By Luis Manuel Aguana
The buzz continues surrounding the photograph of María Corina Machado (MCM) in Panama alongside the very political class that the electorate had rejected in October 2023—a rejection that gave her the full backing she needed to put an end to a style of politics that had let the nation down for over two decades.
She had defeated not only the regime at its own game—by conducting a manual vote for the primaries and outmaneuvering a Primary Commission poised to surrender to the automated CNE—but also a political class that had refused to even face her in those primaries. They were already politically dead before that 2023 electoral contest even took place.
Having emerged as the winner and undisputed leader of the Venezuelan opposition, MCM was in a position to dictate the terms of the confrontation with the regime. Yet, mistakes began to be made. It remains unclear whether these stemmed from self-serving advice intended to cause her failure, or from the euphoria of a triumphant position—the mindset of those who, following a dazzling victory, believe themselves to be natural winners destined to overcome any obstacle.
First, she had to submit to the rules of a criminal regime, going to a Supreme Court under Maduro's orders to request the suspension of her political disqualification from participating in elections with conditions unilaterally decided by the regime itself, after that same gang of thugs had publicly abandoned the Barbados agreements.
Then, she had to agree to participate through a proxy—not even the one she herself chose—in an electoral process that was clearly rigged, and to top it all off, one that the regime decided on in conjunction with its own collaborationist opposition.
On July 28, 2024, it was the Venezuelan people who gave the victory to the opposition to the regime, now embodied in the person of María Corina Machado (MCM), not the eventual candidate, and without the help of those who claimed to be in the opposition before MCM's primary victory. The people spontaneously gave their support to an electoral campaign that I considered admirable at the time (see María Corina's Bare Property, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/maria-corinas-bare-property.html).
We all know what happened on June 28, 2024, but the struggle continued. However, contexts shifted, as the political game is a long one. January 3, 2026, arrived, and it turned out that those "defeated" in 2023 had found another way to survive—much like crawling insects after an atomic blast.
Regardless of the fact that MCM’s opposition leadership among the populace was indisputable, the ability of those displaced by her—and her disastrous interim government—to influence key players in U.S. politics remains "alive and kicking," as we say in Venezuela. This is to say nothing of their incredible knack for securing significant funds from the U.S. government over more than four years—funds for which they never accounted, nor did they explain how their key leaders continue to live abroad.
Could this be what is influencing the new "unity" shown in the photograph from Panama?
Some suggest this "unity" is being presented to show a united front for a potential new negotiation with the new Rodríguez regime in Venezuela. They argue it is "necessary" because, without it, investors won't come. But isn't that exactly what the "opposition" did with the regime for years prior to Nicolás Maduro Moros's departure? Negotiating yet another electoral process "with conditions," only this time under U.S. tutelage?
And I ask myself: Will the U.S.—or rather, President Donald Trump—actually care who wins an election in Venezuela? What truly matters to them is that our country ceases to be a U.S. national security issue and becomes an economically reliable partner. We aren't talking about specific personalities here, but the country's situation. There are plenty of people waiting to do business, and that doesn't necessarily mean doing so with MCM in government. And that would be fantastic for those post-atomic cockroaches.
I have always believed that it is leaders who shape history, not their circumstances. Circumstances change because leaders steer the course of events. During World War II, Winston Churchill could have told the British people that an invasion—and the country's subsequent defeat by Nazi Germany—was imminent, and that they should simply submit. But he did not. All signs pointed to a Nazi victory should they invade British territory. At the time, there were even prominent diplomatic voices in Britain arguing that negotiating with Hitler was the best course of action. Yet, Churchill vowed war against them if they dared to invade the island. That was his role; that was his leadership. And that courage changed the course of history, for the entire nation rallied behind its Prime Minister, with a majority ready to die defending their territory armed with nothing but sticks and hoes.
But without going too far afield, our own history offers more than enough clear examples of this attitude, demonstrating that decisive leadership doesn't have to "bend to avoid breaking"—as Ramos Allup put it—and still emerge victorious. The Battle of Boyacá was lost until “Colonel Juan José Rondón a hero of the Battle of Queseras del Medio led his small detachment of 14 lancers and charged Barreiro's horsemen at a point where the Spanish regulars were crowded onto a narrow track through swampland. This sudden counter-attack by the lancers of the Llano Arriba squadron, as portrayed in the sculpture, was a decisive point in the winning of the battle.” (see Vargas Swamp Lancers, in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vargas_Swamp_Lancers). A spectacular monument commemorating that event stands in Paipa, Boyacá, Colombia, honoring the heroism of the Lancers of the Pantano de Vargas, led by the Venezuelan Juan José Rondón.
It was there that those barefoot, ragged, and starving fighters—having crossed the Pisba Páramo—did not stop to ask whether it was possible to defeat one of the finest armies in the known world; they simply went out and did it.
Not everything can be *Realpolitik*. That depends on political leadership. MCM remains the undisputed leader of the process of change that must come to Venezuela. Yet, if she fails to grasp that it is the circumstances she must change—rather than the other way around, precisely because she is the one called upon to do so—she will become just another name on the long list of pseudo-leaders who have led us to this slaughterhouse for over 27 years. It is always possible to correct one’s course and cast off what is useless, but not when it is too late…
Caracas, May 5, 2026
Blog: TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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