If politicians would listen to what the people say, they would make far fewer mistakes. But experience tells us that this is not the case. And despite the thousands of polls they do, they end up interpreting backwards -or to their interests- what the people want. We Venezuelans said countless times that Guaidó should assume his position as Constitutional President in Charge with all his powers, and without the intervention of the parties of the 2015 National Assembly, so that he could take the necessary steps to fulfill the famous trilogy, and they olympically ignoring that sentiment, put an end to one of the closest possibilities we have had to end the tragedy that overwhelms the Venezuelan people. No survey was needed to verify that in the streets, or anywhere, whoever you asked.
And as we used to say in C.A. Metro de Caracas, God is the one who drives the trains. Those who control that system know why I say that. Well, God has given this long-suffering people another opportunity to solve this problem, and we are running into the same roadblock to get out of it, the politicians who call themselves opponents and their egos and interests.
Regardless of the name and gender of the person who was elected with 93% of the votes in a primary, she is the undisputed leader of the Venezuelan opposition, NO VALID PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION EXISTS WITHOUT HER PARTICIPATION. And with all due respect to Dr. Corina Yoris Villasana, no one can fit in that position for political reasons. Anything else would be playing a calculated game to the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros, which precisely requires that substitute person to justify a mega-fraud that would be impossible to apply if the corresponding opposition candidate participates in the election.
For the regime it is perfectly possible to justify, for example, the unlawful difference of 200 thousand votes in favor of Maduro that they applied to Henrique Capriles in 2013, and apply it in the same way to Dr. Yoris Villasana. But it would be IMPOSSIBLE AND ABSENT OF ALL CREDIBILITY to apply the same to María Corina Machado (MCM). The regime would justify a victory of Maduro, that people do not believe in substitutes and abstained, or that Dr. Yoris was an unknown in politics, which is true. But a victory of Maduro for the world, no matter how big the fraud by the CNE, would be intractable and unimaginable if the candidate is MCM. And that is the problem they have, both Maduro and all the collaborationist opposition, and that so far has no solution for them.
And this is what we will be facing on July 28, if at the last minute the regime decides to "grant" the participation of Dr. Yoris Villasana instead of the one who should be there for the votes of the Venezuelan opposition on October 22, 2023. According to the CATI Venezuela Survey of April 2024, by the pollster Meganalisis, there would be a downward difference between MCM and Dr. Yoris Villasana, who according to the study would have a support of 38.5% compared to 71.9% of MCM (see in Spanish, Meganalisisis Survey Verdad Venezuela, April 2024, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1778181777808630006).
Even so, apparently the numbers still seem to favor Dr. Yoris' option, compared to the 13.2% that Maduro still has, followed by Manuel Rosales with 5.8% (see in Spanish, Meganalisisis Verdad Venezuela Survey, April 2024, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1778181792031232106). But this photograph is the mirage that the regime wants us to see, and that from now on important political "influencers" of the opposition are selling to Venezuelans.
If Dr. Yoris Villasana ends up not being accepted by the CNE, the regime would not even worry about fraud. 75.1% of Venezuelans WOULD NOT VOTE for Manuel Rosales even if MCM raises his hand, and 89.3% consider him a traitor after the March 25 disappointment at the CNE (see in Spanish, Meganalisisis Verdad Venezuela Survey, April 2024, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1778181785077358927), with the regime 7.4% ahead of Rosales right now.
On the other hand, a difference of 25.3% between Dr. Yoris Villasana and Nicolás Maduro Moros could be perfectly managed by the regime on different fronts: a) the deliberate non-participation of Venezuelan voters in exile, whose number amounts according to some analysts to 5.5 million voters (see in Spanish, Voice of America, Millions of Venezuelans abroad could remain without voting, in https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/venezolanos-en-el-extranjero-votar-elecciones-presidenciales-/7515988.html) and that in the best of cases will swell the natural abstention figure, if they are not transferred to "vote" electronically in electoral centers controlled by the regime, traditionally located in places where the opposition has never been able to enter; and b) the rest of the traps applied during the process that include the guided and threatening vote of the population in those same centers.
In the last published cut-off of the Electoral Registry for the Essequibo Referendum, the CNE reported 20,694,124 voters (see in Spanish, CNE News, in http://www.cne.gob.ve/web/sala_prensa/noticia_detallada.php?id=4224). Now, 5.5 million voters represent approximately 26.57% of that universe, which easily exceeds the indicated difference of 25.3% that Dr. Yoris Villasana would have over Maduro, which demonstrates at a glance that any substitute to Maduro from MCM can be controlled without any major problem by the fraudulent system of the CNE. What would be impossible to control would be a 58.7% difference between MCM and Maduro, according to the support of Venezuelans of 71.9%.
But this is not being talked about anywhere. Politicians and sectors linked to the Unitary Platform, and others such as the UCAB, are diverting attention to the fact that MCM should be accepted at any cost to support Manuel Rosales, or in the best case scenario, that Dr. Yoris Villasana should be registered in the CNE IN PLACE OF MCM, in both cases playing into the hands of the regime, when they should be demanding respect for the decision of the opposition people as expressed on October 22, and that MCM should be registered as it corresponds according to the agreement signed in Barbados. Both scenarios are losers for the opposition, especially that of Rosales.
In view of this situation, you may ask me, what to do then, let the regime have its way by holding an election WITHOUT MCM, or someone to represent it? That answer must be given by the MCM itself as the undisputed representative of the true opposition to this regime of miscreants. In the opinion of this writer, in the face of this abuse by the regime, MCM can do what it deems convenient, but what it should NOT continue to do is:
a) To continue accepting the failed strategies of a bunch of "opposition" politicians that DO NOT REPRESENT ANYONE SINCE OCTOBER 22nd, gathered in a platform that was swept in a primary election. Then, from now on, it should separate itself from everything that represents those people, in front of Venezuela and the world. The Venezuelan opposition voted for MCM, for nobody else, so there is no endorsement of legitimacy of origin. And I am not inventing lukewarm water, that was what Javier Milei did in Argentina, leaving until the end an agreement with the "political caste" of that country; and
b) To continue on a route created by the same regime that one pretends to defeat without believing that it is not full of traps and betrayals.
Consequently, it is high time to denounce and reject that route, and renegotiate with the support of the legitimacy we Venezuelans gave her by voting for her on October 22, and of the countries of the International Community that have supported that legitimacy, not only a new electoral schedule, but a NEW ELECTORAL SYSTEM to be applied to the presidential elections, starting with a MANUAL system of counting all the votes of Venezuelans, as it happened in the primaries.
This goes far beyond calling for abstention or "null voting", as some are already considering. It is to reset the game and put it from the beginning, with the real elected opposition leader, because the regime decided to breach the signed agreements and those who should have rejected that were the first to accept it, as a consequence of the fact that they still consider themselves as the legitimate "opposition" of Venezuela and they are not.
There are still routes that can be followed, some of which I have
commented in this corner of the net, such as the Constituent route, but they
are only suggestions that can be taken into account or not. But what should not
be done is to let oneself be carried away by the circumstances imposed by the
regime, and especially by those who from within want to see MCM's political
career destroyed in favor of their interests, knowing that with that they also
destroy the country. It would be regrettable if MCM were to fall into the same
situation Juan Guaidó fell into when the Constitution gave him the undisputed
leadership of the opposition route, and he allowed himself to be manipulated by
those who still have us in this misfortune, disregarding the lapidary phrase of
the Liberator "to call oneself a chief in order not to be one is the
height of misery". Let us hope that the corollary of all this tragedy
is not that misery…
Caracas, April 14, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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