By Luis Manuel Aguana
The recent statements on Venezuela
by U. S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have lent themselves to the most
diverse interpretations, from the most political to the most aggressive, which
point to a violent way out of the Venezuelan crisis.
The truth is that the United
States is in the dilemma of not being willing to let them pass again what
happened to them with Cuba, but now much more serious with a country of the
characteristics of ours full of strategic riches, and stay at the same time in a
peaceful line that does not involve direct intervention. They are desperately
looking for a political solution to support, that does not imply the continuity
of these criminals. And unfortunately the official opposition is not helping
them in any way to achieve that.
What would you do if you were in
Tillerson's shoes, if you already had verified information about the
oppositional collaborationism and the regime's corroborated intentions of
continuing in power through its cheated technical-electoral mechanism? I'd bet
on what there is, and that's the military. At this moment the word of the
official opposition is as valid for Washington as it is for the Maduro
government: absolutely nothing. What does the American government do then?
Appeal to the last bastion: the Armed Forces. And I believe that this would be
a serious mistake, but of which the international community and in particular
the United States are not responsible but we, who from the opposition, have not
known how to propose a political -with a large, democratic P- and democratic
solution that they can support, beyond going out to play electoral games with
the government.
According to
a Reuters note, Tillerson suggested the possibility of the Venezuelan armed forces
themselves taking action: “In the history
of Venezuela and South American countries, the military are often agents of
change when things are very bad and leaders can no longer serve the people”
he said. “If this will be the case or
not, I don't know” (Tillerson raises the option of Venezuelan military
overthrowing Maduro, see Reuters’s note in Spanish at https://lta.reuters.com/article/topNews/idLTAKBN1FL6DQ-OUSLT).
But he does know. If there is no
political solution, it is not necessary to have the American intelligence
apparatus to know that the last bastion of order is the Armed Forces, and that
at the moment of a collapse of the regime for all the reasons of unfeasibility
that we know, those who end up collecting the broken pieces are the military.
Maduro's government resembles a
pressure cooker that has no steam leakage and is increasingly being set on fire
from the outside. Sooner or later it will explode. What the Americans - and we
don't want it either - is for it to explode uncontrollably because the remedy
could be worse than the disease, and the military is with the government until
it's gone.
In a situation of disorder due to the fall of the regime due
to the state of chaos and ungovernability, anyone can rise with power. It may
be that those who come, of course military, propose a change towards democracy
but may also not, as a rearrangement of current narcosols that deepen the same
model but without Maduro.
To press for the exit of the regime
without an adequate channeling to freedom and democracy of the forces that
unleash themselves through internal and external pressure would be as wrong as
to leave them to remain in power, negotiating dialogues with criminals. Then where
would the solution be?
We think that the solution would be
to offer a valve to channel that external pressure that is being applied to the
regime that gives movement to a constitutional mechanism that allows the
country to express its opinion on what to do with the problem, giving a chance
to both the grassroots forces that support the government and those that
support the opposition. And that is not a presidential election, no matter how
constitutional they may be, but a popular plebiscite pronouncement, measured by
international observation and under absolutely transparent rules with
unobjectionable arbitrators. This is because no election would be a solution
with an unconstitutional constituent in office and electoral power at the
orders of the regime.
I indicated
in my last note (An alternative agenda for Venezuela, at http://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/an-alternative-agenda-for-venezuela.html) that any election would first have to involve
dismantling Maduro's constitutional parapet as part of a constitutional
restoration procedure. That procedure would then have as its first step to
consult with the people about this dismantlement that would generate the
necessary conditions to resume the institutional life of the country in order
to recover the electoral process. In the National Constituent Alliance we
believe that what is required now is not elections but a consultation of the
people for institutional rescue. Ask him whether or not he wants a Constituent
Assembly, to restore the right that Maduro violated by calling it without
having that constitutional prerogative. Then authorize the designation of a
Transitional Government and National Unity, but from the hand of the people in
Popular Consultation.
We believe
that national and international pressure should be directed towards achieving
this from the government, not simply to press for "Maduro vete ya"
and for a civilian-military junta to appear out of nowhere. That's only good
for those in the game who are better positioned to position themselves where
and when the piñata falls to the ground. With a Popular Consultation conducted
openly and with all guarantees in place, the regime has the chance to walk out
the front door, negotiating orderly negotiations for its exit, and to leave
when a people legitimately represented in a National Constituent Assembly
decides on a transition from its bosom. Not only would the opposition forces be
there, but also those that legitimately represent the government. It would be a
controlled fall where we guarantee what comes next.
That is the
kind of solution that the Tillerson State Department and the International
Community should be aware of so that the regime is pressured from the outside
to achieve such a solution. That's the kind of thing that U. S. officials are
unaware of because Venezuelans no longer have valid interlocutors outside of
the country, so it only remains for the characters of Rex Tillerson's
importance, the forced dilemma of calling on the military to "solve
this" as a final alternative, because "the leaders can no longer
serve the people," as he pointed out. But we cannot be satisfied with any
solution because this people have already suffered too much from the mistakes
of those who lead us.
On the
occasion of the fifteenth anniversary of April 11,2002, I wrote last year a
note dedicated to the fallen of that day. (see “Vox Populi, vox Dei” in Spanish
http://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2017/04/vox-populi-vox-dei.html), with the promise of continuing to
fight for justice and help them recover the freedom for which they died. Let us
hope that the memory of them and of hundreds more who have died since 2002 will
allow these ideas to reach those who must arrive so that they can also be
evaluated for the benefit of a true peaceful and constitutional solution,
despite the multiple interests of those who are fighting for power - thence and
here - but without thinking about the lives that have cost that and those that
can still cost. May the Voice of the People be the Voice of God...
Caracas,
February 5, 2018
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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