The instant approval of the three requests submitted by the illegitimate CNE to initiate the procedure for the activation of a recall referendum against the usurper Nicolás Maduro Moros, clearly indicates to Venezuelans the regime's interest in carrying out this process. (see in Spanish CNE approved the beginning of the procedure for the eventual activation of the Recall Referendum, in http://www.cne.gob.ve/web/sala_prensa/noticia_detallada.php?id=4116).
And I say instantaneous because in this opportunity the CNE did not require the collection of 1% of the signatures of the electoral roll that had to be contrasted in their veracity before proceeding with the schedule of the National Electoral Board for the collection of the constitutionally required 20% of the Electoral Registry. And it is not that it was very difficult to collect that 1% (in 2016, 1,102,236 signatures were collected in two days, obviously much more than the 197,978 required for that time) but that they strangely unlocked the process to immediately give the authorization.
Now, the metrics that the CNE is now handling are those by which they "elected" Nicolás Maduro Moros in the illegal presidential election of May 2018. In fact there are no others because there have been no legitimate presidential elections! Starting from there already that Recall Referendum is born with muddy legs. Not only because it would not be possible to recall in good logic someone who exercises power unconstitutionally -and furthermore with the rules of the same constitution that they have blatantly violated- but it cannot be sustained that the internationally recognized formal official opposition endorses such nonsense without losing it in that attempt, automatically transferring to it the legitimacy that the regime is desperately seeking. Hence its great interest in its occurrence.
Anyone could say that it is a calculated risk of the official opposition. And that even accepting such risk, it is an all or nothing bet with the regime, something like betting everything on Rosalinda. However, in the famous copla of Ernesto Luis Rodriguez, the game was fair and by betting it all, "the dice on the beautiful night" returned the “corotos” to the gambler who bet on his woman. But in the event that the official opposition "wins" this game that the regime has "granted", it will still keep it all.
Basically, according to Article 72 of the Constitution, the main purpose of a Recall Referendum, in case the constitutional requirements are met, is to provoke the absolute default of the person to be recalled. And if this turns out to be (which in the present case it is not because Maduro is not the President of the Republic, but a usurper) the President of the Republic, then the rules of the absolute lack of the President of the Republic established in Article 233 of the Constitution apply.
Let us remember here why Juan Guaidó is President in Charge. There was the absolute lack of the President Elect on January 10, 2019, before taking office, because there was no valid presidential election, therefore new elections had to be called within a period of 30 days. Now, Article 233 is clear in stating: "If the absolute absence of the President of the Republic occurs during the first four years of the constitutional period, a new universal, direct and secret election shall be held within the following thirty consecutive days. While the new President is elected and takes office, the Executive Vice President shall be in charge of the Presidency of the Republic". This is what the promoters of this recall are essentially looking for.
But, what happens if the Referendum takes place after the 4th year of the presidential term, in other words, during the last two years? Again this is answered in Article 233: "If the absolute absence occurs during the last two years of the constitutional period, the Executive Vice President or the Executive Vice President shall assume the Presidency of the Republic until the completion of said period".
Maduro will complete 4 years of usurpation on May 24, 2022, since his swearing-in before the illegitimate National Constituent Assembly (see the chain of illegitimacy of the subject). If we still do not know the schedule of the CNE of the regime, I ask you: When do you think the date for this recall referendum will be, in the event -very possible, by the way, if the regime wishes to have a recall - that it is approved because 20% of the current electoral roll is raised? Before or after May 24, 2022? Good question, isn't it? I will let each one of you imagine the answer.
The only way for a call for presidential elections to take place under this suicidal scheme of the official opposition, is that the date of the recall published by the CNE is BEFORE May 24, 2022, in the event that 20% of the Electoral Registry is gathered, and also that one more vote is obtained than what Maduro got in that fraudulent election of 2018: 6. 248,864 votes, and "...provided that a number of voters equal or higher than 25% of the registered voters have participated in the Referendum" (Article 72 of the Constitution).
I will tell you what I think may happen without having a crystal ball. The schedule of the recall will be deployed for most of 2022, to entertain the opponents for the rest of the year. Clearly, the date of the Referendum, if the requirements are met, will be after May 24, 2022 (with the valid excuse of the organization of the CNE tables and so on), leaving only two options. Either we nail Maduro if we lose it, or Delcy Rodriguez, if we win it, both until 2025. In both cases the house wins and laughs.
The regime will manage in one case or another to claim the legitimacy gained through suffrage before the International Community, and at the same time get out of the Government in Charge of Guaidó (with the imprisoned character, of course). All this without counting on a renewed, shiny and updated "Tascón List" that will serve him for the next onslaught of authoritarian persecution. And all of this with the little help of the official opposition and the insignificant promoters of that trap, who will also have "won" because they will always say that "later we will beat them" in the next electoral carnival of 2024. And meanwhile, Venezuelans will continue dying and fleeing from this hell.
If Venezuelans have learned nothing so far about who they are dealing with in both cases, the regime and its opposition, it is not worth discussing it further. The people of the world who have learned from coups have progressed. And Venezuela has taken too many coups to continue behind the toxic decisions of a worn out and criminal political leadership, whose bad decisions and their consequences always end up being paid for by the Venezuelan people. Those peoples who continue without learning will be subjected forever, or until they get rid of those leaderships and their mud-footed solutions...
Caracas, January 19, 2022
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