I continue to be amazed by the emphasis that some factors of the opposition in Venezuela have given to “how” María Corina Machado (MCM) and Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU) will crystallize the promise to swear in the latter as President of the Republic on January 10, to the point that nothing else is being talked about or analyzed in the country, promoting a degree of desperation that only helps the regime's ground, by reducing the credibility of the figure of the MCM, today measured in more than 80%, as we shall see further on in this note.
And no one could deny the importance of this fact. However, I think that even more important is why these same “opposition” factors insist on this turning point in Venezuelan politics. Because in my opinion it would be much more important for us to think what would happen if Maduro insists on staying, that is, to materialize the coup d'état to the Popular Sovereignty on January 10, and what would be unleashed for the country if that were to happen, given the external conditions, which are already a certain fact and which will occur after the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20, 2025.
Then we should rather be asking ourselves the right question. Instead of wondering how EGU is going to be sworn in, the question should be focused on what would happen to Venezuela -and of course to the regime-, if he does not. And I say this not to evade what MCM and EGU may or may not be doing to ensure that they take possession of what the popular will granted to the true winner of those July 28 elections, but because of the implications for our country if they insist on not respecting that will of the Venezuelan people.
I will begin by emphasizing something mentioned in the recent Meganálisis poll of October, where to the question “Regardless of who you voted for, according to your opinion and perception, who won the election of last July 28?” And the answer of 90.7% of those polled was that EGU won that election. According to Meganálisis, “9 out of 10 Venezuelans have the perception that Edmundo González Urrutia won the election of last July 28” (see in Spanish Encuestadora Meganálisis Punto de Corte, November 13, 2024, in https://x.com/Meganalisis/status/1857104701709266995).
This, in my opinion, is the most important aspect of this survey. More than 90% of Venezuelans consider it a reality that EGU is the undisputed winner of July 28, INDEPENDENT OF WHO THEY VOTED FOR. And that is devastating for the regime, because PERCEPTION IS REALITY. Let's see why, according to Behavioral Science:
A very important finding of Behavioral Science is that in whatever happens to us, perception is reality. What really matters in the end is what the person perceives, not what is actually happening. “For decades, behavioral and cognitive scientists have studied how people experience social interactions, form judgments, and store memories, as well as what biases influence daily life.”... “Behavioral science can shed light on the complex processes involved in forming perceptions.” They can help understand “how people react to the sequence and duration of events and how they rationalize experiences once they occur” (see Richard B. Chase and Sriram Dasu, in Harvard Business Review, HBR - Want to perfect your company's service? Use Behavioral Science - June 2001, in https://hbr.org/2001/06/want-to-perfect-your-companys-service-use-behavioral-science).
In spite of any lie that the State's communicational apparatus may try to coin, this perception has already crystallized to the point that it no longer belongs only to Venezuelans, not to mention that it has been backed up with evidence before the International Community, so the next step cannot be other than materializing the popular will to transfer power to the legitimate president elected on July 28. And that is a fact that should happen sooner rather than later.
But I had already addressed the issue of perception applied to our political reality, in 2016 in a note entitled “Perception is reality”, based on the application of Behavioral Science in the area of services, months after the publication of HBR's article in the year 2001 (see in Spanish La percepción es realidad, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2016/08/la-percepcion-es-realidad.html). The current situation shows us that perception is still reality.
Behavioral Science research helps to understand things like why people blame a person from whom they expect something, rather than the system on which they depend when something goes wrong, and for which that person is not at fault. People NEED to always blame SOMEONE, not something. It would be very interesting to go deeper into this in Venezuelan politics, where people still do not know where to put the blame for what happens to them when expectations fail, whether it is on the leaders or the system in which they are immersed. This is especially interesting when everyone has an expectation placed on people, when the final result does not depend exclusively on them but on a very complex environment. Sound familiar?
It is clear that MCM and EGU are making an effort on which the expectation of January 10 will finally depend, an effort whose details we do not need to know and whose evolution must remain confidential to the majorities, on pain of a resounding failure to achieve the objective pursued. But if the result is not what everyone expects, the hyenas of the so-called “opposition” will have someone to blame to justify getting into bed with the regime and convincing the people to contest regional elections in 2025 against the general decision.
This is because they are the first beneficiaries of the failure of the MCM and EGU on 10E, not only because the electoral system of the regime is already deeply wounded by its massive fraud, but also because nobody would vote in those regional elections, as evidenced by the pollster Meganálisis when indicating that 72, 2% of Venezuelans would not vote in regional elections with the current CNE (see Encuestadora Megánalisis, As long as the post-electoral crisis of last July 28 continues, and the institutional image of the CNE is not recovered, the regional elections of 2025 will not attract the majority. We would be back to another event of very low participation, in https://x.com/Meganalisis/status/1856199186699501949).
Then, to whom is it more convenient to emphasize on knowing that “how” than to them? We should not fall into this anguish that is not exactly ours, especially when the answer to the question “Do you trust María Corina Machado”, asked by Meganálisis pollster, was a resounding YES in 80.9%. In the same question about EGU, the answer is an unquestionable YES of 60.6% (see in Spanish Meganalysis Pollster, MCM Leadership that marks a milestone, in https://x.com/Meganalisis/status/1856199184405180617).
If we already gave our firm backing to MCM and EGU and we have measured those very high levels of confidence, then let those who are betting on the failure of MCM and EGU be dying to know what is being done for EGU to be sworn in on 10E as promised, and let us concentrate on what doors have been opened, especially in the US after Donald Trump's victory in the US elections.
Without even having been sworn in as the 47th President of the US, the world is already reacting favorably to that fact, and for reasons of space I will only mention one aspect that directly concerns us Venezuelans: the reaction of the oil market to a drop in prices due to the policies to be implemented by Trump upon his arrival to the White House in January 2025:
“Among the battery of measures he proposes, Trump plans to accelerate drilling permits to boost oil and natural gas production, alleviate “Biden's stifling tax hikes on oil, gas and coal producers,” and refill strategic oil reserves. “To keep pace with the global economy, which relies on fossil fuels for more than 80% of its energy, President Trump will drill, baby, drill,” sums up Trump's program, using the popular slogan to encourage further extraction of crude oil from American soil. “We're going to see offshore concession sales, we're going to see pipelines move much faster, we're going to see fracking on federal land and a mindset focused on reducing the cost of energy for consumers,“ Dan Eberhart, chief executive of oil services firm Canary LLC, told Bloomberg” (see in Spanish El País: Trump's victory shakes oil market: Citi believes it will get up to 20% cheaper, at https://tinyurl.com/yc3j74wb).
The above summarizes in a single paragraph the impact this will have on the price of our main export product, and the diminished interest that the oil companies that are now negotiating with Maduro to extract Venezuelan crude oil in a saturated market may have from now on. All this without taking into account the hawk just nominated by Donald Trump to occupy the State Department, Senator Marcos Rubio, enemy No. 1 of communism and Latin American dictatorships. What is coming to the regime if it insists on crystallizing the coup d'état to the Popular Sovereignty in Venezuela will increase in intensity as January arrives. Venezuelans are now perceiving that they had better start capitulating because reality has already caught up with them...
Caracas, November 15, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email:
luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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