It is not known for sure who coined the popular phrase: "One accompanies one's friends to the grave, but does not bury oneself with them". That is certainly a phrase very typical of the pragmatism of the parties of the Unitary Platform, which are very clear that life goes on even if the regime tramples on the political rights of Venezuelans and especially that of its candidate, and they cannot stay out of the electoral game. Hence, they are already considering to consider as lost the pretensions of María Corina Machado (MCM) as candidate, and in their way of seeing the panorama, she marches in procession to the electoral grave, straight to the hole diligently opened for her by the regime, for which reason they have already started bidding for Manuel Rosales to be her substitute (see in Spanish UNT, AD and a wing of PJ are bidding for Rosales to be MCM's substitute, in https://venezuelausa.org/2024/03/unt-ad-y-un-ala-de-pj-pujan-para-que-rosales-sea-el-sustituto-de-maria-corina-machado/).
It could be said that Rosales was saving himself for this stellar moment and registering as candidate in the CNE after the discarding of MCM -because there was no way he would do it before if she was qualified-, since he had no chance against her in the October primaries. With "opponents" like that, who needs enemies. But what this pseudo political leadership has not realized is that it is not MCM who is going to the grave, it is the Venezuelan electoral system as a whole, and with their behavior they will turn out to be its gravediggers.
Even Father Luis Ugalde, in an article published today, urges the candidate to yield her political rights to the regime, closing his article with this pearl worthy of being put in a frame: "We must fight for her to be a candidate for the presidential election, or in extreme case, put the weight of her leadership with another candidacy of hers and ours, capable and open to join forces for the transition and national recovery" (see in Spanish The political transition we need, in https://www.costadelsolfm.org/2024/03/13/luis-ugalde-la-transicion-politica-que-necesitamos/) (emphasis added). Could it be that Father Ugalde also has his candidate for that "extreme case"? It would not be strange at all if it came from the sphere of the UCAB from where the standard bearer of the Primary Commission also came out, in party consensus and with the blessing of Ugalde, could it be the same? Who knows...
As from the July 28 election, no election in Venezuela will have any value, because the matter goes beyond electoral cheating and technical fraud. The only way the regime will have to "win" elections from now on will be to fabricate their opponents to suit their needs, to raise their hands to the regime's candidate even if they have won. Rosales already did it in 2006, why would he not do it again in 2024?
Given these circumstances, Venezuelans would have no reason to attend another election, especially when from this very moment the US intelligence agencies consider that these elections have been handed over to the regime (see in Spanish, La Patilla, La inteligencia norteamericana da por hecho el fraude de Nicolás Maduro en las elecciones, en https://tyht.cgixix.com/2024/03/12/abc-la-inteligencia-de-eeuu-da-por-hecho-el-fraude-de-nicolas-maduro-en-las-elecciones/).
And then why go to elections like this, with or without Ugalde's candidate? When the regime sees someone who stands out and can win an election against its candidate for President, Governor or Mayor, they will do the same thing they have done to MCM. This may serve as a lesson to those who still believe the story that they will obtain power through presidential elections, by registering in the new CNE farce for July 28.
In this context, what is the point of continuing to sustain an electoral garb? Based on this premise, we are heading towards the suppression of elections or the early death of the Venezuelan electoral system, as we have known it up to now. Why continue with the farce of a CNE permanently changing or inventing votes? Setting up such a set-up is complicated and the regime, by continuing to count in the same way all the time, would have to invest a lot of energy and resources to make farce after farce credible, without counting on the bill of the scorpions, which also have to be maintained. Sooner rather than later, we will see the first steps for a second degree presidential election, from the illegitimate National Assembly, as it happens in Cuba.
That is the true consequence of accepting willingly and "because nothing else can be done", the violation in a shameless and open manner, of the political rights of MCM and of those of us who voted for her, and all those who speak and support possible "substitutes" of MCM to those elections of July 28, will be openly collaborating with making that future reality present, whether they are aware of it or not.
At this point, to demand from the regime the return to the Barbados Electoral Agreement is to ask for mangoes from a guava tree, it is to continue wasting time. And without disregarding any protest, rally or march made in reaction to the non-registration of MCM in the CNE for the July 28 elections, as a consequence of an illegal "disqualification" already shamelessly announced by the CNE in its web page, the circumstances will not change in any way. Something would have to happen that completely modifies the whole political panorama overnight. That could be possible, but so far there is no contrary indicator that the electoral schedule of the regime will be fulfilled... without MCM on the ballot. And it is on those facts that we must elaborate to draw some conclusions.
Where does all this leave us? That the struggle must continue with the tools that we democrats still have available, and by different paths than those followed so far. Whatever the outcome of the July 28 elections, as of right now those elections are as or more irritating and illegitimate than the presidential elections that occurred in May 2018, not recognized on a planetary scale. This is already a fact. We are facing the definition of a failed state.
Some of us Venezuelans have proposed that the true opposition leadership, trampled by the regime and led by MCM, summon the people to a Constituent Assembly process of an Original nature, based on Constitutional Articles 5, 70, 347, 348, 349 and 350 (see Constituent Plan B, at https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/constituent-plan-b.html).
I will not go into the details of the how, but rather into the what and the why of this proposal. The how, as I have already explained in this blog on several occasions, changes constantly depending on the political circumstances, and requires a fundamental agreement of all the forces that are truly interested in a profound change of the power structures in Venezuela.
What is a Constituent Assembly. If we all agree that a National Constituent Assembly is the highest normative instrument to remake the political and coexistence bases of this destroyed country, handed over to the international partners of a criminal regime, the rest -and the most difficult part- is to agree on how to convene it, guaranteeing the participation of all Venezuelans wherever they are. This is only possible now with a unifying leadership that we already have due to circumstances of destiny and the political situation, and as a consequence of a primary election without a CNE.
Paradoxically, Chávez's 1999 Constitution enables us to demand political participation and the convocation of a Constituent Assembly outside of the constituted powers. That is, without asking anyone's permission. The collection of 15% of the signatures of the voters of the Electoral Registry required for such convocation should not be an obstacle at this time, considering that this number could already be in exile, far from the threat of the regime, without the participation of all those who, being in Venezuela, would gladly sign such convocation. Such a process can be called tomorrow, if we all agree that this is the way -the what- and under a firm leadership that agrees with all the factors on how to do it.
We have been down this road of dirt and holes before. We did it in 2004 against a regime with more money and more power, with Chávez at its head. And even so, that regime, with better conditions than now, could not prevent us from collecting the necessary signatures to activate a recall. Now the challenge would be to do so to call for a Constituent Assembly. For those who did not suffer that ordeal because they were not old enough to be protagonists, as many Venezuelans were, I recommend you to read Apartheid of the XXI Century by Ana Julia Jatar, Chapter 2, Lists, fear and discrimination (download it in Spanish at https://www.sumate.org/documentos/ApartheidSigloXXI/Apartheid%20del%20Siglo%20XXI%20Capitulo2.pdf).
The majority of these signatures were collected by US FROM CIVIL SOCIETY, not by the political parties. We organized ourselves for that from the 4 cardinal points of the country. But we did it in coordination with the political opposition parties of the time, gathered in the Coordinadora Democrática. It was by no means easy. We had many disagreements with the politicians, but we finally achieved the convocation in spite of all the traps and delays set by the Hugo Chavez regime. And if we learned anything from the mistakes made back then, we must apply them to a new attempt for the recovery of the country.
Going through all this again is by no means easy. On the contrary, it is damned difficult, but it would be even more difficult for the regime because they would not find themselves with the same assholes who committed a technical fraud in the recall referendum and hid from the opposition people in the early morning of August 15, 2004. It is in the hands of the new leadership born of the vote on October 22, 2023, to decide whether to let itself be buried, or to continue the struggle having the tools available and the support of the International Community for an alternative peaceful and Constitutional solution.
Caracas, March 13, 2024
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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