As it happened in one of the longest running telenovelas in Venezuelan television, El Derecho de Nacer, based on the radio soap opera written by Cuban Félix B. Caignet, "Ya Don Rafael habló". You have to be old enough to have felt the anxiety that this meant for all of Venezuela, being glued to the TV set watching RCTV, waiting for Don Rafael to reveal that Albertico Limonta (Raul Amundaray) and Isabel Cristina del Junco (Conchita Obach) could not be together because they were family.
And just like in the soap opera, the CNE has already spoken, thus clearing the anxiety of Venezuelans, making it clear with that decision that María Corina Machado (MCM) cannot be a candidate because she is "disqualified", and now we are all in suspense waiting to see what the most voted candidate in the primaries will do, seeing that the regime clearly and definitively confirms with that announcement, its kick to the negotiating table of Barbados.
Indeed, "The Board of Directors of the National Electoral Council (CNE) decided this Tuesday (March 5), unanimously, the date of the schedule to be carried out in the coming days, establishing July 28 as the day for the presidential election, as announced by the president of the governing body, Dr. Elvis Amoroso, accompanied by the vice-president Carlos Quintero and the rectors Rosalba Gil, Aimé Nogal and the rector Juan Carlos Delpino..." (see in Spanish CNE News, in http://www.cne.gob.ve/web/sala_prensa/noticia_detallada.php?id=4247).
And certainly nothing else could be expected after the signing of the "NATIONAL AGREEMENT ON GENERAL PRINCIPLES, CALENDAR AND EXTENSION OF ELECTORAL GUARANTEES FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2024", with the sigüí opposition that the regime sought, with the aim of scrapping the electoral agreement signed with the official opposition in Barbados (see in Spanish complete agreement in http://www.correodelorinoco.gob.ve/acuerdo-nacional-sobre-principios-generales-calendario-y-ampliacion-de-garantias-electorales-eleccion-presidencial-2024/).
It can be said that it is really from that signature that the regime decided not to continue with the negotiations in Barbados and to disregard what was agreed with the Unitary Platform, which up to that moment was for them the representative of the opposition in Venezuela, signed in the presence of the Kingdom of Norway. But the formality of the Electoral Power was necessary for the regime to turn the Barbados page.
If we look at those who signed the document, in the name of a supposed political opposition in Venezuela (see in Spanish the signatories, in https://www.asambleanacional.gob.ve/noticias/poder-legislativo-y-sectores-del-pais-firman-acuerdo-nacional-sobre-garantias-y-calendario-de-presidenciales-2024), all added together, do not even represent 2%, as indicated by the most recent CATI Verdad Venezuela January 2024 survey, conducted by the most serious pollster in the country, Meganalisis, where in the closed simple answer question "For which of these candidates would you vote in the presidential elections of 2024?", Venezuelans clearly answered that 71.8% would vote for MCM, 7.9% for Maduro and a total of 1.9% for the rest.
In other words, the sum of what was achieved by the most representative of those people, Benjamin Rauseo (0.9%) Antonio Ecarri (0.4%) Leocenis Garcia (0.2%), Javier Bertucci (0.1%), and others (0.3%) and who are the "opponents" that the regime wants to count on, do not reach all together 2%. By previously deciding that these, and others like them, will be their opponents, with Maduro having less than 8%, they will have the election assured without the need of fraud (see in Spanish CATI Verdad Venezuela, January 2024, public results in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1754526244916379682).
Now, what will happen with the remaining 71.8% of MCM plus an undetermined percentage that has been added to that candidacy? That decision would be in the hands of those who organized the primaries, that is, of the Unitary Platform, because MCM is the candidate chosen by the people FOR the Unitary Platform, and whoever wanted to register outside of it as MCM, registered there. And although she got the votes in the primaries, either by herself or as a result of a majority that did not want to know anything about the other candidates or parties of that Unitary Platform, for the reasons we all know, MCM could do little or nothing if that Unitary Platform decides to "bend so as not to split" and register at the last minute another candidate agreed upon by its parties for the new electoral charade of the regime.
But the owner of the popular favor will continue to be MCM, and candidate or not candidate is the only person certified so far by the votes, to lead the Venezuelan opposition and with a clear mandate to get out of the regime. What she says the people will do. If she calls for abstention, people will abstain. If she calls for civil resistance, people will follow her. But what she cannot do is to endorse that leadership or representation given at the ballot box to someone else. That is not transferable, and even less to accompany another fraud to the citizenship, following the game to some criminals who decided to change the game in their favor. That would immediately disqualify her as a leader. So she will have to be very careful with that political capital achieved after long years of citizen struggle.
In our case, we have suggested that in the exercise of that leadership, MCM consider the possibility of calling for the Original Constituent Power, vindicating the Human Right to political participation established in the Constitution, as a response in accordance with the outrage of the regime by preventing the exercise of political rights to that 71, 8% of Venezuelans, without taking into account the millions of voters not accurately counted who are abroad, to express themselves democratically in favor of the candidate of their preference, which closes the possibility of a peaceful solution to the Venezuelan political problem. We have already commented on this in this modest web forum a few days ago, after some statements made by Dr. Blanca Rosa Mármol de León, Magistrate Emeritus of the TSJ to the media (see Constituent Plan B, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/constituent-plan-b.html).
Proceeding with this alternative implies raising the struggle that means a global -national and international- gathering of wills to convene the constituent assembly without the participation of the constituted powers, all of which are currently co-opted by the regime, and then, based on that, to propose to Venezuelans and the world an election of constituents that would decide the destiny of the country.
Some will say that everything would also end in an election, and the answer is yes. But so was the election of MCM with Maduro. If we start from the valid theory of the 600K, taking care of the votes of each constituent in the whole country would be immensely easier because the scope would be local and not national, where it is more feasible to do fraud in the general totalization. And those constituents would be mostly related to MCM and the real opposition.
On the other hand, it will be very difficult for the regime to deny the constituent essence that gave origin to Chavismo before 1999, which is nothing more than the people deciding, and the people have already withdrawn their support. But this time it would decide with some Bases and conditions approved by the people in consultation, with the participation of all sectors and under the principle of proportional representation that Chávez denied us in the 1999 Constituent Assembly. And even if the regime has decided to leave MCM for the elections called for July, MCM could lead an overwhelming movement in favor of summoning the people for the rescue of the country. She could either lead that transition or save herself for later elections.
Summoning the Original Power is a solution that solves the famous mantra. The Constituents, as legitimate representatives of the Nation, can decide on a transitional government while the constitutional order is reestablished and a new Constitution is approved to reinstitutionalize the country. In this state of affairs, the forces in that Original Constituent Assembly, controlled by an opposition majority, would establish a transitional government headed by MCM, or any personality of indisputable probity until the approval of a new Constitution and the call for free elections. It is clear that the regime will try to prevent this call for elections, but it will be an uphill struggle because it is constitutional and another peaceful and electoral way would be the continuation of this struggle.
From now on, the political conditions are in place to summon us because the Venezuelan people have already decided to get out of this regime, regardless of its political color, as has already been demonstrated. Nobody wants them, not even their own base. The best of all is that a Constituent Assembly by the hand of the people has no date, and its process can begin as early as tomorrow. It only remains for the MCM to start it and leave the decision of what happens to the Venezuelan people.
Caracas, March 6, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario