Venezuelans are very prone to take everything that happens to us as a joke. Our personality as a people makes us a unique society that forgets the misfortunes to which we are subjected. This quality makes us feel very proud, and this dimension of laughing at ourselves is, to say the least, remarkable.
The most recent case of Nicolás Maduro Moros announcing from China the possibility that a Venezuelan could reach the moon with the help of the Asian giant, exploded in local social networks with memes of all kinds, from a Maduro dressed as an astronaut with a Chinese one-way ticket, to the most recalcitrant criticism of a regime that without taking care of public hospitals is thinking that level of political propaganda.
Already in the past, the propaganda of the regime, with Chávez putting 3 satellites in orbit by the hand of the Chinese (not one, but 3!) represented a lost investment of more than 400 Million Dollars, when in March 2020 and by human error "the regime of Nicolás Maduro acknowledged that the first satellite of the country, of 5,100 kilograms, built and launched in China in October 2008, was left out of orbit with no possibility of recovery. This "failure" left a large part of the country with interruptions in Internet connections and in some radio and television transmissions" (see in Spanish, ABC de España, Venezuela loses its "jewel of the crown" of Chavista telecommunications satellite, in https://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-venezuela-pierde-satelite-telecomunicaciones-joya-corona-chavista-202004062030_noticia.html).
They had to switch "almost all the television and radio services that worked with the Venesat-1 satellite to the North American satellite Intelsat 14", having to put their "anti-imperialist" propaganda in their pockets with the greatest shame. Who knows how much the new propaganda piece of the regime is going to cost us Venezuelans this time, by putting us even more in debt with China to put a man on the moon.
But the truth is that the issue with China is not a tall tale. China is Venezuela's first creditor, and the oil agreements with that Asian country are being paid with Venezuelan crude oil, to the detriment of the urgent needs of our people in health, education, food, housing, services, etc., etc., etc., etc. ..... We have seen absolutely nothing of this Chinese investment, among other reasons, due to the larceny of characters such as Tareck El Aissami. And even though the few data indicate that the outstanding oil-backed debt with the Chinese has been reduced from the more than 60 billion dollars initially with Chávez in 2007, to an amount between 11 and 12 billion dollars, Maduro went to China looking for more credit (ver in Spanish, INFOBAE, China resumes ties with Venezuela under U.S. watchful eye, in https://www.infobae.com/venezuela/2023/05/03/china-reanuda-los-lazos-con-venezuela-ante-la-mirada-atenta-de-estados-unidos/).
But the world continued to turn and China has not been the same since 2007. A September intelligence report by one of the most renowned international analysts, Ian Bremmer, describes in a nutshell the current situation of a China in crisis:
“After forty years of extraordinary growth, China’s economy may be entering an era of stagnation. Youth unemployment just hit a record high of 21%. Manufacturing activity is contracting. Exports have declined on the back of sticky inflation and soaring interest rates in the US and Europe. Foreign investment has stalled. Capital outflows are accelerating. The property sector, which makes up a fifth of the economy, is crashing”…“The economic and financial risks feel more urgent than ever as the limits of China’s growth model have become obvious. Gone are the days of 10% growth – the IMF now expects the Chinese economy to grow under 4% a year for the coming years, well below the government’s official target of “around 5%.” The slowdown is underpinned by structural challenges to China’s long-term economic prospects, including unfavorable demographics, high indebtedness, and intensifying geopolitical competition with the United States and its allies” (see Ian Bremmer, Gzero, China’s economic woes, explained, in https://www.gzeromedia.com/chinas-economic-woes-explained).
In the midst of this Chinese mess, a product of the economic Cold War between China and the US, the regime, which has nowhere to run, goes to China to continue borrowing under the same scheme of the past, using our crude oil reserves as a guarantee. But the Chinese, who are not in the same situation as before, do not see us now, as in the past, as sheep to be sheared, but as meat for the barbecue.
In a note last month, Dr. Evan Ellis, a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute and an expert on the region's relations with China and other actors in the non-Western hemisphere, answers precisely that concern. The note is entitled "What China's long-term economic weakness means for the developing world" (ver What China’s Long-Term Economic Weakness Means for the Developing World, en https://revanellis.com/what-chinas-long-term-economic-weakness-means-for-the-developing-world). Dr. Ellis explains there that this problem of the Chinese means quite a lot to us:
“Financial weakness among Chinese state-owned enterprises and partner banks may slow loans and major investment commitments abroad, including major transportation infrastructure projects, although resources will likely continue to flow in high-priority sectors such as telecommunications, renewable energy generation and transmission, electric vehicles, lithium supply chains, and other strategic sectors that the China has publicly prioritized. China’s government will also likely continue to channel limited amounts of money to countries that Beijing seeks to reward for switching recognition from Taiwan to China, including El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras, in order to attract others to do so as well. To the extent the Chinese government allows the yuan to depreciate against the dollar, it will also harm populist regimes such as those in Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela who have promoted the use of the yuan in commodities and other contracts, while disincentivizing others from following the practice” (resaltado nuestro).
To put it in Venezuelan, the Chinese are preparing to pay with devalued yuans, or in other words, with fewer dollars, our main export product, making not only the payment of our debt with them longer, but we will be practically giving them oil at a price that is already preferential, but increasing our long-term debt. And the debt will continue to grow in interest year after year, especially with these criminals who control the Venezuelan government, and who are dazzled when they are offered shiny mirrors like putting a Venezuelan on the moon. Greater imbecility, impossible.
China's strategy, with countries increasingly indebted to them, is that they can never be repaid, keeping countries around their political orbit in debt, using them as pieces in a global Monopoly game. That was the case with Sri Lanka, which was forced to hand over part of its sovereignty, the port of Hambantota, to China in 2017, in payment of its debt: "The island nation soon found itself unable to service the Chinese debt. Beijing took the opportunity to force Sri Lanka in 2017 to cede the Hambantota port on a 99-year lease to the Chinese companies that built and financed it" (see in Spanish, Diario Las Américas, China uses Sri Lanka's indebtedness to show military strength, in https://dialogo-americas.com/es/articles/china-utiliza-endeudamiento-de-sri-lanka-para-mostrar-fuerza-militar/). If the regime continues in office, Venezuelans will have to get ready to see what part of the Venezuelan territory Maduro and his criminals will hand over to the Chinese to pay their debts...
Unfortunately, the Americans still think that the Venezuelan case does not represent a national security problem, or at least that is what they give us to understand, so as not to help us to get out of a criminal kidnapping as we should. Wait and see if they insist on indirectly helping the regime, leaving them enough space with the collaborationists of the opposition, to screw Maduro through the electoral process, increasing day by day the debt with the Chinese. This is the true Chinese tale of Venezuela, which has the funny anecdote of putting a Venezuelan on the moon. However, the painful truth is that we are all already on the moon if we are not aware of this crude reality...
Caracas, September 18, 2023
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TIC’s & Derechos Humanos,
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
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