The dynamic evolution of the political situation in Venezuela begins to outline a clearer scenario for the day after the celebration of the opposition primaries next October 2023. Between now and the celebration of the primaries, if the political situation does not change (ceteris paribus according to economic jargon), María Corína Machado (MCM) should win the presidential candidacy of the opposition.
The latest results of the pollster Meganálisis published on July 4, 2023, indicate that out of the 75.5% who would NOT vote for Maduro and Chavismo in a Presidential election, MCM has 35.1% of the intention against his closest contender, Henrique Capriles, with 7.3%. This result is competed by the 19.9% of those polled who indicate that they will not vote in the primaries (see in Spanish CATI Verdad Venezuela Survey, June 23-30, 2023 Meganálisis, Intención de voto opositorio en primarias, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1676345479607533579/photo/1).
Likewise, the voting preference trends for MCM are on the rise, jumping from 24.2% in May to 35.1% in June, while those who would not vote for any of them or do not know, are clearly going down, which indicates a better definition of people's preference. The rest of the candidates are stagnant and far away from the MCM percentages (see in Spanish Meganálisis, Tendencias de intención de voto en primarias, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1676345479607533579/photo/2).
But as I said before, this tendency will be maintained as long as the political factors continue without variation (political ceteris paribus), that is, if the enemies of the regime or of the opposition devoted to this candidacy do not do anything to change it. The measure of political disqualification exacerbated the triumphalist spirits of the followers of the MCM candidacy, in my opinion, as the regime expected, strengthening the announced path of the primary elections.
Now, as I indicated in a previous note, the fixed objective of the primary of the Unitary Platform, a sort of partisan conglomerate that designed it and appointed the National Primary Commission (CNP), has only one and solid result: a single candidate to face the regime for elections, NOT ANOTHER one. But the intentions of the MCM were always to go to the primaries so that the opposition people could decide in an election process a new opposition leadership.
The two objectives are not necessarily compatible. In other words, MCM is deliberately using this process to agglutinate the political force necessary to overtake the current opposition leadership represented by the G4 parties, current holders of the opposition political representation in Venezuela and abroad. Everyone's perception suggests that he is achieving that goal.
If elected as the sole opposition candidate in the primary process, MCM would claim for herself the undisputed support of the rest of the political forces that participated in that process, regardless of the fact that the regime has placed a political disqualification on her.
But a defining question arises at that moment: would she be declared as candidate before the regime, as indicated by the majority rule, on the basis of her leadership won at the polls, or would the CNP as arbitrator, since she is politically disqualified, decide according to the expectations of the regime by pointing out the next candidate with more votes and not disqualified, to face it in 2024? Will the NPC of the Unitary Platform decide by the criterion of the leadership of the votes, or by candidate, bending to the regime for the next one not disqualified? In other words, will it decide according to the MCM approach or according to the rule of the official opposition parties? What a difference.
The correct thing would be what everybody thinks, that the opposition votes decide the candidacy and that those who lost support it with all their organizational power. But, would all the parties of the official opposition agree to support the candidacy of MCM in spite of the refusal of the regime to accept it, and to fight to the end for it? I will not say it here, since each one has an answer for that.
Could MCM win with a wide margin and indisputably, as required, without the support of the machineries of the rest of the G4 parties, in the hypothetical case that the regime accepts by external pressure its participation in the 2024 elections? That is the big question that those promoting the candidacy of MCM should be asking themselves. If we do not all go against the regime, the parties with their respective organizations and the people of Venezuela with their votes, things will be uphill. Those who are familiar with electoral matters know that the machines matter, and much...
I do not believe that the regime will stand idly by in the face of the electoral fact that, as of today's photograph, MCM doubles the national voting intention with 26.5%, compared to Maduro's 11.9% (see in Spanish Meganálisis, Intención de voto valores absolutos, Junio 2023, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1676345482870681600/photo/1). They will try, as they are already succeeding, to atomize the opposition vote with the candidacies that do not accompany MCM, especially those of the official opposition parties that do not buy the opposition leadership of MCM. A small credible differential percentage will be enough for the regime to make the CNE work its fraudulent magic.
The first step in this crusade is, in the first place, for the CNP to declare MCM as the undisputed winner of the primaries, and to urge the rest of the political forces to join her in her struggle to challenge the regime in spite of her political disqualification. The international rejection of this measure is necessary, but not sufficient. The US Department of State already reiterated on June 30, in response to the measure against MCM “to hold accountable those who seek to thwart the will of the Venezuelan people”. According to the Washington Post Editorial Board, “At a minimum, that should mean ruling out any more sanctions relief until all opposition candidates have their political rights restored, the regime has taken verifiable steps toward the establishment of a new, credible National Electoral Council and good-faith talks with the opposition have resumed”. (see Washington Post, As Maduro tramples democracy, Biden needs a new plan to confront him, in https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/06/maduro-democracy-venezuela-biden-plan/). You will say if that will be possible. The road does not look as easy as they are selling it to us. The day will dawn and we will see...
Caracas, 8 de Julio de 2023
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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