By Luis Manuel Aguana
There is nothing more desperate than trying to round off an idea you are expressing in a moment and suddenly there is an interruption. It happens to me when I'm writing, and in the middle of an idea, suddenly my granddaughter comes to ask me for a paper to draw, and I lose the flow of thought. Or even worse, when in the middle of an interview, the internet goes down and you're left with the word in your mouth, especially for me, who is not particularly one for the spoken word, but rather the written word.
In a recent interview to which I was kindly invited by Mingo and Erika, in the program “Arrímate al Mingo”, in MingoTeVe on YouTube, these interruptions happened, not once but several times, due to the horrible internet that I have (and that in general there is in the country), and which I have no hope of being able to change at this time. This left the approach I wanted to make cut short, without allowing me a general closure. In spite of all the efforts of my hosts, the interruptions in themselves generate a diversion of ideas. The consequence of this is that when the message is truncated, you do not express the general idea of what you wanted to express, even though some parts of it may have been successfully transmitted (see in Spanish Tenemos que hacer política ¡pase lo que pase! / ARRÍMATE AL MINGO / Martes 02 de septiembre de 2025 in YouTube, in https://www.youtube.com/live/p6S1UGJUe2E).
I will not repeat everything I said there (I invite you to watch the interview in the link above), but I would like to finish with this note to express the ideas that I was trying to expose there, and that for reasons of time and technical interruptions I could not conclude, recognizing that in a program with limited time it is difficult enough.
There is a misconception, artificially created in the country, due to multiple reasons (either by the relentless narratives of the factors in conflict, the political interests of the leadership involved, the fear of losing political influence) that the US will end our tragedy by “extracting” those mentioned in the “Wanted” posters that circulate internationally. I have already explained a great part of this mistake in my last three notes, especially the most recent one, and the reason for the invitation to the program “Arrímate al Mingo” (see Making politics in Venezuela, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/making-politics-in-venezuela.html).
Contrary to what the artificially created generalized matrix of opinion spreads, there is no such thing as Venezuela starting a “transition”, among other reasons because Venezuela has not yet entered that phase. And why do I think that is a phase? A phase of what? Let's see.
It has been said countless number of times that “you have to get out of Maduro and his regime” to start a transition process. And that is true. However, in spite of that, people still confuse “gymnastics with magnesia”, as my grandparents used to say. Here are the phases I am referring to:
Phase DISPLACEMENT
This is the phase where we are stuck. The opposition narrative has convinced Venezuelans that the only way out of the regime is by force. This conviction by the political actors to the population has us all waiting for Trump's marines, or the bombs from the ships, or the “extraction” command, because that would put an end to the suffering of the Venezuelan people.
That has cancelled all discussion, debate, exchange of ideas among the affected factors, to address the consequences of that supposed action, everything. In other words, of doing politics in the country. In fact, all the political capital of the opposition is invested in that action, which DOES NOT DEPEND ON THEM, and that, if it does not materialize, that capital will end up being auctioned at the price of a skinny hen in the political market, with the consequent political ruin of those who promoted that route. Both the regime and the opposition are increasingly aggressively marketing their narratives to the highest bidder while waiting for a decision from the US.
The opposition factors, by proposing a solution such as the above, have the obligation in return to respond to the US, the country from which they are requesting that route that we could call “controlled violence”, with what could be called “a political plan”. That is, fundamentally, to respond to what would happen when they do their part, which guarantees that they, the US, will not be the ones to pick up the broken glass that this action will bring as a consequence. That is the plan that James Story, former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela, called for in his interview with Gabriela Perozo of VPItv (see it in my previous post referenced above).
In this phase, which I have called “Displacement”, if violence is chosen as the fundamental factor as it has been sold to us, after “extracting” the most wanted, the military has a fundamental role to play. The opposition has shown to have scraped that matter since in 2019 they abandoned hundreds of troops who deserted from the Venezuelan Armed Forces in support of Juan Guaidó's interim (see in Spanish La Tercera, Las historias de los militares que desertaron a favor de Guaidó, in https://www.latercera.com/mundo/noticia/las-historias-los-militares-desertaron-favor-guaido/583844/).
Hardly, without guarantees, no uniformed person will ever again believe in any opposition political leader. NONE. And as far as we know, things have not changed. On the contrary, they are still being asked like a broken record (pardon the sixties expression), as in 2019, to immolate themselves in favor of a political change, without telling them how that change will be in relation to them. That is a key question that must be answered before crossing this very important phase for political change in Venezuela.
The displacement of the existing regime in Venezuela CANNOT BE CARRIED OUT without a perfectly defined military command. Read it well: DEFINED. From the highest commander down, with name, surname and military rank. The military do not obey politicians, but rather higher-ranking military officers, and not just any military officer, but those who they recognize as their superiors and who have earned their respect in the Armed Forces. And that is precisely the very definition of who they are: “the three fundamental pillars on which the organization, administration, operability and unity of command of the Armed Forces rest... are DISCIPLINE, OBEDIENCE AND SUBORDINATION” (see in Spanish Jacobo Yépez Daza, Réquiem por un General civilista, en http://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2015/12/jacobo-yepez-daza-requiem-por-un.html and Doce Ejes y un Destino: 10) Institucionalización de las Fuerzas Armadas, en https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2013/10/doce-ejes-y-un-destino-10.html).
It is not up to me to suggest to the opposition how to do that, among other reasons, because that is a responsibility that belongs to the political leadership, as a fundamental piece that an opposition that has not yet shown signs of understanding this phase must count on. The only thing I can say is that this phase has been conducted extraordinarily well in the past, by politicians such as Rómulo Betancourt, who lived up to the political moment they were going through, understanding and fully respecting the role of the Venezuelan people of the military institution for the exercise of power in Venezuela.
Now, if it happens, as it is foreseeable, that it is not possible to get out of this phase because the wrong route was chosen, it will be necessary to enter into a POLITICAL discussion, that is, TO DO POLITICS in Venezuela, to find among all of us the best way to get through it successfully, with any help we can get from abroad, which does not necessarily translate into military force.
And here I introduce the peaceful solution proposed by the Alianza Nacional Constituyente Originaria, ANCO, to call for an Original National Constituent Assembly, whose terms are negotiated by 4 parties, between the Opposition, the regime, Civil Society and the International Community (USA at the head).
This call would be the result of political agreements (again, making politics) among all those involved, where electoral transparency is guaranteed for the election of Constituents, through an Ad-Hoc Electoral Tribunal, controlled by these 4 factors (you can read more about it in Spanish at ANCO Proclama: Hacia una negociación Constituyente- 02-05-2025, en https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2025/05/proclama-anco-hacia-una-negociacion.html and a note of mine entitled, Constituent Negotiacion, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/constituent-negotiation.html).
The 4 parties agree that once the Constituent Assembly has met, it will decide on a Transitional Government, which will be in charge in less than a year of drafting a new Pact between governors and governed, that is, drafting a new Constitution, to then call elections according to this new Pact, after the new Constitution has been approved in a Referendum.
Phase: TRANSITION
The difficulty of this phase will depend on the route chosen in the previous phase. If the displacement was violent (in any of its forms), the transition will be violent, so it becomes more important to have a clear military defense of the new power structure to come. This would be covered in the previous phase. However, I will not waste time exploring what that hypothesis would be because I do not believe in a violent solution in the displacement phase. I dare to state with the utmost seriousness that no opposition politician in Venezuela is prepared for the immediate demise of those who ungovern us. And that is precisely because there IS NO plan so far that addresses all the demons that would be unleashed if such an eventuality were to happen.
The transition must be understood as the product of a national agreement among all political factors involved in the change. Nobody will cooperate with a new government resulting from decisions where there was no participation, therefore, it would not be sustained for long, and a repetition on a larger scale of the opposition failure of April 11, 2002 would occur, where the action of the people and the military achieved the displacement of the regime, but it only lasted for hours because nobody in the political sector was coordinated for the next step in the succession of power. Even today, after 23 years, it seems that this lesson has not been learned.
If a National Constituent Assembly is held in the displacement phase, the transitional government would have an absolutely constitutional and political floor to be able to govern and make transcendental decisions in the economic, social and political spheres. The opposite option would require the force of arms, in the midst of a political destabilization promoted by those who were displaced from power. We would enter into a spiral of political violence that would join that of Colombia, due to its links with the drug trafficking business.
Likewise, the composition of such transitional government would be born from the agreements reached in the first phase, as well as from the results of the Constituent election. At this level, the political will and love for Venezuela must be appreciated in the choice of such government, which undoubtedly must be composed of the best in their field of activity, in order to face the challenges of a country in ruins.
Phase: RE-FOUNDATION
We have called Refoundation the phase where the discussion of a new paradigm for our country is developed, where there is an open debate of the legitimate representatives of the Venezuelan people, in a National Constituent Assembly, of the institutional reforms that must be carried out for the new democratic Venezuela of the future, where we can all be sure that this tragedy will not be repeated.
In the Alianza Nacional Constituyente Originaria, ANCO, we have proposed a Project for institutional change, based on a formal approach to the political-territorial reformulation of the country, which includes a model of federal autonomy of the States. I am not saying here that this is the project to be applied, but rather that different projects should be contrasted in order to find a consensus formula on which the representatives of the people agree. Our Project is called The Great Change, a proposal for the Refoundation of Venezuela (you can download the document at, https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/p/documentos-fundamentales.html).
The Great Change IS NOT A GOVERNMENT PROGRAM. It is a proposal for structural change of the State and reallocation of responsibilities among the Public Powers. It is not debatable, but in a National Constituent Assembly, for the purpose of rewriting our current Constitutional text in order to Refound the Nation. It also responds to the anguish of the Venezuelan Catholic Church to REFOUND the Nation, and whose thesis was endorsed by ANCO on the occasion of the message related to the Bicentennial of the Battle of Carabobo of the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference on June 23, 2021. From that moment on, our project is aimed at the REFOUNDATION of Venezuela (see in Spanish ANCO expresa su apoyo al Mensaje de Refundar a la Nación de la CEV, in https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2021/07/anco-expresa-su-apoyo-al-mensaje-de.html).
Note here that the last phase is not to reach “free elections”, as stated in the trilogy of the interim government. It is to change the structures of the State, and within this, to generate the necessary conditions in the country for true free and transparent elections, guaranteeing peace and political stability to be able to resume the lost democratic course of Venezuela.
Conclusion
As it has been noted in this approach, we have not even begun with the first of the three phases necessary to resume the path of the Constitutional reestablishment of Venezuela. In fact, in my opinion, the first phase has begun badly, without guaranteeing all the necessary elements to prevent the social tragedy of the country from worsening and including the political violence never seen before in Venezuela, the endemic evil of our Colombian brothers.
We are open to discuss other peaceful options for the Venezuelan political crisis. We do not own the truth. That is what politics is all about. But if the belief, already taken for granted, is that violent conflict between Venezuelans is the solution to the crisis, or that it comes from Trump's boats or any other measure that includes foreign military, let's not talk politics.
People who truly believe in that solution, let them step forward, seek the necessary resources and start an armed confrontation. I will not be the one to argue with that. At least they will present a Venezuelan solution, which may be worthy of respect, although I consider it wrong, because after it, the peaceful political settlement would necessarily have to continue, but after who knows what number of deaths. Thus, at least they will not expect another country to put its blood to solve a problem that is definitely ours…
Caracas, September 3, 2025
Blog: TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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