By Luis Manuel Aguana
It is mandatory for any Venezuelan to express words of recognition and congratulations to María Corina Machado (MCM) for winning the Nobel Peace Prize, regardless of any political differences one may have with her. And I say mandatory, not only because MCM did not seek it, far from it, but because of the recognition given by the Nobel Committee to the opposition struggle of the noble Venezuelan people, led by MCM, against the Venezuelan tyranny. MCM managed to unite the national sentiment to expel Nicolás Maduro Moros' regime from power into a single force, demonstrating that intention in a massive and indisputable manner on July 28, 2024. Hats off from this modest corner of the internet!
That said, from now on, it is imperative to focus on the consequences that this global recognition will have on Venezuelan politics, both internally and externally, and of course on the outcome that will necessarily result from the situation presented to us by the US government, and in particular its President, Donald Trump, with the military siege he is maintaining on the Cartel of the Suns, which they claim to have evidence is led by the same figures who run the Venezuelan government.
The Nobel Peace Prize as a catalyst for a resolution
The reality of going from being a persecuted opposition leader in hiding to a Nobel Prize winner fighting for freedom against an authoritarian regime puts things in a different perspective in the eyes of the country and the international community. Now it has become almost an obligation for the world to resolve the Venezuelan problem. In other words, the Nobel Prize acts as a catalyst for the situation, to the point that if the US Fourth Fleet in the Caribbean was previously only a threat to make the regime flee, now the Nobel Peace Prize designation makes it a reality.
And in the same way, Nicolás Maduro Moros' regime will begin to perceive it, feeling now in the same situation as Saddam Hussein did when he felt the US invasion in 2003 was inevitable. And so they decided to implement, thank God unsuccessfully, a “scorched earth” plan in order to blame the invader and his local detractors for the catastrophe. Let's look at Saddam Hussein's response in 2003 to infer a hypothetical reaction to a similar situation in Venezuela at this time:
“The "scorched earth"
plan that Saddam Hussein was feared to implement—when his overthrow in the
2003 invasion became unavoidable—consisted of a strategy to destroy Iraq's
vital infrastructure, aiming to create a massive humanitarian crisis.
The main goal was not only to slow
the advance of the U.S.-led Coalition forces, but also to blame the
Coalition for the destruction and human suffering. This, they hoped, would
generate strong international opposition to the war and halt the invasion.
Key components of the plan,
according to U.S. and British intelligence at the time, included orders to:
1. Destroy oil fields: There were fears that oil wells
would be set on fire, as happened in Kuwait during the 1991 Gulf War, to cause
an environmental and economic disaster.
2. Ruin critical infrastructure: Blow up bridges,
dams, electrical power plants, and transportation networks to paralyze the
country and hinder the invading troops' movement.
3. Destroy food storage sites: To trigger famine
and a humanitarian crisis.
4. Use weapons of mass destruction (chemical or
biological): There was a fear these would be used against invading forces or
even the Iraqi population to cause mass casualties and chaos.
What Happened in
Reality?
Although Coalition forces feared
this strategy, sources indicate that the level of destruction ordered by the
retreating Iraqi forces was less than expected. Organized resistance
quickly crumbled, and a large number of Iraqi troops simply chose not to fight.
The destruction of bridges and oil wells was not as widespread as anticipated.
Instead, most of the destruction and chaos—especially the looting of public buildings and institutions—occurred in the power vacuum that emerged immediately following the collapse of Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist regime and the Coalition's capture of Baghdad” (see IA Gemini, Saddam Hussein's "scorched earth" plan, in https://g.co/gemini/share/0af66fd133ad).
Is there a possibility that such a plan could be implemented in Venezuela, following a possible intervention by the US and/or the possible disappearance of the regime's leaders? Absolutely. Armed elements of the regime guard all of Venezuela's oil facilities, have access to food because they are the ones who distribute it to the masses, and control bridges, dams, power plants, and transportation networks, as described in Saddam Hussein's plan. All this without counting the regime's associations with the ELN, the FARC dissidents, and the notorious armed collectives with a violent franchise in the major cities.
How would that be counteracted? In the same way as in Iraq in 2003, by ensuring that the regime's armed forces do not carry out orders that threaten our heritage and, most importantly, that whoever is responsible for security after the possible overthrow of the regime, in the midst of the power vacuum that would ensue, acts quickly and effectively to prevent an equally possible catastrophe involving the other armed groups. In Iraq, the US troops took care of that.
Would it be the same here? After the military deployment observed in recent days by US troops in Grenada and Trinidad, that seems to be the reality. In other words, an intervention similar to that in Iraq, with US soldiers on the ground, because otherwise it would not be possible to maintain order afterwards and avoid a “scorched earth” policy.
Security of María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia
One consequence of this award at this historic moment in Venezuela is that it raises the relative importance of MCM in the eyes of the world and the political factions in Venezuela (and perhaps also, as a consequence, the importance of Edmundo González Urrutia), in a possible “scorched earth” plan as described above. With this Nobel Prize, MCM will have consolidated her leadership forever, in the face of the regime and its political opposition.
That Nobel Prize has placed her on another level of competition—in another league—making her unbeatable in any future political confrontation. It would not be unreasonable to think that in their flight, faced with the possible imminence of change, they would also add to their “scorched earth” plan an attempt on the life of this new world-class figure, making it necessary to redouble her security wherever she may be (and EGU as well), a location that is most likely already known to the regime.
Attitude of the non-designated for the Nobel Peace Prize
The Nobel Peace Prize was a distinction eagerly awaited by US President Donald Trump. This Nobel Peace Prize is being widely reported around the world, not because of who was chosen, MCM, but because of who was NOT chosen. And this politician of global influence was significantly affected by not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, despite the excuses given by the Nobel Committee.
The White House's (Trump's, of course) forceful statement that “the Nobel Committee has shown that it prioritizes politics over peace” in light of MCM's selection is a highly sensitive issue, especially since the expected outcome of the US military operation in Venezuela has not yet materialized. (see in Spanish Infobae, La reacción de la Casa Blanca tras el anuncio del premio Nobel de la Paz para María Corina Machado, in https://www.infobae.com/estados-unidos/2025/10/10/la-reaccion-de-la-casa-blanca-tras-el-anuncio-del-premio-nobel-de-la-paz-para-maria-corina-machado/). Certainly, the White House's accusation has its historical roots in the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the then president of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, for political reasons.
According to Infobae, “Since returning to the White House for his second term in January, Trump has repeatedly insisted that he deserved the Nobel Prize for his role in resolving numerous conflicts, a claim that observers say is exaggerated”, But even if it is exaggerated, the fact now directly affects us Venezuelans.
Will this “affront” by the Nobel Committee toward Donald Trump have any effect on the outcome in Venezuela? We are dealing with a completely unpredictable individual with boundless vanity, where anything can influence his decisions. That statement from the White House could be described, at the very least, as petty towards MCM and the struggle of the Venezuelan people, and clearly shows the discomfort caused to the US President by the appointment of another person, especially one whom he had taken under his wing to resolve the Venezuelan case.
In the current circumstances and given how far things have gone, only Donald Trump has the key to prevent a possible “scorched earth” plan in our country and bring about a change in the political situation in Venezuela, no one else.
Given this circumstance, MCM wisely dedicated the Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump: “In her acceptance speech, Corina dedicated the prize to the ‘suffering people’ of Venezuela and to US President Donald Trump for ‘his decisive support for our cause” (see in Spanish El Confidencial, María Corina Machado, Premio Nobel de la Paz 2025: "Dedico este premio al presidente Trump", in https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2025-10-10/anuncio-premio-nobel-de-la-paz-2025_4222939/). Let's hope that this gesture of undeserved blame on others will be enough when deciding the future of Venezuelans.
Caracas, October 10, 2025
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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