It is difficult to demonstrate a situation to the world when basic concepts prevail over realities. For example, who from the outside could even argue that an election can resolve a power dispute in any country? No one. Hence, the International Community has decided since the Joint Declaration of the USA, the European Union and Canada, on June 25, 2021, that, “The peaceful solution to that deep political, social, and economic crisis has to come from the Venezuelan people themselves through Venezuelan-led, comprehensive negotiations with participation from all stakeholders. A time-bound and comprehensive negotiation process should restore the country’s institutions and allow for all Venezuelans to express themselves politically through credible, inclusive and transparent local, parliamentary, and presidential elections” (see U.S.-EU-Canada: Joint Statement on Venezuela, in https://www.state.gov/u-s-eu-canada-joint-statement-on-venezuela/) (emphasis added).
We have long insisted that it is clear from this statement that these countries, together with the opposition political leadership, have already decided for Venezuelans that "credible, inclusive and transparent local, parliamentary and presidential elections" with Nicolás Maduro Moros illegitimately exercising power in Venezuela, would make possible "restore of the country's institutions". Although we disagree with that position, unfortunately it is the reality we are facing in Venezuela.
And based on these premises, apparently written in stone, all Venezuelan political activities have revolved since that moment, to the point that regardless of the fact that the regime has left the negotiating table in Mexico, we are heading, unfailingly, to an electoral process with the regime, in the same or worse conditions that have always existed with a kidnapped Electoral Power.
In view of this, the political opposition, which has repeatedly betrayed Venezuelans, has imposed -once again- as a formula for the selection of the opposition candidate a process of "primary elections", around which the parties have revolved, thinking that Venezuelans, like sheep without discernment capacity, will supposedly vote to immolate themselves at the altar of the CNE in the presidential elections called by the regime.
But as always, and thank God, one thing is what the donkey thinks and another is who rides it, as the wise popular saying goes. In spite of all the massive information campaign unleashed by the parties and their traditional anchors, so that people will vote for the broken bats of the parties in these primaries, some of which were already presidential candidates who shamelessly handed over the elections to Castro-Chavismo-Madurismo in the last 20 years, people are reluctant to vote in the primaries, and even less if it occurs to the Primary Commission to involve the CNE in the process.
In fact, the most recent Public Report (CATI) of the pollster Meganálisis of February 2023, clearly indicates that out of the "71.1% who think that with Chavismo and Maduro Venezuela has no future or hope", 83.7% believe that the primary elections should be held "without the presence of the CNE". And of that 83.7%, 96.2% WOULD NOT GO TO VOTE if the CNE is present with its machines (see in Spanish Estudio CATI Verdad Venezuela Febrero 2023, https://twitter.com/Meganalisis/status/1628599897153851392).
But the worst is perhaps not that, of those identified as adverse to Chavismo (71.1%) were asked: "Of the following possible candidates in the opposition primary elections, for which one would you vote?", 32.8% would not vote for any of them. In other words, the candidate would come out of 38.3% of a universe of 71.1%. Do you think this is the necessary strength to defeat, as required, overwhelmingly, Castro-Chavismo-Madurismo in a fight where the hands would be tied and with an opponent armed to the teeth? For God's sake!
If the International Community has told us that it will recognize whoever comes out of this presidential election in 2024 or before, don't you think that this method of choosing a candidate to face the regime should be different? The mere fact that the chosen mechanism emphasizes, in its majority, those who in one way or another are rejected by the majority of the opposition people, in good logic, whoever comes out of that election is already a loser.
Even, María Corina Machado, who appears first in that poll, and who has insisted that she will not be measured in primaries if the CNE appears to count the votes, only has 16.7%, which is a pyrrhic figure of what is required to defeat in an election these delinquents who have the CNE on their side. Therefore, the mechanism of primaries, under the current conditions of the country, ends up becoming the ideal tool for the emergence of a candidate that conforms to the wishes of the regime to deliver the election, as Manuel Rosales and Henrique Capriles did before, since the Primary Commission is on a direct route to deliver to the CNE the counting of the votes of the opposition.
And you may ask me, and what is the problem, is it not necessary to have primaries to decide on a candidate to face the regime, if we have to go to presidential elections as well? And the answer is not as obvious as the question.
Such a process was justified in an opposition Venezuela like the one existing in 2012, and yet the regime with its CNE and TSJ persecuted the Primary Commission, and its then President, Dr. Teresa Albanes, so that the voting notebooks would be delivered to her, in order to start with another Tascón's list of the opposition voters.
In the current political circumstances of the country, anyone coming out of a primary process sponsored by the CNE of the regime, could be challenged by any other option that appears, which does not lend itself to such manipulation, bringing together the feeling of national change of that majority that does not eat that circus. And this could hardly be considered as a "division of the opposition", because a candidate originating from such primaries would not represent the great majority of conscious Venezuelans, who left well behind their condition of sheep that go to the electoral slaughterhouse guided by the parties.
In this way, it would be truly decided and in the political arena itself, which will be the candidate with the best credentials, unifying the opposition sentiment to face the regime, capable of finishing the job that neither Rosales nor Capriles did, giving the definitive fight that will finally defend the opposition country. That would be the only way for Venezuelans to dare to go again to another contest with the regime. Otherwise, that presidential election will be a carbon copy of what we have already lived, and for that no primaries are needed...
Caracas, March 1, 2023
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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