The most recent poll of voting intentions for the 28J elections by the pollster Meganalisis, gives Edmundo González Urrutia more than 21 points of advantage over Nicolás Maduro Moros. Indeed, in its April 25-28, 2024 snapshot, the pollster shows the opposition candidate at 32.4%, over 11.2% for Nicolás Maduro Moros (see in Spanish, Flash Poll, Meganalisis Verdad Venezuela, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1785059485020516833/photo/2).
This number is consistent with the 38.5% that the same pollster measured for Dr. Corina Yoris Villasana when she was nominated by María Corina Machado (MCM). If we take into account that Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia left the agreement with the Unitary Platform, which, as you know, does not add but subtracts votes, then a drop of a little more than 6 points makes sense, taking Dr. Yoris Villasana as a reference.
But even so, I do not think it is still something to celebrate, and although the support of MCM to the unitary agreement was still more than enough to outperform Maduro, we are not facing a clean and transparent electoral system, and the regime still has a better margin of maneuver than with Dr. Corina Yoris Villasana for the possible fraud that the CNE has prepared for us.
I am of the line of thought that a difference of 21.2% is still manageable by the regime, if we take into account that the NEC will be able to manipulate at will and in its favor the absentee voters of the diaspora, plus the inflated ones that are dragging in an Electoral Registry that has not been duly audited since 2005. Hence, I dare to make some recommendations for an opposition that today has "only" 32.4% of voting intentions.
The voters of the Diaspora continue appearing in the Electoral Registry as valid voters in Venezuela, and taking into account the policy of creation of new centers of a table of the regime, which amounts to 58.79% of all the centers of the country until the election of the Essequibo Referendum, that is, 20.71% of the electoral population, it can be concluded that those millions of emigrants will move in the same proportion to those new centers of a table under the control of the regime. In other words, those votes will be migrated to centers of difficult access for the opposition and without being adequately protected.
In a recent video message from the Unitary Platform, according to them, the problem "is not in the machines" alluding that "in 98.8% of the cases these numbers (those of the citizen verification) coincide and then each political party takes its receipt for its internal computations and to have a record of what happens in each center. So far so good. Where does the problem lie? When we do not have coordinators in the polling centers and there are no witnesses at the table, the manipulation is not done in the machine, it is done in the voting notebooks where that space that you leave blank for not going to vote is usurped by another person, the machines are opened and the votes start to be generated. One vote, after vote, after vote, after vote, and when you come to see are 100 votes here, 100 votes here, 100 votes there, and at the end there is an irreversible trend and the victory of Madurismo..." (see the video presentation in the 3rd Program of the Series Venezuela, elecciones y apartheid, Voto electrónico y transmisión de resultados, in https://youtu.be/8iLtY5SC1xg?t=2138)
The public confession of this video, which is going viral in the social networks, indicates that if the opposition is not present in the voting centers, the witnesses of the ruling party will "open" the machines and will vote for the empty lines of the electoral notebook. This confirms an incredible flaw of gigantic proportions in the system, which the MUD/PU itself has accepted election after election, by allowing without protest that a machine be opened without the presence of the voter's fingerprint. How is it that the problem is not in the machines, if it is precisely the machine and its fingerprint captahuella that allows voting without the voter present! What kind of manipulation is this?
In other words, that the President of the Table has the possibility of opening a machine without the presence of the voter and its corresponding fingerprint, is, to say the least, suicidal. And it will indeed be so if we have no less than 4.2 million voters in centers of a table where the opposition will effectively NOT BE present for JEB 28, with at least 4 million people absent due to the diaspora.
But there is another message underlying this video. The citizen verification vouchers coincide in the ballot boxes that were indeed opened for verification with the machine, but what about those that were not opened? They cannot know because those boxes ARE NOT OPENED. And even less if the results in those machines, whose ballot boxes were not opened, cannot be effectively verified. And there is indeed the following trap IN THE MACHINES, especially in those centers whose machines were drawn BEFORE the effective closing of the tables, in open violation of Article 441 of the Regulations of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes (LOPE). I invite you to see the complete explanation of this phenomenon in the 3rd Program of the Series Venezuela, Elections and Apartheid, Electronic voting and transmission of results, at https://youtu.be/8iLtY5SC1xg?si=y1haZM5sVBhm4_8r.
Then, counting the fraud overlooked by the MUD/PU in their guided audits and procedures in the voting tables allowing the vote in the machines and their fingerprint readers, without the voter present, added to the fraud in the machines resulting from the violation of Article 441 of the Regulations of the LOPE, we have a careful picture for the 28J, which would make the regime pass over that 32.4%.
The first problem could be solved technically and procedurally IF THE OPPOSITION DEMANDS TO THE NEC THAT THE MACHINE WILL NOT BE OPENED UNDER ANY CONDITION IF THE ELECTOR DOES NOT PLACE HIS STAMP. This would exclude elderly people whose fingerprints have been erased with time, for which there should be a MANUAL procedure with signature of ALL WITNESSES.
On the other hand, it is worth remembering that in the centers with only one table, the machine must ALWAYS be checked. Here there is no room for drawing lots because there is only one machine. In other words, in addition to the fact that it is not technically possible for anyone to vote without their fingerprint, the machine must be audited, in the presence of the witnesses and voters, as indicated in Article 440 of the LOPE Regulations. Here the people have a vital importance, they must demand it now more than ever in front of the authorities. This requires the determination of a people, and I believe it already exists throughout the country.
In the case of the violation of the procedure established in Article 441 of the LOPE Regulation, the citizens MUST INSTRUMENT A NATIONAL SURVEILLANCE PLAN WITH PRESENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION IN EVERY MUNICIPALITY OF THE COUNTRY, because the threats for the drawing of the tables before the closing are not only from the agents and witnesses of the regime, but also from the armed GNB. In this way we can guarantee that any alternative procedure that the regime has hidden for the machines that will not be subject to citizen verification will not be applied.
These recommendations complement those already discussed in the 3rd Program of the series "Venezuela, elections and apartheid". In this election, not only a possible triumph of the opposition is at stake, but also the welfare of Venezuelans, if the regime remains in power. At this point, the 28J election is no longer the responsibility of some parties that do not represent anything for Venezuelans, so we must all show up as we did on October 22. That alone will make the difference of who applies what is necessary to ensure the triumph. We are in our own hands...
Caracas, May 2, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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