In a system of successive approximations it is proposed that we can reach the final solution of a very complex problem, through a formulation that generates a chain of intermediate results that converge to that final solution. But we have to go round and round -called iterations-, where starting from a first intermediate result, we start again, applying the same formula, and the next result is in turn the product of the first one used as input.
And so on. As we get closer to the solution of the problem, we determine whether the intermediate result makes sense as an expected solution. And we stop the process after many iterations, when we observe that the next intermediate result is equal to the previous one, or very close, with a small tolerable error, that is to say, that continuing to go around does not refine the result any further, which indicates that the final solution has been reached. The complicated thing about this method is that computers are required to perform it because of the number of variables and intermediate calculations, in addition to the indeterminate number of iterations that must be made to obtain the final result, if it is reached. But the good thing is that if the solution exists, it will eventually come to light.
This is the type of methodology proposed in numerical calculus to solve complex systems of multiple equations with numerous unknowns, and I think it would be interesting to apply this same concept to our complex political reality, even if the contexts are different, if we wish to expel all the metastases produced by the operation of removing the main cancer from the body of the Republic. Let's stay for now with just the concept, and see how it could be applied to the current political context.
Indeed, we have all been engaged -and rightly so- in a first iteration solution to a complex problem -getting rid of Maduro and his regime-, hoping that with only that one solution we have reached the final solution to the problem of this regime, without thinking about the way it managed -and still manages- to remain in power in Venezuela. Maduro is still in power not only because of the internal and external forces that support him, but also because of those in the opposition who have actively collaborated for that to happen. Hence, without solving that part of the problem, we will hardly be able to say that we have reached a final solution, regardless of the swearing in of Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU) on January 10. Let us see why.
We can say without mistake that the most important political success of the year 2024, were actually two: The first one, to achieve that the popular victory of María Corina Machado (MCM) on October 22, 2023, over the empty shells of the old opposition, materialized in a single and powerful electoral force capable of unifying a common feeling of rejection to the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros.
The second success was to get ahead of the regime on the day of the elections on July 28, intercepting the fraud they had prepared with the CNE machines, and sneaking away with more than 80% of the true minutes of the process, with the unexpected collateral positive result that meant the help of a people that the regime considered “with the process” and the Plan República. This is the fundamental proof of the rejection that the regime has in the base of the population as well as in the Armed Forces, and what guarantees us that the next step will necessarily be successful.
Now, in accordance with the aforementioned concept of successive approximations, what should be the next iteration of this process in the year 2025, after having formulated and successfully obtained the first result? Let's see:
Remember that the result -the exit of the regime- has not yet materialized. But a first positive intermediate result was achieved -votes and political inertia- which must be applied as input to the second iteration, but this time certainly not aimed at the expulsion of the regime, whose execution as a result of the first iteration is not -and does not have to be- of general knowledge, but at the expulsion of the political class that with its cohabitation made possible the maintenance of the regime.
The second iteration will have to be applied to the factors defeated on October 22, 2023 that did not remain with that defeat, and that hate to death MCM and the result of July 28 in favor of EGU, because in a next political state of affairs of the country, they do not see any oxygen for their survival, and they are rearranging themselves so that no swearing-in of the President Elect in the country takes place. They do not see survival without the Maduro regime in place.
In this sense, we see the statements of Henry Ramos Allup (HRA), exposing what we all already know, but on a date that could be considered key for what must come with the displacement of Nicolás Maduro Moros, as a consequence of the first iteration. Why HRA remembers now and not before the 2015 NA ceased in functions on January 5, 2021, indicating the illegality of that Parliament?
“The political leader, Henry Ramos Allup, considered that the most convenient thing for the country and the opposition is for the National Assembly (NA) elected in 2015 to cease its sessions and close its cycle that ended in 2021. In this way, the former Adeco leader agreed with what was expressed days before by the Secretary General of Un Nuevo Tiempo, Angelo Palmieri. The political leader previously exhorted to “conclude” the cycle of that parliament elected 9 years ago. Therefore, Ramos Allup recalled that the term of the 2015 NA began on January 5, 2016 and ended on January 5, 2021. “Despite all the harassments, it complied in the best possible way,“ wrote the former president of that Parliament that currently has no validity or recognition whatsoever, even though they want to session illegally” (see in Spanish VenezuelaNews, 22-12-2024, Henry Ramos Allup also wants to bury illegal parliament of the Venezuelan extreme right, in https://venezuela-news.com/henry-ramos-allup-tambien-quiere-sepultar-parlamento-ilegal-de-la-extrema-derecha-venezolana/) (emphasis ours).
This is really the political leadership that must leave the system in the definitive solution to be given to the country after the second iteration is applied, of course after the departure of Nicolás Maduro Moros in 2025. HRA's statements are not aimed at eliminating the NA 2015, because he already knows that it is decorative, but at recognizing the illegitimate one of the regime that exists de facto in office in the Federal Palace, closing the way from that pseudo opposition to a possible swearing-in of EGU before a National Assembly that is still recognized by the International Community.
The recognition of the 2015 NA is a motive of resentment among the defeated of the 2023 primaries, who still have not recovered from the wounds of that election and now pretend the failure of MCM and EGU in the achievement of the objective that all Venezuelans proposed to ourselves on July 28, 2024, when we overwhelmingly defeated Nicolás Maduro Moros. This conviction is corroborated by journalist Vladimir Villegas, whose political position is well known to Venezuelans, in an interview with journalist Luz Mely Reyes last December 25:
“Because the assembly of the so-called Assembly of 2015 is one of the most relevant points of discord in the opposition. And here we are talking about, here this situation even impacts the Primero Justicia (PJ) party itself because the president of that Assembly, Figuera, has been, well, linked to the sector of, Guanipa, of Juan Pablo Guanipa, and evidently the other sector, the one led by Enrique Capriles, is not with that policy of giving continuity to the Assembly of 2015. And there, Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) and Acción Democrática coincide. That is to say, the crack in the unitary platform is more than evident. This is like a fault in California, like an earthquake fault, which is visible. So this is a platform that lacks, well, well, I do not know if it lacks money, but it lacks form, and it is not unitary. It lacks unity, because as an instance it seems to have been exhausted. It would be necessary to generate for the opposition a new form of organization and also recognizing the rearrangement that has taken place. Because even though María Corina Machado still has a very, very, significant popular support in Venezuela, it is evidently not so from the political point of view. Some of the organizations that are part of the platform maintain their support, even in Primero Justicia (PJ), a part of Primero Justicia supports Maria Corina, not all of Primero Justicia supports Maria Corina. The AD of Henry Ramos, we know how his attitude has always been, he has always been a very stubborn person, but so is AD, as a party, the veteran. And then it seems that there are sectors of the opposition waiting for that ice, which means the leadership of Maria Corina, to melt as if it were placed on the sidewalk of Sur del Lago at noon, there in Maracaibo, right? That is to say that this is a slow process, but it is in full boiling. Why? Because not all the opposition is with the strategy that María Corina has. But also, not only they are not, but I assure you that a good part of those parties do not know what the strategy is. That is to say, what they have in their hands, what is the political plan they have from now on. It is said that Edmundo González Urrutia has said that he is going to come to Venezuela. Will it be true? Will he come? Will he be sworn in, who knows, in a Venezuelan river? At the border?...” (see in Spanish Efecto Cocuyo, ¿Qué ocurre internamente en la PUD y en el PSUV de cara al 10 de enero, 25-12-2024, Interview by Luz Mely Reyes to Vladimir Villegas, in https://youtu.be/U8P3sSod49U?t=131) (emphasis ours).
What is surprising in this approach is the absolute disregard of those who, even having some political credibility, still believe in the validity of the old Venezuelan politics, after the decision of the people to get out of them by backing MCM in two very important and successive elections, on October 22, 2023 and July 28, 2024.
Amazingly, Villegas separates the popular support from the political support of the parties, giving preeminence to the latter over the votes of Venezuelans. And I ask myself: what is political support in the end if it is not the support of the people? That is the real bottom of all this problem! For them the people are not worth a damn, only the parties. And if those parties do not know the MCM plan, it is precisely because they would sabotage it for being accomplices of the regime. If the opposition that Villegas has represented all these years is still wondering if EGU will come on January 10, it must be because they have done absolutely nothing to make it happen, as for example, to begin by showing solidarity for the political prisoners product of the political persecution after the fraud of the regime in the elections of July 28, 2024.
The parties must begin to understand, unfortunately the hard way, that the people of Venezuela told them twice, in two successive years: WE DO NOT WANT YOU! And not only to Maduro, but also to his cohabitant opposition. And yet, their spokesmen like Villegas believe that the leadership of MCM will melt like a panela of ice in the streets of Maracaibo. They have not yet understood that the leadership of MCM is not a common leadership, IT IS A SOCIAL PHENOMENON, IT IS A SENTIMENT shared by 90% of Venezuelans, and it is a cry they do not hear because they stopped understanding long ago the national reality. And I say 90% because the country's diaspora was not allowed to vote.
And besides, it is a feeling to get out of both, OF MADURO AND OF HIS OPPOSITION represented in the PUD. If there is already a plan for Maduro, there must also be one to get out of his opposition. Only without both, the country will move forward. The political recomposition that will have to come in the country has to be planned from now on, as a next iteration of the successive approach applied for the definitive solution, and immediately, using the successful results of the first one after successfully achieving the swearing in of EGU as Constitutional President of Venezuela.
The results of the first iteration will guarantee a genuine representation of the country, both in the political sector as well as in the civil society, to CONVENE AN ORIGINAL NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY, with an inclusive basis for all sectors. But summoned not only with the purpose of reinstitutionalizing the country the first minute that EGU assumes power in Venezuela, but also to know with whom the Venezuelan people really want this task to be carried out. One thing is as important as the other!
The Constituent process as the next iteration, will also allow the good Venezuelans of those empty parties, not only to find themselves again democratically, knocking down from their pedestals in the process the “Maduros” they have internally, such as HRA, but rebuilding their own party institutions for the Venezuela of the future. Is it too much to ask for Venezuela as of 2025? I don't think so. We are at the doorstep of the greatest political change since 1958. Let us not spoil it by minimizing, or not taking into account, the enemies of change that crouched down never wanted it, and will be a hidden political weapon against what is coming if they are not politically eliminated with the regime. In that second iteration, the definitive solution to the complex problem posed for Venezuela in 2025 will be more than achieved.
In reality, Venezuela has lived in a constant process of successive approximations towards freedom. No tyrant will be able to stop this process that has already begun, even if he wishes to shamelessly reaffirm his electoral robbery in front of all Venezuelans. The process runs unstoppable towards its final solution. Let us hope that these words find an echo in Venezuelans of good will, willing to work hard to build this country from scratch when the process of rapprochement concludes. Thank God there are more and more of us, both inside and outside the country, willing to do so. I will pray for that future on this coming New Year's Eve, thanking all my faithful friends, readers and followers of this convulsed end of the year 2024 for their company in these reflections, and wishing you all a Happy New Year 2025! God knows that we have been accelerating that process throughout this year that is ending. God with us! Amen...
Caracas, December 30, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email:
luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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