Is it possible that the teachers taking to the streets, as a consequence of their struggle for a fair salary, will be the spark that will set the Venezuelan prairie on fire? That is the desire that we all harbor in accompanying the teachers in their just demands, which are not of now but of always. And although the prairie is dry, it continues to grow every day.
However, the regime has not been left behind. Threats from their thugs on motorcycles, who now use social networks to send intimidating messages, are the new way they use when they see themselves diminished in money and followers, and who now must group together in closed video shots to distort a reality that now looks more than evident: they no longer have anyone to do their paid dirty work in the streets, because even those same thugs are victims of the misfortune caused by the regime to Venezuelans.
And so it is, "It has been a while since fear changed sidewalks. Fear is on the sidewalk of the oppressors...", as Prof. Elsa Castillo told the media (see in Spanish We are no longer afraid!, in https://twitter.com/EVTVMiami/status/1615101180849397771). But that, although necessary, is still not enough.
The massive protests, such as those of 11A-2002 and the rest of those that have filled the streets of our country in the 20 years since then, have not moved the regime, which reminds us of that old saying that "the people do not knock down the government", but it does frighten the regime....
And these massive protests frightened them so much that they tried to buy the teachers with an "Economic War" bonus -already devaluated- and the delayed payment of the vacation bonuses owed to the university professors, as a kind of gracious concession to get them to leave the streets, for something that is rightfully theirs. But, will the regime solve the conflict with these crumbs? Everything indicates that it will not be able to.
And the bottom line of the Venezuelan situation will not find a way out without money. No matter how much PDVSA, the Mining Arch and the pockets of Venezuelans have been devastated with outrageous taxes, the regime is now incapable of sustaining the Public Treasury. And that which once was their mainstay throughout the country, now turns out to be their worst nightmare.
It turns out that they can only pay the military leaders who support them. There are no longer the millions and the weapons for the threatening bikers all over the country, and there are only a few left who make do with ham loaves (see in Spanish Sebastiana Barraez's tweet of 16-01-2023, in https://twitter.com/SebastianaSin/status/1615021466432507908). Hence, it is useless for the National Guard to continue "training" the regime's armed gangs to repress demonstrations as a result of the massive desertion of the troops, who do not even have enough to feed them in the barracks (see in Spanish Gustavo Azocar's tweet of 01-16-2023, in https://twitter.com/GustavoAzocarA/status/1614945682774786048). The window of time that is opening up for the opposition to continue to press for a way out of this situation is therefore important.
And what is that window? The time the regime is trying to get to improve its finances with Chevron's oil and the agreements with the fake opposition in Mexico. In my opinion, I doubt that they will release the 3 billion of humanitarian aid agreed by the pseudo negotiators if the regime insists on not returning to the table: ""As long as Maduro and his followers continue to repress the Venezuelan people and divert resources to corrupt practices, we will continue to pressure the regime with sanctions", said this Monday January 16 to the Spanish agency EFE "a State Department spokesman"" (see in Spanish US to Maduro: Our policy of sanctions on Venezuela remains intact, in https://contrapunto.com/global/latinoamerica/estados-unidos-a-maduro-nuestra-politica-de-sanciones-a-venezuela-permanece-intacta/).
They have already begun to block PDVSA's financial leaks in search of survival oxygen, trying to leave out Tareck El Aissami's intermediaries: "The measure shows a total lack of trust, which is understandable given that more than 10 billion dollars in shipments have been granted to briefcase companies, but it is not justifiable because PDVSA continues to be the generator of dollars for Venezuela and today the country needs more than ever the inflow of financial resources" (see in Spanish El Nacional, PDVSA paralyzed contracts, agreements and any management that commits financial resources by order of its new president, in https://bitlysdowssl-aws.com/economia/pdvsa-paralizo-contratos-acuerdos-y-toda-gestion-que-comprometa-recursos-financieros-por-orden-de-su-nuevo-presidente/).
However, this measure will apparently not work either because nobody trusts them internationally, since El Aissami and his cronies continue to operate successfully, as reported by El Nacional: "OFAC said in the publication of the sanctions that El Aissami had developed a network of intermediaries to personally benefit from the sale of more than 30 million barrels of crude oil".
As will be seen, they themselves are the cause of their own misfortune and that of the rest of Venezuelans, in a dynamic that will necessarily conclude with their irremediable fall, without knowing where the next state will go, whether to something much worse than what we already have, or towards a 1958-style democratic course, as we all hope.
No government is stable without money. The people's demands and annoyances do not end until a government stabilizes its economy and adjusts it to the demands of the people. And those demands will grow as more sectors begin to make themselves present in the protests, together with the teachers, forming what I called in 2014 an Inevitable Fall (see in Spanish Inevitable Fall, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2014/03/caida-inevitable.html). In that year, my mistake was that the reasons for the streets were mostly political and only counted on the active and constant participation of only one part of the population, without taking into account that fear was in favor of the regime. Now it is totally the opposite.
The Venezuela of the Maduro regime is entering late into the turbulence due to economic demands, precisely because of the late change of sidewalks due to fear. Now fear is no longer important because it is the same to die of hunger at home than in the street protesting because you cannot buy food. And these turbulences are the worst because misery, which at this moment is generalized, has no political color and devastates the stability of any government. What is missing now is not the dryness of the prairie, but the spark that ignites it...
Caracas, January 18, 2023
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
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