When I saw the logical inference of the political opposition to the results of the Barinas election last Sunday, I was reminded of the old tale of the spider that goes deaf. Paradoxically coming from the State of the "Arañero de Sabaneta" it is quite pathetic: "...a scientist who has trained a spider and addresses it from the other end of the room. "Spider, come," he says to it. And the spider approaches him. Then the researcher pushes the spider away again, pulls off one of its legs and repeats the operation. The spider obeys again and again until the scientist pulls off the last leg and waits for results. As the animal remains motionless on the ground, the professor writes in his notebook: "When you pull off all the legs of a spider, it becomes deaf". And that is what they concluded: "As the opposition won with votes to the regime in Barinas, then it is possible to win any election against their electoral system, including a recall".
After all these years there is still the belief that the regime "may lose elections", without fully assimilating that the regime does not lose elections, it lets it win elections, which are two very different things. And that is what is not fully understood. What happened in Barinas on January 9, 2022 was the same thing that happened on December 6, 2015. Upon seeing the results, the regime decided what was more convenient for its interests (and the interests of its partners of the opposition itself) and whether it was preferable to let the opposition candidate win this time. I wish to make it very clear here that it is not the intention of this writer to minimize under any circumstances the civic effort of the people of Barinas to express their rejection in the electoral form to those who have destroyed the quality of life of their State. The issue here is to elucidate the true intentions of those who have counted the votes, not only in Barinas but in Venezuela as a whole, since 2004.
The results of the election in Barinas did not compromise in any way the stability of the regime at national level, but it could be the beginning of an escalation of civil insurrection that would have to be repressed in the very State where the Chavez family has been doing its business for more than 20 years. But beyond that, handing over the governorship of Barinas to the "opposition" would be much more profitable than having the State of the "Galactic Commander" on a war footing, in spite of all the food and household goods that were profusely given away, including the long awaited gas bottles that had disappeared for years from the towns of the interior of Venezuela.
And why more profitable? Because as of Sunday, January 9, overnight, the CNE's electoral system turned out to be, after all the international discredit of the regional elections of November 21, 2021, the "most transparent in the world", as Tibisay Lucena, that of the "irreversible" results, declared every time she could. But the message was not only for the outside, but also for the inside of the country. Surprisingly, I see in the social networks an overflowing joy because "if it was possible in Barinas, it is possible in Venezuela". It is enough to start crying on the sidewalk...
The question we Venezuelans should ask ourselves is not why the opposition won, but why the regime decided to lose, when having all the controls to give the result it wanted, it decided to hand over the governorship of Barinas.
In controlled electoral systems such as the one we have in Venezuela, the results of any election never coincide with the will of the people. In these systems this is the normal behavior, the will of the people is distorted by a system controlled from outside and from within. For nobody was a secret the dozens of buses traveling from other States to Barinas, with PSUV militants to vote in those elections, even officials of the regime whose proven residence was in another State were discovered voting in Barinas without any problem of appearing before the cameras, in proof of openly illegal migrations made by the CNE, with all the resources of the regime in favor of its candidate.
So, if those in control of the country and of all the public powers, including especially the electoral power, allow the popular will to be expressed without problems and without distorting the results, we must pay close attention to why they are doing so. And it is here where I have two hypotheses that I wish to share with you.
The internal fight for control of the PSUV
Who is in control of the CNE? Clearly the regime. But which part of the regime? Nicolás Maduro Moros. Maduro, as owner of the CNE, by allowing the popular will to be expressed without distortions, where the popular mass, not only of Barinas but of Venezuela as a whole, expresses its total repudiation to the figure of the one who destroyed the country, kills at the same time three birds with one stone: he recomposes his figure as a "democrat" before the International Community, washes the face of the national and international image of the corrupt electoral system he has and gives a final blow to his internal adversary for the control of the PSUV and of the regime as a whole.
This fight to the death between Cabello and Maduro is explained in detail by journalist Sebastiana Barraez last December to César Miguel Rondón (see in Spanish Guerra a lo interno del chavismo entre Nicolás Maduro y Diosdado Cabello, in https://youtu.be/cqUiJeAVw7A). In this interview, the journalist clearly summarizes the political situation in Barinas within the regime:
"The real objective of Nicolás Maduro has long been to eliminate the figure of Hugo Chávez, and one of his main objectives is to have to eliminate the Chávez family and the power they have in Barinas and that is why he sends Iris Varela for that State, who was lead in the wing for the campaign of Argenis Chávez"... "Why does Nicolás Maduro change at the last minute, does he not let Barinas remain in the hands of Superlano and opposition groups? It is because there is a figure that intercedes there and is of certain weight with Cuba, such as Adán Chávez, and for the Chávez, in spite of the internal problems they have, they know that losing that space in Barinas has nothing to do with it being the cradle of Hugo Chávez, but because it is the only space of power of business control that the Chávez still have in Venezuela"... "Diosdado does need the candidate of Chavismo to win even if he is not his candidate, even if Arreaza is not his candidate but Maduro's. And he needs it because he needs to keep the candidate of Chavismo to win even if he is not his candidate, even if Arreaza is not his candidate but Maduro's. And he needs it because he needs to keep the Chávez's candidate. And he needs it because he needs to maintain the image of Chávez as the survival of Chavismo, because if Chavismo does not exist, if the Chávez family disappears, and if it is nothing more than a reference for history, the only thing that will remain is Madurismo and Diosdado Cabello has less possibilities of surviving only in Madurismo...".
That maneuver of letting the opposition win in Barinas brought much more benefits to Maduro than to the opposition, who is now using it as a pivot to advance its electoral interests with the regime at the expense of the naivety of many Venezuelans, including the call for a Recall Referendum that will seal with a flourish the strategy for the regime to definitively get the international recognition it lost after the illegitimate presidential elections of 2018.
Open the way for Maduro's legitimization
The logical inference made by the official opposition indicating that if we go to elections we will win because in Barinas "if we could", was not long in coming throughout Venezuela through its mass media and social networks. All Venezuela now believes that spiders become deaf when their legs are removed.
This strategy of the regime immediately began to yield results when we see that the Government in Charge is considering the possibility of a recall referendum of Maduro for the same reason: "The president of the AN of 2015, Juan #Guaidó (@jguaido), assured that he proposes to activate the revocatory through a comprehensive agreement between the sectors of the country. "To exercise the right that today is sequestered in Venezuela," he sentenced" (see in Spanish TVVNoticias, in https://t.co/Jl02qKd8SY).
This statement by the President-in-Charge is of such an extreme gravity that I do not believe that Venezuelans have clearly noticed it. The only person who CANNOT raise the possibility of a recall of Maduro is precisely the one who owes his existence to the usurpation of Nicolás Maduro Moros.
In fact, the very reason for the existence of an Assigned Presidency and the figure of Juan Guaidó Márquez, is the usurpation of power by Nicolás Maduro Moros. Beyond that, the support to our Constitution, shown by the countries that have given him their international recognition is precisely because Nicolás Maduro Moros IS A USURPATOR. Then, what can be the reason for a pronouncement by Juan Guaidó backing the recall of someone who in no way can use any constitutional remedy that requires from the outset the condition of holding a legitimately obtained office?
If Guaidó contradictorily asks for a recall of Nicolás Maduro Moros AS GOVERNMENT IN CHARGE he must then, in the first place, disassociate himself from his condition of President in Charge, accept the legitimacy of Maduro's presidency, that his CNE and TSJ are legitimate, and that the Popular Consultation we made in December 2020, which ordered him and the rest of Venezuelans to do everything necessary for Maduro to cease the usurpation of power, was a lumpia we all Venezuelans smoked. All this without counting that the National Assembly, which Guaidó himself presides, declared on January 15, 2019 the official usurpation of Nicolás Maduro Moros. (see in Spanish Agreement on the declaration of usurpation of the Presidency of the Republic by Nicolás Maduro Moros and the reestablishment of the Constitution, in https://www.asambleanacionalvenezuela.org/actos/detalle/acuerdo-sobre-la-declaratoria-de-usurpacionde-la-presidencia-de-la-republica-por-parte-de-nicolas-maduro-moros-y-el-restablecimiento-de-la-vigenciade-la-constitucion-331). It could be said that with that public statement Juan Guaidó revoked himself.
That is the real victory of the regime in Barinas! And if Venezuelans still do not realize that, let's all go to the recall slaughterhouse, but with full knowledge of the cause. If by some chance of fate (and that I do not believe in coincidences but in causalities) the political opposition comes up with the idea of going to a recall of Maduro with the Government in Charge and Juan Guaidó at the helm, with the backing of the International Community, and especially the United States, they will be falling into the posthumous web of the "Arañero de Sabaneta", because this will finally give the regime the so longed international legitimacy it is truly seeking with this laboratory move with the help of the official opposition, because there the regime will not "lose" as in Barinas. And the losers, as always, will be the Venezuelans, because from then on there will be a regime for a while. So, I ask you again, who won in Barinas? Think well before continuing to celebrate…
Caracas, January 12, 2022
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