"Blessed are those who have the courage to change because theirs will be the kingdom of freedom"
(In memory of) Carlos Alberto Montaner
November, 2016
It is difficult to navigate the opposition waters in Venezuela. There are too many mirages. Due to lack of water, we believe, repeatedly, like shipwrecked sailors who do not make it to dry land, that the ship that will finally pick us up is coming in the distance. And when it does not happen, disenchantment and depression set in, returning to the desire to end it all.
We seem to have forgotten the crowds that gathered in Chacaíto on February 18, 2014 just to watch Leopoldo López, the then main leader of the Venezuelan opposition, being taken away without us being able to do anything to prevent it. Have we learned anything from that? Now we see how the main opposition leader, María Corina Machado (MCM), faces the same attacks from the regime. And the answer is still the same, as if we have not learned anything in all these years: "We will win, the regime is scared, we will defeat them because we are the majority!".
And I have no doubt that in the long run this will be the case. In the meantime the regime acts and we react. It has never been the opposite. Some readers have complained to me, and not without some reason, that my statements are pessimistic. And of course they are, because I see that same air of triumphalism in the face of the same demolishing machinery that has us completely tabulated, and that clearly knows how we will react to any barbarity they do.
The disqualification of MCM is aimed at exacerbating the spirits of the opposition to cling to the mechanism of primaries, taking it precisely to the most convenient place for the regime. Victimizing the "savior candidacy" of the opposition (see previous note of the same name in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/savior-candidacy.html) as they have effectively done, they get her to commit herself to insist on this way with the support of everybody, and to run in October, even if it is not the candidacy of the MCM the one that will finally face him in 2024. The regime thus gains 3 long months, enough time for the whole opposition to be involved in a sterile and meaningless election, which will not show who will finally be the real contender to the regime's candidate, until the end of October.
Once the new CNE is formed -which will happen soon- the regime will be able to bring forward the elections as soon as possible, and the candidate who can truly compete will not have even a fraction of the support needed to go against them, not only because the majority will be regretting what they did to MCM and will deny him their support, but also because he will not have enough time to gather the necessary alliances to achieve a credible winning bloc against the regime.
The regime by victimizing MCM knew very well what the reaction would be. MCM would remain "triumphant until the end" as expected by the regime, and if the strategy remains the same, hardly the chosen primary candidacy will win those elections. And their G3 enemies, who are even bigger than those of the regime, will be delighted and will not lift a finger to avoid that, even if we all lose.
What should a true opposition be studying, if it really believes that the solution is an electoral confrontation with the regime? To rethink the strategy of the primaries and find a candidate IMMEDIATELY that gathers enough opposition adhesion, and that is not any of those on the primary ballot, including MCM. In other words, to call RIGHT NOW for a political agreement among all the participating opposition, including the G3, to put all the political capital of the entire opposition world into an indisputable figure that all agree upon. That is, to find a unifying figure, morally and politically, as Ramón J. Velásquez was in his opportunity, capable of assembling and negotiating among all the opposition, a three-year transition with all the political sectors, after being elected president in 2024.
At this point you may ask yourselves, what is the difference? That new figure would also be subject to political disqualification, as the MCM is now, or any other measure that would prevent him from competing electorally with the regime. The difference would be that after such an effort by the entire opposition, by exhausting all possible democratic ways to settle the crisis with the regime, it would be definitively demonstrated before the world, especially before the countries that continue to insist on this, that there is no possible electoral path in Venezuela.
I believe that establishing this difference would be the rational thing to do if the political actors really want an electoral solution that we all defend without passion for anyone. But unfortunately we are, once again, in a game of emotionalism and egos. And anyone who shows the opposite of "going forward to the end" will be labeled as "pessimist", "conformist" or "defeatist". And this is not a criticism, it is a reality. I am nothing more than a political analyst who contributes ideas in the face of what is happening, leaving aside the passions that may arise from the actions of the criminals who misrule us.
In this fight, unlike us, these criminals are risking their lives, and they will do whatever they have to do to stay. And we remain reactive in the face of what we consider an "electoral encounter" that we will win because we are the majority, putting our chests to the bullets with cardboard. MCM is the most studied character in the opposition right now, as well as the feeling of support it generates. That is why it will be very easy for criminals trained in psychological operations with the Cubans and Russians to carry out actions and predict the reactive movements of her and her followers to whatever they undertake, if it is not the Cubans and Russians themselves who are applying them.
I am writing this note as a tribute to the memory of Carlos Alberto Montaner, considered the best Latin American political analyst of our time, whose death has gone under the table because of all this scandal mounted by the regime for the political disqualification of MCM. Montaner ruled out an electoral solution to the Venezuelan crisis, even though he knew very well that there was no political space for a military intervention in Venezuela.
When the Lima Group ruled out the use of force to solve the problem of Maduro's tyranny, Montaner insisted, arguing a text by Humberto Belli, former Nicaraguan Minister of Education, in these forceful terms: "The problem is that Chavismo has constituted a dictatorship dedicated to drug trafficking and to expanding Islamist terrorism. Hence, Humberto Belli, the former Nicaraguan Minister of Education, has raised the need to put an end to the Maduro regime by means of collective arms. His arguments are impeccable: if "revolutionary internationalism" exists, and if the left applauds "the divine presence of Comandante Che Guevara", no one can oppose the existence of "democratic internationalism", especially when it would be acting in favor of Venezuelan sovereignty and at the invitation of a legitimate government presided over by Guaidó. His text ends with a salute to "The Legion of the Caribbean" created by José Figueres to fight against the tyrannies of the time. It was a magnificent initiative". (see in Spanish Carlos Alberto Montaner, What will happen now with Venezuela and Juan Guaidó? in https://www.elnuevoherald.com/opinion-es/opin-col-blogs/carlos-alberto-montaner/article227023009.html).
But Humberto Belli went even further: "Surely, voices will also be heard criticizing governments or institutions that decide to take concrete measures against those who trample on their peoples as interfering or contrary to national sovereignty. In this regard, it is necessary to remember that sovereignty does not reside in governments or states, but in the citizens, and that any regime that denies them the right to freely elect and remove their authorities cannot claim in its favor a principle that it tramples on in its own house. Respect is deserved only by governments that respect their peoples; those that abide by the will of the people and protect their rights" (see in Spanish Humberto Belli Pereira, Es hora de la solidaridad democrática, in http://www.elblogdemontaner.com/es-hora-de-la-solidaridad-democratica/). Nothing could be truer than that.
If we are to force a situation that will lead us to that concrete scenario through elections openly stolen by the Maduro regime in the presence of the International Community, it will be clear that all political actors must previously change their inflexible positions by creating a unique electoral position against the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros, with the maximum support of all opposition sectors, taking an unusual step towards freedom. If so, the now immortal words of Carlos Alberto Montaner will come true: "Blessed are those who have the courage to change because theirs will be the kingdom of freedom". In that case, if they find the courage, the kingdom will not only belong to them, but to all of us. May it be so...
Caracas, July 5, 2023, one more year of Venezuela's Declaration of Independence, but without independence...
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