It is difficult to start a new year without being optimistic, even when everything seems to indicate the contrary. According to the commonly accepted definition, an optimist is a person "who tends to see and judge things in their most favorable aspect" (DRAE in its first meaning of the word).
And we are obliged to be so in order to continue a struggle in which everything seems to indicate that we have gone backwards since this very date exactly one year ago, when the mandate of the President-in-Charge was renewed, backed by a renewed Statute of the Transition on December 26, 2020.
With the new reform to the Statute for the Transition, approved in second discussion on January 4, 2022, it is clear to all Venezuelans that the President-in-Charge is even more dependent on the decisions of the political parties gathered in the renewed Parliament on January 5, 2022.
This greater dependence of the President-in-Charge on the parties, distances the possibilities of executive decisions tending to the liberation of Venezuelans, taking into account that Venezuela is a structurally presidential country, and that this new version of the Statute unconstitutionally transfers its competencies to the National Assembly.
Seen in this light, what we see from the outside are parties with a single agenda: to survive the regime at any cost in order to reach the presidential elections in 2024, renewing the Statute of the Transition for 2023 and the beginning of 2024. The problem of this is how the rest of Venezuelans will be left.
But in between, and so that we don't bother, since 2024 is three years away, they will sweeten the pill with a recall referendum, which they have no chance of winning because the criminals, if they let them get there, it will be for the convenience of an improbable recognition by the International Community.
With this recall, the whole year 2022 will be lost, another year more -in the unlikely event that it is held-, with all the suffering of shortages, hyperinflation and the criminal scourge of those who misgovern us, so that after they lose it, they will come out with the excuse that what we have left is the agenda of the presidential elections that were already scheduled.
This is the foreseeable scenario for the year 2022, if the Venezuelan people accept this agenda to the politicians of the National Assembly, and why not to say it, also to those countries in the International Community that care little about the suffering of this people as long as the waters in Venezuela calm down and their own national security is not affected.
But those who believe that this apparent "normality" may not hide the germ of a generalized social protest will be mistaken. To insist on elections without solving the serious institutional problem of the country, which means that not only the President must be changed but also his entire support base, is to ignore what is happening in Venezuela.
If the political parties insist on continuing to ignore the situation of Venezuelans while offering solutions for 2024, they will be cutting off any general support they think they will have for elections. In fact they will never get there. The regime will have changed the rules of the game before those elections occur in 2024.
Waiting until 2024, with a recall in 2022 to which the regime will only accede if it is going to win, applies to it the phrase of political strategist James Carville and applied by Bill Clinton in his electoral campaign against George Bush senior, which indicated "it's the economy, stupid" and which has been used to highlight aspects that are considered essential in politics.
In this case, the aspect to highlight is that the problem of Venezuelans is NOW not 2024, where nobody knows how the country will be, and makes Venezuela shout "it is for 2022, stupid!". In fact it was already for much earlier, so much so that it could be said for 2019, the first wasted year of the Government in Charge of Juan Guaidó Márquez.
What solution are they giving us for 2022? None. A Recall Referendum in worse conditions than the last one, having to raise 20% of the electoral roll in very adverse circumstances -pandemia included-, without the presence of the millions of Venezuelans that were in the country in 2016.
Although the political parties continue not to mention or deny the constituent solution, this is the immediate solution that addresses the problem of a Presidency and the rest of the illegitimate institutions of the country, and that with an adequate accompaniment of the International Community, can be implemented in a minimum of 6 months and a maximum of one year.
To replace the regime, establish a Transitional Government and hold elections of the Public Powers in freedom, is what the Constitutional provision of calling for a Constituent Assembly is for, with the electoral arbitration of the International Community, without counting on the complete Re-foundation of the country. What is lacking here is the political will.
And how do we get to that point where the parties, the International Community -especially the USA- and the Venezuelan people are convinced that Refounding Venezuela must go through this profoundly renovating process? How much more suffering will we have to go through before a process that we all agree must be carried out?
When Venezuelans, this very year 2022, we all speak out, demanding that we can no longer wait one more day for a solution to this disaster and we put pressure wherever we have to, inside and outside the country, only then will the political will for a constituent process begin to emerge. Then it is up to us...
Caracas, January 6, 2022
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