Ian Bremmer, one of the world's most prestigious global political analysts, recently entitled an article as follows: “Maduro won't go”, concluding it pragmatically with this paragraph:
“To date, the Trump get-tough approach and the Biden engagement strategy have both failed, because the US is no better able to dislodge Maduro than they were to sweep away Cuba’s Fidel Castro. Maduro, like Castro, has friends in Beijing and Moscow ready to provide diplomatic cover and just enough cash to render US leverage useless. Until there is a revolt from within Maduro’s domestic alliance of backers, clients, and enablers, the strongman will remain strong” (see Gzero, Ian Bremmer, Maduro won’t go, 09-04-2024 in https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/maduro-wont-go).
No Latin American tyranny has ever had as much foreign support as the tyranny of Nicolás Maduro Moros has had before, so it becomes impossible to analyze the permanence or not in power of the Maduro regime without first reviewing that extended perspective, which biases in a decisive way the decisions and options that the opposition could have to find an adequate solution to face the coup d'état to the popular sovereignty perpetrated on July 28.
Based on that, the opposition should read carefully the last sentence: “Until there is a revolt from within Maduro’s domestic alliance of backers, clients, and enablers, the strongman will remain strong”. But, how does everything mentioned by Bremmer come about if the strategy demonstrated has greater weight in the local perspective of the problem, acting accordingly in only one dimension? Because in this approach there are indeed two dimensions, the local and the global.
As the “domestic alliance of backers” we refer to those who from within - the local dimension - support and sustain the regime because they are interested in the criminal type of government that prevails in the country: drug traffickers, Colombian guerrillas, those responsible for the illicit exploitation of resources - mineral and otherwise - and in general all the corruption of the regime, especially in the Armed Forces.
From the outside -the global dimension- there would be “clients, and enablers”, who for other reasons, mainly geopolitical, it is vital that the regime does not fall, although each one of them has different reasons: Russia, China, Iran and Cuba directly, and others like Turkey indirectly.
If we pay attention to the answers that the opposition has given so far “so that Maduro falls” and hands over power to the one who won the majority of the votes on June 28, none of them respond to combat any of these perspectives, if we take into account that they would be the ones truly responsible for the permanence of the regime in power. It is possible that they respond to maintain a climate of conflict and social destabilization unfavorable to the regime, but they will never go in the direction of solving the core of the problem, which is its permanence in power.
The scale proposed by analyst Ian Bremmer only manages to visualize the issue from a global perspective, without going down to the micro-politics of the local level. We Venezuelans must do this, but we must understand that without seeing the whole picture from above, it is impossible to know where we are and the interrelationships of elements that, seen locally, seem to be disconnected. And because we do not see what is happening at a higher scale, we apply solutions that will hardly have the expected effect because they are not connected at a higher level. And that has consequences because we end up wasting valuable time applying solutions that would only have an effect if the world did not function on a global scale and in a systemic way.
The world has understood this for some time now and understands that, for example, the problems of Human Rights, the environment, massive migrations such as the Venezuelan one and the fight against transnational crimes such as drug trafficking, cannot have only a local response, because there is an interconnected and interdependent world that must be activated to be able to give an effective response to the problem.
From the above, it follows that the solution to the complex problem that Nicolás Maduro Moros represents for Venezuelans, for the Latin American region and for the world in general, requires a global and local response simultaneously, and that in our specific case everything points to the fact that global action is the priority. And why? Not only because our internal problem surpassed our territorial borders, but also because there is a new “cold war” that is trying to impose a multipolar world with countries such as those mentioned above, which dispute the US, for different reasons, the economic, military and political control of the world. And we find ourselves in the middle of this new war, as the main Latin American beachhead of these countries, achieved by the grace of a regime that surrendered Venezuela to this struggle in exchange for power and money.
That is why Ian Bremmer says that Maduro will not go away. And we Venezuelans are still being told that by using the same strategies applied to the Latin American dictatorships of the early and mid 20th century, including armed invasions and military coups d'état due to betrayals to the regime in power, in the style of the Venezuelan 40s and 50s, we will be able to get rid of this completely unprecedented cancer, without touching the real cause of the problem and without provoking a conflict on a planetary scale, like the one that occurred in Cuba in the 1960s, where the US left the Cuban people at the mercy of a bloodthirsty tyrant, without touching him, in order to protect its national security against the USSR, in a complex political negotiation.
Although times have changed, the concepts of power and money have not. And there is more at stake now than before in having control of a country like Venezuela. None of the participants in this complex and global game is interested in turning Venezuela into a theater of war, but Maduro and his group are just chips that can be removed in exchange for advantageous positions by the real players with planetary power. That is where this complex game will have to be played if we want to start solving this crisis. And if we do not want to be dealt like the powers did after World War II in Europe, we should be at that level and in the corresponding place, not in Venezuela, playing hide and seek with a protected regime...
Caracas, September 6, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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