (emphasis added).
If the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros, in its drunkenness of power, believes that by taking troops to the border of the Reclamation Zone, fabricating without popular support an Essequibo State, appointing a Governor, licensing its companies to exploit the oil wealth in the area, it will be victorious in its outrage as it has been with us within the borders of Venezuela, it will be in for a surprise (see in Spanish Diario Las Américas, Maduro ordena crear provincia y otorga licencia para explotar petróleo en el Esequibo, at https://www.diariolasamericas.com/america-latina/maduro-ordena-crear-provincia-y-conceder-licencia-explotar-petroleo-el-esequibo-n5347754).
The laws that govern between States and the Agreements validly signed between them are enforced with multinational force, that is why the UN Security Council exists, and Guyana now has a seat there, Venezuela does not. In this field, it is no good for Padrino to take soldiers without equipment to threaten assholes to the border with Guyana, or to put a broken bat as governor of the Essequibo, or to hand out licenses to companies that will not be able to operate in that territory. What will be valid here will be the force of the laws that govern between the States and that will be supported precisely in the above mentioned arguments to put the regime in its place.
If Venezuela had the strength and the cannons of the USA, we would not be talking about this issue. Putin invaded Ukraine without fear of major consequences because he was backed by his nuclear bombs and the terror of the world in the face of a Third World War. Our size as a country obliges us to respect the international legal order much more than those who have the force to impose their will.
These criminals will not enter -for now- the Essequibo territory, but they will create enough noise to distract the world to avoid elections in 2024. But on the way Venezuela may lose the Essequibo. If Venezuela loses the trial at the ICJ due to the non-concurrence of the arguments and the presentation of our historical memory demonstrating our rights over the Essequibo territory, I doubt very much that the regime will be able to sustain itself even one more day after that international sentence. I believe that their own supporters would eat them alive....
By opening the Pandora's Box of the Essequibo, Maduro decided to play Rosalinda -the Essequibo- to stay in power. But if he decides to go to the next phase of what they have done, I do not believe that the gamble will be as successful as it happened in Ernesto Luis Rodriguez's song, on the contrary. They will lose -and they with us- more than "the araguaney, the blanket and the hat" of the "llanero" who played Rosalinda. The reasons are published by world-class political analyst Ian Bremmer: “First, because the Americans would strongly oppose. The Brazilians would strongly oppose, and you'd see a lot of sticks as a consequence of that against an economy that can't really afford them. But also, China is a partial owner of the massive oil find that is just offshore this territory in Guyana, and they are the only friend that spends real money with the Venezuelans right now. …” (see Ian Bremmer, Gzero, 12-06-2023, Everything is political, in https://www.gzeromedia.com/in-60-seconds/world/bidens-israel-policy-hurts-his-2024-reelection-chances-from-all-angles).
So, where are they going to run to with that swollen leg? Who will accompany them in this madness? Cuba and Caricom? Those will be the first to accommodate Guyana. China? Least of all, as Bremmer says, the Russia in conflict that brought out the military stationed in Venezuela for its war? These criminals found the worst moment to open that Pandora's Box. Maduro and his regime have no other way out than to be counted in the terms agreed with the International Community. Anything different, like this Pandora's Box they have just opened, will not only mean delaying and making their exit more painful, but also modifying the way they will get out...
Caracas, December 6, 2023
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TIC’s & Derechos Humanos,
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
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