If there is no such draft of “political peace” proposed by President Gustavo Petro, whose existence was reported by El País América of Spain, through a note signed by Juan Diego Quesada and Florantonia Singer last May 27, perhaps they should be working on one, because at this point there is no Venezuelan who believes that the regime will win the elections and even less that it will hand over power to the opposition (see in Spanish, El País, Petro already has in his possession the draft of “political peace” in Venezuela after the presidential elections, in https://elpais.com/america/2024-05-27/petro-ya-tiene-en-su-poder-el-borrador-de-paz-politica-en-venezuela-tras-las-elecciones-presidenciales.html). So much so, that even the governments of Colombia, Brazil and Chile fear to receive a large part of the consequences if the regime insists on remaining in power through a fraud by the CNE in the electoral results.
What would be left then? That both the opposition and the regime sit down prior to the elections and “negotiate” a solution that guarantees, not only what every democratic election should guarantee, that the winner does not persecute the loser, but also that the true electoral results are peacefully recognized. And I stress the word TRUE because that is what the Maduro regime is already trying to distort, starting by “disqualifying” and persecuting the true representative of the opposition, María Corina Machado (MCM) and her campaign command, but also by a blatant perverse and manipulated engineering of the electoral centers, and preventing the presence of observers from the European Union. This is nothing more than the evidence of what they intend to forge on July 28.
But that would not be strange at all. It is what we have seen since 2004 but on an exponential scale never known before, due to the desperation they feel when seeing that the opposition today has 6.24 times more voting intentions than the regime, in a projected participation of 76.74% and rising (61.1% Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia versus 9.8% Nicolas Maduro Moros) (see in Spanish, CATI Venezuela May 2024 Survey, Which of these candidates would you vote for in the presidential elections of 2024, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1795296356036452411/photo/2).
The presidents of Colombia, Brazil and Chile are right then, as the article in El Pais America indicates, when Petro tells Maduro that if “he wanted their support, that of Lula da Silva and Gabriel Boric, he should give a sign of democratic normality”. And so far so good. From the international perspective, “opposition and government” should sit down and evaluate the situation with a clear view to the outcome of the 28J. The presidents are anticipating the obvious outcome of the election and the expected response they know the regime will have. The Latin American presidents are clearly telling Maduro that they will not condone outright fraud.
But -always the blessed but- we wonder about the detail in Venezuela, and which opposition should sit down to negotiate there and what should be negotiated? Will the MUD-PU “opposition” sit down, the one that overwhelmingly lost the primaries by 93% to MCM, due to the votes of the obstinate opponents to negotiate behind the backs of Venezuelans? Or who sits down there with the regime is a legitimate representation of the opposition headed by MCM? That would have to be solved by us, without anyone's intervention. And this would be just for start...
The regime and the MUD-PU opposition have the bad habit of considering themselves as representing the Venezuelan people on both sides without having the backing of the popular will. Both the regime and the MUD-PU ceased to represent anyone in Venezuela, and perhaps this should be recognized by the governments promoting this “political peace” agreement.
Clearly, the existence of Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU) in the Venezuelan political electoral panorama as a presidential candidate is precisely due to the fact that the regime has trampled the rights of political participation of MCM and of all Venezuelans who voted for her, imposing an unprecedented situation, never seen before in the world, of a person acting as a “substitute” for another whose political rights were violated, in a presidential candidacy.
But even so, and due to their lamentable record, the owners of the unity card, the MUD-PU, would be more than willing to negotiate a right that would only correspond to the winner of the opposition primaries, if Maduro accepts this draft of “political peace” proposed by the Colombian president.
But in order to guarantee that there are no unpleasant surprises, as the MUD-PU has accustomed us to, any agreement made between the opposition and the regime to ensure the results of July 28 must be made in front of Venezuelans, in a 100% transparent manner, and with legitimate representatives at the head of such negotiation, and not those who negotiated in Barbados, because the future of Venezuela is at stake here. And this is not an invention of this writer: 81.4% of Venezuelans believe that the upcoming elections are “The last opportunity to produce changes in the country” (see in Spanish, Meganalisisis, CATI Venezuela May 2024, in https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1795296382053654851/photo/1).
I am convinced that an agreement between the opposition and the regime is necessary prior to July 28, as proposed by Presidents Petro, Lula Da Silva and Boric, in light of the foreseeable results of the election, in order to preserve peace among Venezuelans, but not just any agreement, nor at any price. It must be an agreement adjusted to the Venezuelan opposition reality, whose legitimacy has been ignored by the regime by leaving MCM out of the elections with the complacency of the official opposition.
If this reality continues to be ignored, by both parties, the regime and the MUD-PU acting as official opposition, only because they have the regime's franchise to act as such, and even more so when we see the entire national country taking to the streets in the wake of what should have been the candidate, I see it very difficult for a political peace agreement to prosper, and even less so if it is carried out without the leadership of the true opposition representation headed by MCM and facing the Venezuelan people.
If in fact the presidents of these nations wish for political peace in Venezuela, an agreement with the regime in the present circumstances must involve turning the presidency of EGU into a political transition that, on the one hand, recognizes the genuine desire for change of the population, clearly demonstrated in the streets by the presence of MCM, and, on the other hand, guarantees that in a short period of time there will be equitable political conditions of peaceful coexistence for all. In other words, political peace does not come alone. It comes with a transition or it does not come....
Caracas, May 30, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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