Should we be worried about the near future of the political situation of the country? Of course we should be concerned! What if I were to tell you that with or without that concern, Venezuela's destiny cannot be other than to be free? Venezuela's libertarian deed is a historical heritage that, whether we want it or not, we Venezuelans have been carrying on our shoulders for more than 200 years. It is part of our way of being and acting. Have you not noticed that in all our history, no matter how much any ruler has wanted to subjugate Venezuelans, sooner or later he has come out with a plank in his head? That is the characteristic of “dry leather” that Antonio Guzmán Blanco attributed to us more than 100 years ago.
Then, the question here is not whether or not we will correct the monumental mistake in our history that Hugo Chávez made in 1998, but at what time and how. In that context, we may be certain of the outcome. What causes us concern is the uncertainty of not knowing when and how it will be. In the near history of the XX century, with Juan Vicente Gómez, it took 27 years, ending with the death of the dictator, not without many attempts, including external invasions such as the Falke expedition. In the case of Marcos Perez Jimenez it took 10 years, less time but with the help of the Armed Forces.
The situation that we have been living for more than 25 years will also come to an end with the consequent resurgence of the country, as it happened before. This is not a wish, it is a certainty. However, we must reflect a little on how much and when we have advanced in that objective, and the reasons for the different failures. I am a convinced that the regime would not have lasted as long as it has lasted without the help of the bought and cohabitant opposition. In other words, we have not had a real opposition -or we have not had any opposition at all- leading to the real triumph of the opposing people. It would be unnecessary to outline in this note the chain of mistakes committed, by action or omission, by those who called themselves opponents in all these years, because I have already done it in some way in this blog in at least 14 of those 25 years.
On this occasion, unlike the previous opportunities, we have an opposition with the vocation required against the regime, led by María Corina Machado (MCM), who has proved without a doubt to be at the level of the problem we have. One could disagree with her past history, but what is indisputable is that she has taken this conflict to a level where we can say with confidence, that we have the opportunity, never before closer, to solve the political problem of the country. And in the denied case of losing that opportunity, Venezuelans have already become fully aware of who the traitors have been and of the tenor required of those who must lead this struggle.
Today, progress has been made, as never before, since the primary process of October 22, 2023, being that for the first time the regime is cornered and on the defensive, taking everyone ahead, trampling even more the Human Rights of those who oppose it. This is the best indicator of the opposition advance.
An indisputable indicator is the declaration of 31 governments of countries that, on the sidelines of the 79th UN General Assembly, met to discuss the serious and urgent situation in Venezuela, in support of respect for democratic principles and the exercise of human rights in our country, and in which they urged to initiate a dialogue with the governments of the countries of the region “to begin constructive and inclusive discussions on a transition with guarantees for both sides to resolve the country’s political impasse and restore democratic institutions peacefully in accordance with Venezuelan law, as well as the will of the people as expressed through their votes on July 28. We stand with the millions of Venezuelans who continue to risk their lives and well-being to demand a more democratic, prosperous, and secure future for themselves and their country” (See U.S. Department of State, “Joint Statement on the Situation in Venezuela,” September 26, 2024, at https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-situation-in-venezuela/).
Where is the uncertainty? We are certain that this defeated opposition, desirous of recovering a trust that Venezuelans have taken away from it, for being corrupt and cohabitant, will influence Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU), and consequently MCM, to fail in the attempt to recover the country, dynamiting the inauguration of EGU in January 2025, and discrediting the well earned opposition leadership of MCM at the ballot box. One can be certain of this uncertainty.
The official opposition has already started an internal struggle in Venezuela (PJ and Capriles case) to see who looks better against the regime for a regional election in 2025, and to continue surviving at the expense of our misfortunes with the regime at the head. While 31 governments are telling Maduro to change his attitude and respect the will of the Venezuelans of July 28, the official opposition is beginning to align itself with the regime for regional elections, being the first beneficiary of the failure of EGU and MCM. It is impossible to find a greater contradiction, which proves what many of us have always maintained: that they were NEVER the opposition. Will Venezuelans continue to play this electoral game of the regime that only feeds misfortune and continuity?
The regime, in its desperate search for “normality” post July 28, will do the impossible to stop the international advance of the siege that step by step has been built and that will continue to close every day. Every day there is a new success in the direction of international recognition of EGU as President Elect. Practically, the most important international news of these days have been the pronouncements of the presidents at the 79th UN Assembly in favor of the respect of the popular Sovereignty and Human Rights in Venezuela, starting with that of the President of the United States himself, Joe Biden.
The worst mistake we can make is to accelerate something that is developing successfully. The world already knows that the regime is not viable and with each passing day we are gaining more support, such as the recent statement by the Colombian Senate urging President Petro to recognize EGU as President Elect (see in Spanish EGU and MCM thanked the Colombian Senate for its support, at https://www.costadelsolfm.org/2024/09/25/edmundo-gonzalez-y-maria-corina-machado-le-agradecieron-al-senado-de-colombia-su-apoyo/).
But if that is not enough, we add yesterday's statement by the U.S. Secretary of State, with Argentina's Foreign Minister Diana Mondino, at the Palace Hotel in New York on September 26th, stating: “We come here united in the commitment to defend the human rights of the Venezuelan people, and committed to bring about an inclusive, Venezuelan-led effort to restore the nation’s democratic future. That means insisting that Maduro engage in a direct dialogue with Venezuela’s united democratic opposition that leads to a peaceful return to democracy. The United States and its partners stand fully ready to support this process” (see Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Argentine Foreign Minister Diana Mondino at a Ministerial Meeting on Addressing the Urgent Situation in Venezuela, in https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-argentine-foreign-minister-diana-mondino-at-a-ministerial-meeting-on-addressing-the-urgent-situation-in-venezuela/).
A violent solution does not suit anyone now, except for those who live off them and whip up people's hatreds to sell weapons or their knowledge of killing. The last time Venezuela got into a full spiral of violence we ended up with the country, and a third of the population died. It could be argued against that we managed to get out of Spanish rule and liberate a territory that later became 5 nations, at a cost that some still consider too high, including the destruction of Bolivar's unitary dream. Of those 5 nations, only Venezuela was devastated in terms of people and productive infrastructure, and we did not get out from under until we found oil.
But even though the War of Independence was in self-defense - we had no alternative - according to the Spanish historian Fernando Olivié, quoted by Enrique Tejera París, in his work Venezuela y el Dios de los borrachos (1), it should have been avoided: “Instead of sending diplomats and statesmen to America - which there were not many either - Fernando VII and his government sent Morillo with 10,000 soldiers, but even the election of Morillo was a mistake”. According to Tejera París, “With such a monarch there was no possible arrangement or negotiation. Our war of independence was inevitable, for self-defense”.
But now we do have alternatives, because the world and the century are different. We have an elected President who has the votes of Venezuelans, and a cause that is sustainable and increasingly shared by the International Community. And if in the end there is no agreement or negotiation possible with those who are now kidnapping the country, negotiation would still be viable with the countries that support them in power. And those countries will eventually understand that it is better for them to work for the future in their interests with a legitimate government in Venezuela than with a mafia that the world increasingly rejects outright.
As Gustavo Herrera, distinguished Venezuelan, Chancellor, Minister of Education and Minister of Development in 1943, quoted by Tejera París in the above mentioned work, used to say: “Don't worry so much, because Venezuela is protected by the God of the drunkards”. I am not only sure of that, but of our resilient and liberating condition, incapable of giving in, and that hopefully it will never manifest itself with violence, because the last time that happened, the shock wave of that confrontation not only annihilated a third of our population but the totality of those who wanted to subdue us…
Caracas, September 27, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
(1) Tejera
París, Enrique, Venezuela y el Dios de los borrachos, Editorial Libros
Marcados, Primera Edición, Marzo 2007, ISBN 980-6933-16-8
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