I thank my friends and followers for their confidence in continuing to ask about the issue of the opposition primaries and the disjunctive expressed to participate or not in that event, given that according to the latest polls, it seems that those who supposedly lead in them are the radical pre-candidates not associated with the traditional partycracy.
Indeed, even after having exposed on several occasions in this blog the reasons that justify my complete rejection of that event organized by a Primary Commission of a supposed civil society that appeared out of nowhere, at the behest of the political parties of a supposed opposition that eliminated the interim, and in which neither you nor we participated in its designation, this new twist that those who had never scored in any poll appear as winners, seems to be the very confirmation of the contempt of the people for the opposition politicians who have betrayed them.
But there is a long way from this being a reflection of the true political panorama. This advantageous situation for the traditional political status quo is precisely what those who manage this electoral circus want: that Venezuelans go to these primaries with the hope that a presidential candidate who is not aligned with the opposition parties will emerge from them, as the vast majority of Venezuelans wish. But nothing could be further from the truth, because what will come out of it will be the convenient candidate for both the regime and the opposition collaborationism.
This party of the primaries, organized by the
parties of the so-called Unitary Platform, which do not represent anyone, and
covered up by a "civil society" that no one knows, will have no other
winner than those who decide who organized it.
A recent Datincorp poll from earlier this month shows that all the candidates who have run in these primaries are rejected by 66% to 83% of Venezuelans (see in Spanish Datincorp: level of rejection of candidates among voters ranges from 66% to 83%, none is excepted, in https://infocifrastv.com/nacionales/admin/datincorp-nivel-de-rechazo-de-los-candidatos-entre-los-electores-va-de-66-a-83-ninguno-se-salva/). To the question: "What do Venezuelan politics and politicians generate in voters?", the majority answer "Great disappointment" is 70%.
According to Datincorp, "In the first place, María Corina Machado does not have 50 points but only 17 points of support. When there is a polarized scenario, she rises a few more points. But the dominant element at this moment is not María Corina, nor Maduro or anyone else, but those who are not going to vote for anyone (51%), which reflects the level of discontent in the country".
Now, if, according to that survey, only 17% of Venezuelans support the aspirations -so far and if they do not withdraw before- of the leader, followed by one percentage point below by Nicolás Maduro (not counting that this could be considered as a technical tie), the million dollar question would be: What happens with that 51% of Venezuelans who are not represented there? Even, what about those who are not represented either and even less counted there, belonging to the diaspora in exile?
Then the primary mechanism DOES NOT FAVOR the Venezuelans, but those who somehow control the process, and who will define who should be the candidate of the regime in 2024 or before, and who will deliver the aspirations for change of the Venezuelans as Manuel Rosales did in 2006 and Henrique Capriles did in 2012 and 2013.
The primaries emerged for the first time in 2012 as the natural methodology to unite in a single force the opposition that was desperately fighting in the streets to get out of this abject regime. But, is this the context of what is happening now, with an opposition political leadership rejected by more than half of the population and considered a partner of the regime? Is the destiny of Venezuela going to depend on this mechanism that will elect a standard bearer with only 17% of the electoral population, to represent ALL Venezuelans who oppose the regime? To the question "For whom would Venezuelans vote to elect the President of the Republic, if the elections were held today?", the majority answer was "None" in 24%, 7 percentage points above who comes out first. It is really disappointing.
But the political opposition has successfully convinced the International Community and the country that the opposition candidate coming out of those primaries will "represent" the majority of those of us who oppose the regime, and the numbers clearly show that this is NOT SO. But the strings of those who have the power and the money, both in the regime and its opposition, will make the impossible possible, even though we citizens are convinced otherwise.
The above reminded me of a historical cartoon from 1976 by Joaquín Salvador Lavado (1), better known worldwide as Quino, creator of the famous Mafalda cartoon, where a rich and powerful character, sitting in his office, read from the Bible: "Truly I tell you, a camel shall sooner go through the eye of a needle than a rich man into the kingdom of God". Upon reading this, he dials the intercom to his secretary: "Sir?” Then the character orders him: "Get in touch with the Museum of Natural Sciences in Cairo and find out all the measurements that a camel can have... Then call the Krupp steelworks in Essen, Germany, ask for the Chief Engineer and pass me the communication...". And looking at the Bible with disdain, he throws it on the desk, smoking a cigar with satisfaction, making smoke rings, as if thinking: And who says I won't go to heaven?
Well, that is what those behind this sophisticated electoral laboratory must be thinking, which is what the mechanism of the opposition primaries has become in the current context, in order to ensure the continuity of the regime and its legitimacy before the International Community as from the next presidential elections.
If the electoral route had to be used, because there is no other alternative, as the International Community is effectively demanding Venezuela to do, I would say that whoever is going to face the regime is not any of those who have been presented so far, because they have definitely not enthused anyone enough to unite all the Venezuelan opposition aspiring for a deep change.
The political conditions of a moment in the life of the country, almost 10 years ago today, gave Henrique Capriles that opportunity, because the Venezuelan opposition had gone the whole way: primaries, consistent agglutination, street strength and willingness to collect the triumph. Unfortunately, Capriles ruined the moment with the pots and pans and salsa. And now he has the shamelessness to try again believing that those conditions will be repeated. Unfortunately for him, contexts do not repeat themselves because they want to.
And if a character appears who fits the context of maximum gravity of the current political moment, which does not exactly include primaries, maybe, just maybe, there is an opportunity for an inspired Venezuela, with that leadership at the forefront, to sweep over the collaborationists and the regime, who take for granted that they will go to heaven like Quino's rich and powerful. Fortunately, dreaming does not cost anything and miracles still happen...
Caracas, February 22, 2023
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
(1) Joaquín
Salvador Lavado(a) Quino, Bien, gracias, ¿y usted? Editorial
Lumen, 1976
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