Versión en español
Intervention at the Pio Tamayo Chair on Monday, July 15, 2024: What will happen on July 28J-24? End of the "Socialist Bolivarian Revolution"?
Once again, my permanent gratitude to the Pío Tamayo Chair and Professor Agustín Blanco Muñoz for their invitation to reflect on the events of the country, especially those that are building the contemporary history of Venezuela, such as those that will occur at the end of this month of July 2024.
In this opportunity, the questions of the Forum are very precise, especially due to the great expectation that has been created among the population for a change in the political conduction of the country, from the hands of a new leadership, after the very hard and disappointing experience represented by the interim government that was established in January 2019.
In relation to the first question, What will happen on 28J-24, this would seem to be addressed to a fortune teller, and, but in reality, it is not. Those of us who have had a technical background and have been researchers in different areas, the methodology commonly used to predict events is to study the past behavior of the variables involved in a process and estimate with a certain degree of certainty their future behavior.
And without delving into a further technical explanation in relation to those of us who have always insisted on the permanent and systematic electoral fraud committed by the CNE after changing, as of 2004, the way of counting the votes of Venezuelans, to an automated voting and counting system, I will mention one of the conclusions of a research recently published by mathematician Guillermo Salas D., in his book "The Power of Math" (1). Salas concludes, and I quote:
"The evidence based on statistical mathematics that is shown throughout this writing has been what has allowed for the poorly founded discussions that have taken place for years about the performance that the voting system, object of this case of study, had in its debut to a much more objective scope. These are the ones that tip the balance decisively in favor of the thesis of electronic and massive fraud, and allow us to assert, with a degree of certainty virtually equal to 1, that this thesis is correct. Mathematics is also what allows us to infer that the voting system object of this case study, at least in its debut, must have had hidden wireless connectivity, which allowed interaction with the voting machines from a control center in real time." End of quote (Salas D, P. 124). (Ref. Amazon in Spanish: https://www.amazon.com/-/es/Guillermo-Salas-D/dp/8412677757/).
From these conclusions it can be concluded that the regime has altered the results of the electoral processes in Venezuela to remain in power since 2004, so we can conclude that the 28J will be no different, in the intention of altering the results through the technological means at its disposal. Multiple denunciations have been made, including a very recent one by Commissioner Iván Simonovis, today in exile, where he points out how and who are involved in this technological crime (see in Spanish @Simonovis, Keep in mind these names and faces, in https://x.com/simonovis/status/1805539319886614885).
But I believe that this is not the answer that the Chair is waiting for. We already know for certain that fraud exists and is taking place before the eyes of the whole world, starting by preventing the former opposition pre-candidate, undisputed winner of the primaries, from competing in this election. It is no longer a speculation of some technicians who have denounced ad nauseam the "best electoral system in the world". It is already an indisputable fact that the regime is already perpetrating electoral fraud.
But if we have already proven that fraud has always existed, why do we insist that this time things will be different? Because if it is true that the regime is capable of declaring Nicolás Maduro Moros as the "winner" of the elections in the early morning of July 29, based on results that will perfectly match all the technical traps they have managed to perfect for 20 years, the weight of what really happens will be in the willingness of the opposition leadership to accept a fraud -as it has already done in the past- with a population that in this electoral campaign has demonstrated in the streets of the whole country, in the majority, to have lost the fear of confrontation and to have lost the right to vote, This could produce a situation of civic-electoral rebellion, as I have called it in my recent articles, with unpredictable consequences.
And as in other
opportunities in the history of Venezuela, situations like this have been
settled by the FFFAA. The military will be the ones who will ultimately decide
the course of events. And that already happened on April 11, 2002, when the
official opposition did not know how to handle that transcendental episode of
popular protagonism against a regime that had openly committed a crime. I hope
that today things will be different and that the military will support the
Venezuelan people by checking the ballot boxes, if that becomes necessary, to
verify if what the CNE says corresponds to reality.
However, I prefer
that a person who knows the military world well speaks about it. In a recent
article, retired Major General Carlos Julio Peñaloza, former Commander General
of the Army, points out and I quote: "In a similar situation today is the
Colombian Maduro, who after having stolen the 2018 elections hopes to repeat
the fraud with his usual cheating, As in that opportunity, the military
situation is tense. It is true that some mercenary officers support the regime
for economic benefits, but they are not the majority. If there is an uprising
in case of fraud in the upcoming elections, Maduro will most probably flee,
like Perez Jimenez. To spur his flight we must convince the military that their
future is with democracy and not with the Chavista kleptocracy that has
discredited and prostituted the armed organization. The best way to achieve
this is to start now, with a call for a national strike from the day of the
elections, in case fraud is detected" End of quote (see in Spanish Carlos
Julio Peñaloza, La Patilla, La historia se repite? in https://lapatilla.1eye.us/2024/07/12/carlos-julio-penaloza-la-historia-se-repite/).
My dear friend,
General Peñaloza calls it a "national strike", but I propose it as a
peaceful civic-electoral rebellion of the Venezuelan people, demanding the counting
of each and every one of the ballots cast, in all the tables of all the centers
of the country, in case the result does not correspond with what Venezuela has
seen in the streets, as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia
passed by, versus the repudiation demonstrated against Maduro and his
accomplices throughout the country. The military should be the first to
accompany that to prove it.
But, even if the
regime hardly and with great effort recognizes the victory of the opposition,
will that represent the end of the socialist Bolivarian Revolution, as is the
question of the Cátedra today? I do not think so. In fact, they are already
preparing for that.
The well-known lawyer and columnist, Omar Estacio, in a recent article points out, and I quote: "...last May 28, between the dickens and midnight, the spurious National Assembly of Venezuela, sanctioned the no less spurious partial reform of the Organic Law of the People's Power. The purpose of the latter, as we have been publishing, is to empty the Venezuelan presidency of its natural powers. Neutralized by the Venezuelan democrats, the electoral fraud, in its different facets and modalities, which will culminate next July 28, the elected president, Edmundo González, instead of taking office on January 10, 2025 as a true head of State, would be the holder of an empty shell. A post-electoral fraud, to make us understand better" End of quote (see in Spanish Omar Estacio, La Patilla, Fraude poselectoral via the communal councils, in https://lapatilla.1eye.us/2024/07/11/omar-estacio-z-fraude-poselectoral-via-los-consejos-comunales/). This strategy of "emptying" of powers the positions where they do not win, has already been applied in the Metropolitan Mayor's Office of Caracas and the strategic governorships of the country, such as that of Táchira. Now they are going for the Presidency of the Republic through another fraud, this time post-electoral.
This cancer called Bolivarian Revolution, which will surely be removed from the Executive Power in its fundamental part on July 28, will not be extinguished just by removing the tumor from Miraflores. It will require an immediate subsequent therapy treatment to eliminate possible metastasis, just as it is applied to a cancer in the human body. That therapy is our proposal to summon the people to a National Constituent Assembly, by popular initiative, hand in hand with the political leadership that will emerge victorious on July 28, using the electoral inertia of the presidential election.
Any resemblance with the Venezuelan reality of 1999 IS NOT PURE COINCIDENCE. That decision will be required at that precise moment in order to constitutionally change the political reality of the country that has been imposed on us for 25 years. That was precisely what Hugo Chávez Frías did to change the reality of Venezuela, and we must do the same.
This National Constituent Assembly will be able to "transform the State, create a new legal system and draft a new Constitution" as stated in Article 347 of the Constitution. This is no longer an option but a necessity in view of the imminent danger of perpetuating the disaster, even if we have won the 28J election. We hope that the new political leadership understands this as a pending debt to be paid to the Venezuelan people.
Thank you very much...
Caracas, July 15, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
(1) Salas
D., Guillermo, The Power of
Math, Editorial La
Esquina del Alveo, Madrid, España, ISBN: 978-84-126777-5-1
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