It is said that a negative situation reaches an extreme limit called "perfect storm" when the combination of the factors that produce it occur in a spontaneous way that no one can foresee, causing destruction of magnitudes impossible to measure. This term was first coined when a combination of events generated the most powerful storm of the 20th century on the east coast of the United States, causing a storm to turn into an unstoppable storm that caused deaths, thousands of homes destroyed, beaches disappeared, docks destroyed, and airports and highways closed. This was even the plot of the movie entitled "The Perfect Storm" starring George Clooney, about the odyssey of the crew members of the Andrea Gail ship that was destroyed when they found themselves in the middle of something completely unpredictable for them (see in Spanish The Perfect Storm, the movie based on true events, in https://www.elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20061220/tormenta-perfecta-pelicula-baso-hechos-5410363).
It could be said that factors similar to those of a perfect storm are taking shape in Venezuela with Russia's invasion of Ukraine; and that Venezuelans, in the same way as the crew of the Andrea Gail ship -completely oblivious to that reality- will end up being the victims of the destruction that will follow.
The war unleashed by Russia in Ukraine has generated endless comments in the world press. It is impossible to foresee the outcome of this Russian action, but the best experts in the world are already beginning to indicate that Russia will not survive this war, even if it manages to overthrow the government in Ukraine.
Opinions such as those of Francis Fukuyama, political scientist and famous author of "The End of History and the Last Man", are decisive, stating a few days ago on his page "American Purpose", in an article entitled "Preparing for defeat": "Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion" (see Preparing for defeat, in https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/).
Dr. Hu Wei, Vice President of the Public Policy Research Center of the State Council Counseling Office, President of the Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, is of the same opinion for China: “Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin’s attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia’s domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs” (see Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukainian War and China’s Choice, in https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/).
These authoritative opinions point out that the war in Ukraine will end very badly for Russia, with all the associated political and economic consequences. The sanctions imposed on Russia, one of the most important being the cut-off of crude oil shipments to Europe and the US, puts Venezuela in the eye of the international hurricane for urgent oil supply.
That is why the envoys of the U.S. government came to negotiate with Maduro an urgent solution to the situation in Venezuela, with an early election with the official opposition, as requested by the international community. And although Venezuela is not in the current position of supplier due to the well-known reasons for the destruction of PDVSA, this does not necessarily imply that it will not be in the near future with the corresponding partnerships and investments, in exchange for the corresponding softening of the sanctions.
Russia will not be in a position, neither militarily nor financially, to support the Miraflores regime, so the US offer may be very attractive for the corrupt claque of the regime, even more so due to the current prices of over USD 100 per barrel of oil. The Brent barrel, reached USD 137.00 a few days ago (a 13 year and 8 month high, see https://www.preciopetroleo.net/maximo-anual-del-brent-en-2022.html).
The official opposition is more than happy with this new situation and will do whatever the U.S. government says, without realizing that its levels of acceptance among Venezuelans have never been lower. Anyone they put as a candidate in the G4, including Guaidó, will be rejected by the population. And they will accept -as they have done so far- the electoral conditions set by the Maduro regime. At this moment, the regime would sweep any election controlled by Maduro's CNE.
The first factor of the perfect storm, the war in Ukraine. The second, the need for crude oil on the international market. The third, a diminished, bent, corrupt and power- and money-hungry opposition. And the fourth factor, and perhaps the most important, an International Community willing to do whatever it takes to change the power equation in Venezuela to normalize the political situation and get along with a single command, whoever it may be, Maduro or the broken bats of the G4. And the Venezuelans? Thank you very much. We do not count there...
With only the first official visit of the U.S. delegation, Maduro has already released two prisoners from the CITGO Directive, lowered the levels of confrontation with the U.S., is now advocating peace in Ukraine when previously they unconditionally supported Putin in his war, and resumed talks with the official opposition to go to Mexico, in a new "reformatting of the dialogue" with the official opposition (see in Spanish Jorge Rodriguez announced "reformatting of the dialogue" with the Unitary Platform, in https://mnwey.awslvpni.com/2022/03/15/jorge-rodriguez-dialogo-plataforma-unitaria/). I can't even imagine what will come out of the upcoming meetings.
So the pot is already boiling for the official announcements of early presidential elections in Mexico, with the blessing of the International Community, with the US at the head. And you will ask me: And what is the problem? Wasn't that what we wanted, to get out of the regime as soon as possible with early elections with them? And my answer would be not one, but two: a) no, we would not get out of the regime, we would consolidate it. There is NO ONE in the current official opposition capable of inspiring Venezuelans enough to face an electoral fraud such as the one the regime will plan for those elections; and b) The regime would be legitimized before an International Community that endorsed that electoral mechanism, so the most important sanctions would disappear after that election, allowing the regime to start a new era of oil business, corrupt intermediaries included.
All this may seem apocalyptic to you. The solution that ANCO has proposed to Venezuelans is that there is an International Community convinced that the presidential elections are not the answer to the suffering of Venezuelans, but a radical change in the paradigm of power and that we begin the Refoundation of the Nation through a Constituent Assembly process of an Original nature, negotiated among all the parties involved in this crisis, as I have pointed out on countless occasions. If the International Community has already decided that elections are the way to go, as it seems to have already done, then we are heading towards a perfect storm, like George Clooney in the movie. If we do not think of an immediate solution, what we will be left with is to pick up the dead from the rubble of whatever is left afterwards, or pray that we do not disappear in the depths of the ocean, like the Andrea Gail ship.
Caracas, March 17, 2022
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