What greater proof does the International Community need that the Venezuelan Electoral Power is just another branch of the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros, than the massive resignation of the so-called pro-government Rectors, by orders of the tyranny? What more could Venezuelans shout to the world that in this country the possibility of solving the political problem we have by means of votes is denied, if it is the tyranny that counts them through an Electoral Power under its control?
But even so, this future seems inexorable, if things continue as they are going with a militarized narco-tyranny in power. And a sign of that is the threat that looms over the two who did not sign that "resignation" en masse, which, by the way, they should not have done if they wished to keep their "opposition" facade before the Venezuelan people.
Indeed, "Deputy" Francisco Ameliach, in charge of submitting the resignation of the CNE Rectors before the illegitimate National Assembly of the regime, threatened the non-signatories with an investigation. And we all know how the investigations of the tyranny conclude, so, for sure, they will also end up resigning for any real or supposed dirty laundry they may have in store for them. The regime requires absolute control of the Electoral Power in this new phase (see in Spanish Against Roberto Picón and Enrique Márquez? Ameliach asked the NA to review all CNE rectors after the resignation of Chavismo, in https://maduradas.com/roberto-picon-enrique-marquez-ameliach-pidio-la-an-2015-revisar-todos-los-rectores-del-cne-tras-renuncia-del-chavismo-video/).
There are two ways to analyze this new scenario posed by the regime by ordering the change of the CNE Rectors: 1) To concentrate entirely on preserving power in the presidential elections, eliminating any possibility of a breakdown of the Electoral Power due to pressures from the International Community, placing unconditional figures of Madurismo narco-chavismo, as was Tibisay Lucena, regardless of what happens with the opposition Primaries; and b) An open maneuver to force the official opposition to make the decision to exclude the CNE from its Primaries, which would give rise to an action by the TSJ of the tyranny to intervene in them.
In both cases, it seems obvious that there is fear in the ranks of the high castro chavismo madurismo, about the electoral advance of the opposition not aligned to the regime, which would force it to withdraw in a closed strategy to prevent that opposition from having any chance in the elections of 2024.
But I have always distrusted the obvious. The obvious by its very nature is superficial. And those indicators that say that the regime has already lost due to the unstoppable pre-candidacy of the hard opposition, that we already have an option that sweeps the whole country, and that the only thing missing to pass over Maduro like a railroad in 2024 and win the elections is for the opponents to be counted in a primary without the CNE. But if we think so, so does the regime. It is unbearable how obvious it makes people careless, and especially those who have the responsibility to lead, forgetting in that simplicity that we are facing an enemy that plays without rules, that sets the trap for the dirty stab.
The first question to be asked is why the regime decided to take the CNE out of the game and leave out those who from their pre-candidacies begged for their participation in the primaries, such as Rosales and Capriles, obvious puppet pre-candidates of the "opposition". The regime is aware of the generalized contempt of the opposition population towards those pre-candidates. No one was going to swallow that they "won" a primary by opposition votes. Now, without the CNE in the middle, nobody from inside or outside the country can hold the regime responsible for the candidate that the "opposition" decides to elect or designate, by whatever method they decide to use.
Then, without the CNE in the equation, the collaborationist opposition, which called for these primaries, must now solve alone the problem of a potable candidacy for the tyranny. And if they do not manage to solve it, then the regime will have to do it by its own methods. What will never be possible from the perspective of a narco-criminal regime, will be to accept an opposition candidacy capable of toppling them from their position of power, even if they make the decisions they have to make that will bring them even closer to Nicaragua or Cuba, no matter what they say in the world. The survival of the criminals who control power is at stake. Not to mention that they are more than capable of repeating what political cliques less desperate than them did to stay in power, in Mexico, with Luis Donaldo Colosio, or in Colombia with Luis Carlos Galan, who also looked unbeatable.
The first approach to try to solve the problem within the "opposition" itself, has just been given by Rafael Arraiz Lucca, resigning from the National Primary Commission, stating in his Twitter account that: "without the CNE, and the polling stations, it is impossible to do the primary election in an extended way" suggesting that the CNP "could opt for another method to choose the presidential candidate of this sector of the opposition" (see in Spanish La Patilla, Arraiz Lucca abandons the Primary Commission and suggests using "another method" to choose the opposition candidate, in https://gitx.awsccs2.com/2023/06/16/arraiz-lucca-abandona-la-comision-de-primaria-y-sugiere-usar-otro-metodo-para-elegir-candidato-opositor/).
Arraiz Lucca's resignation is nothing more than an indicator that the last word has not been said regarding how the opposition candidate will be chosen, because not only he believes that the opposition should make this selection by a different way, and that is precisely what the regime wants.
However, despite this opinion, the CNP communicated its decision to hold a "self-managed primary", which is the name used to count the opposition votes on its own (see CNP Communiqué, 16-06-2023, in https://twitter.com/cnprimariave/status/1669876641768546305/photo/1). The regime will of course do its own to hinder that process as expected, but the decision to initiate that effort does not imply that at the last minute the CNP will decide that Arraiz Lucca was right. Who knows? With the political instability of the country, anything can happen.
Could it be that the obvious that everyone in the opposition wants -elections counted by the opponents themselves- will result in a candidacy capable of overthrowing the regime? The majority always opts for the obvious. But as I have already noted, I distrust the obvious, and even more so when the regime is an enabler of it. As "Yogy" Berra used to say, "the ball is round and comes in square boxes, and the game is not over until it is over". And the primary process is not over to say that we already have a candidate to present to the regime and the world, capable of blowing it up, because the devil is still loose and bad enough to surprise us.
And all this without taking into account that opposition primaries in a tyranny are in themselves a contradiction. Paraphrasing Milan Kundera when he entitled a novel "The Unbearable Lightness of Being" (1), I believe in the unbearable of the obvious because of its superficiality. In this case I ask myself, as the author does in his novel: "What should we choose: weight or lightness? I prefer to opt for the weight that sticks me to the earth, even if it hurts, because it saves me from suffering another new disappointment...
Caracas, June 18, 2023
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
(1) La insoportable levedad del ser, Milán Kundera,
Colección Andanzas, Tuskets Editores, 1985.
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