Who has really been responsible for the unsuccessful attempts to get out of the authoritarian regime started by Hugo Chávez Frías in 1999? The regime itself? The Cubans, the Chinese, the Russians and the Iranians? The United States and the International Community in general? Or the Venezuelan opposition?
Some of you might answer that it has been a combination of all of them. Others will give some weight to the regime and the military, who have successfully used the Cuban intelligence systems (G2), or the other international partners of the regime (China, Russia, Iran). But it is definitely impossible to ignore the fundamental weight of the perception that the different US governments and the rest of the countries of the International Community that revolve in the democratic orbit have had in all these years, to generate an appropriate response that could undermine the regime that governs Venezuela. And in this, the opposition to the regime has played a fundamental role. A very bad opposition has brought as a consequence a very bad foreign response -especially that of the US- to the outrages committed by the criminals in this country.
Hence, Venezuelans have seized on this perception as a lifeline to bet that a change in the U.S. administration can make a difference in Venezuela. But that unfortunately is not enough. Although Donald Trump had every intention in 2019 to volatilize the Venezuelan regime, a lousy opposition managed to prevent him from doing so, revealing to all Venezuelans that we ourselves have been responsible for our misfortunes, and we will be responsible for getting out of them.
Today, with Donald Trump's triumph in the race for the presidency of the United States, it is logical to assume that Venezuelans have the expectation of a radical change in U.S. foreign policy in relation to the serious situation in Venezuela. As an example, this expectation is reflected in the international opinion of a Spanish media on November 6, after Trump's victory:
“Venezuelan migration in the United States and a part of
anti-Madurism believe that the Republican can be decisive for changes in that
country. They cling to his most controversial statement, in June 2023: “When I
left, Venezuela was about to collapse. We would have taken it over, we would
have kept all that oil”. The Miraflores Palace will find in Trump and his
threats a greater possibility of internal hardening” (see in Spanish Perplexity, fear
and celebrations in Latin America due to Trump's victory, in https://www.elperiodico.com/es/internacional/20241106/perplejidad-temor-festejos-america-latina-victoria-donald-trump-elecciones-eeuu-2024-111432456).
Although this statement by Trump is incomplete in that article and was decontextualized, it does reflect the support of the now President-Elect of the United States for the Venezuelan cause to regain freedom and democracy, as I commented on that occasion in June 2023 when discussing that episode (see Trump, oil and Venezuela, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/trump-oil-and-venezuela.html).
Unfortunately, the Venezuelan opposition has been one of the main obstacles to solving the country's very serious political problem, and what I insist on again today in 2024: In April 2019, at the height of his popularity, Juan Guaidó and the 2015 National Assembly rejected the possibility of a military intervention in Venezuela (see in Spanish La intervención militar está descartada en Venezuela, en https://www.clarin.com/mundo/juan-guaido-intervencion-militar-descartada-venezuela_0_ldSsWxwpG.html). … It was of no use that the first world support to that Interim Government, held with pins, was precisely that of the United States, and through that country, that of the rest of the more than 60 countries of the International Community. That “socialism” that got into the bones of most Venezuelan “opponents”, and especially that of the young politicians of the new generation aged with carbide, is the fundamental reason why Maduro is still in Miraflores... What did the clumsiness of the interim government and its puppeteers of the National Assembly of 2015 achieve? Screw the regime, turning it into an oil negotiator in front of the current US government (Biden), and richer at the expense of the oil of all Venezuelans. Venezuelans have paid dearly for the clumsiness of this incompetent pseudo “opposition” leadership that still insists on representing us illegitimately.
Trump returns to be President of the USA as of January 2025. The problem has never been the US despite the mediocrity of its intermediaries (Juan Gonzalez and other associates of the Biden Administration). It has been the toxic way in which the traditional Venezuelan opposition has approached the problem and its presentation to those who could actually do something for Venezuela at the time. That window closed in 2020 but by a miracle for Venezuelans it reopened again on November 5. Whether we know how to take advantage of it will depend on us.
Why do I say so? Because things have also changed in Venezuela as of October 22, 2023. There is now ANOTHER opposition political leadership, undisputed representative of the Venezuelans' sentiment to solve the problem and expel those who illegitimately occupy the government of Venezuela, who will be able and should understand with President Trump and his administration in this new window of freedom, even though the first opportunity was lost during Guaidó's interim and the National Assembly of 2015.
But the regime also plays and Maduro has been quick to publicly congratulate Trump, expressing that he wants a “new beginning”: “In the first administration we did not do well. This is a new beginning so that we can bet on winning, winning and doing well for the U.S. and Venezuela” (see in Spanish Maduro congratulates Trump and hopes for a ‘new beginning’ in their relations, in https://www.libertaddigital.com/internacional/latinoamerica/2024-11-07/maduro-felicita-a-trump-y-espera-un-nuevo-comienzo-en-sus-relaciones-7183928/).
Let's see how “winning, winning” would be a relationship with a regime that struck a blow to the will of the people, and that has proclaimed itself as “winner” without presenting reliable evidence of having triumphed in the elections of July 28, 2024, as the Venezuelan opposition has done internationally. That is where Maduro should start that “second stage” he mentions in his speech if he wants the recognition of the Trump administration.
This is the scenario that will take place before January 10, 2025. A new opposition awaiting a second opportunity with a new Trump Administration, but with the great difference that this time there is no longer an “Interim President”, but an elected Constitutional President, elected by the will of the people, with the evidence of his victory at the Venezuelan polls in his hands, and widely recognized by the International Community before Trump himself arrives to the White House. Could there be a greater alignment of planets?
In other words, we arrive at this date with the errand done and that Donald Trump had to carry out with Guaidó in January 2019, and incidentally ride his back to the very Congress of the U.S. Of that size was Donald Trump's commitment to get out of the problem! And with all that, our opposition of the time took it upon themselves to throw into the dustbin of history an opportunity that no one expected to have again. If this new opportunity is not a shot in the dark and a miracle for a new opposition to achieve that this time the aspirations for change of the Venezuelans do come true, let's all lower Venezuela's sanctuary, and the last one to leave should turn off the remaining light, because if they do not hurry up I doubt that God in his infinite patience will give us a third chance.
Caracas, November 9, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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