How was it that a referendum that, in the beginning, was sold to the population as "non-binding" turns out that now, after a gross manipulation of the results, is the main justification being used by the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros to create a new Essequibo State, an Organic Law that regulates it and a whole state of international commotion to recover by force the territory under claim?
We can make many conjectures as to why this referendum ended up being binding for the regime, unlike the 2017 and 2020 Popular Consultations, which even the official opposition itself ignored and pointed out as "non-binding" despite the fact that each one had a real participation -not imaginary as the one of December 3- of 7.5 and 6.4 million Venezuelans respectively.
Since the approval of the current Constitution in force in 1999, the people may directly exercise their sovereignty (Article 5) through the mechanisms provided therein (Article 70). The fact is that the regime has always decided in the last instance in which cases a consultation to the people must be complied with or not. Well, although the people did not accompany them on December 3, as evidenced by the total absence of voters in the voting centers, they decided to use votes that Venezuelans DID NOT GIVE THEM to bypass us in order to generate a conflict with Guyana.
Everyone concluded, including this modest blogger of the networks, that this move was a desperate way out to create a state of emergency that would allow the regime to suspend indefinitely the elections scheduled for 2024. But after opening a little more the frame of the picture, and considering in the analysis all the international forces at play, it seems that this explanation turns out to be very superficial and that it hides a sea of much more depth than what is seen at first sight, although the electoral one may be one of the first consequences.
Creating a scenario of belligerence over the Essequibo, where they know that they would not be accompanied by almost all of their historical allies, starting with Cuba, Caricom and now Lula Da Silva's Brazil, all this without counting China, which has impressive investments in Guyana, must have a more solid explanation than simply avoiding the elections.
The war business has been one of the greatest of all time. From it came fortunes that are still visible and decisive in today's world since World War II. Without the need to go to war, the mere fact of creating the possibility of one, generates economic movement of defense, weapons, transportation, communications, construction and projects. And if to this is added the willingness of potential partners such as Iran and Russia, well disposed to collaborate with the regime in exchange for strengthening its presence in the region, in the face of its eternal war against the values of the West, especially the US, the table is well served.
How would Venezuelans benefit from this? Nothing. But a new source of long-term financing would be opened to the regime for that "possible war", which would give them oxygen to remain in power for as long as they wish. They would establish bases of those countries in our territory, whose mere presence would give them the security to remain in power in the face of a possible armed intervention.
And the 2024 elections? Thank you very much. They could, as they are already thinking, extend Maduro's presidential term for as many years as they please in their illegitimate National Assembly, or simply modify the Constitution to decide that the elections in Venezuela will be of second degree, as in Cuba, where the president is elected by the Assembly. And the people? You saw it on December 3: they do not need it. They call for an election, and no matter if nobody goes, they already have with the CNE the factory of the millions of votes they require.
In order to face this new continuist strategy of the regime, it is not enough to have a real candidate willing to fight with them in an election, and to look for those who will take care of the votes in the country, because as you will see, the issue is not being decided by measuring themselves electorally with the regime. They already know that they will lose resoundingly in that way, and that is why they decided not to be counted.
But they are not only taking steps to avoid being measured, but to sustain themselves after that, which makes it a deadly strategy for us. They will care little about sanctions and taking whoever they can get their hands on, violating the Human Rights of Venezuelans. They know that they must achieve a new geopolitical scenario where they are the immovable center of political stability in the region. With that achieved, nobody will remove them from power because those who will make sure that this does not happen will be the powers in struggle worldwide.
But all this has to be set up quickly, before the US elections. International balances are delicate and they have, as of now, less than a year of a substantial change in the US to achieve it. But like them, the real opposition will have to move accordingly.
In view of this reality, the opposition strategy of waiting for the regime to measure itself electorally has ceased to work, because that is what they agreed at a negotiation table in Barbados. In fact, a proof of this is that the regime has already broken the agreements by once again attacking the opposition, persecuting and disappearing important collaborators of candidate María Corina Machado.
From the legitimately elected opposition of the country, it is time to start giving more weight to the leadership role of an opposition in resistance, as a result of the October 22 election, than to that of a presidential candidacy. The latter will come when it is possible to guarantee that the regime finally enters the electoral track. This would be the opposition dilemma of the Essequibo. After all, it was for this leadership role that the candidate ran for the primaries in the first place. It is time to put a face to the regime and run away from the Venezuelan people?
Caracas, December 14, 2023
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos,
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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