It is not easy to give an opinion on what an international negotiation is about. When these processes have occurred with the regime I have always wondered what my professor in the Master's Degree in International Economics at FACES-UCV, Dr. Carlos Guerón, whom I had the honor to meet in his chair of International Negotiation, almost 30 years ago, just before his unfortunate physical demise, would have said. I once referred to Prof. Guerón in a 2017 note (see 4 questions for the destiny of Venezuela, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/4-questions-for-destiny-of-venezuela.html) because he always insisted that one could not sit down to negotiate about God with Ayatollah Khomeini. It was simply not only stupid, but completely useless. Because how could anyone discuss with a communist the Bolshevik revolution, the assault on the Moncada Barracks or that the imperialists did not assassinate Salvador Allende? Because the question immediately arose: should we negotiate with drug traffickers and terrorists? Could we negotiate with those who wiped out our country like locusts and have them accept that, and leave in peace?
In those days of late 2017, after the Popular Consultation of July 16, it was very recent and clear to us that the official opposition had betrayed the popular mandate, negotiating it for the regional elections that occurred at the end of that year. Somehow the same thing is happening now but with an exponentially aggravated situation with clear symptoms of repeating the same history, but with the regime seeking an international legitimacy that the events in the country and the sustained violations to Human Rights have taken away from it in these almost 4 years of dismemberment of Venezuela. Now the regime is looking for the official opposition to legitimize them in the face of the International Community, seeking recognition of their illegitimate Presidency and Parliament, and at the same time to return the money they have stolen from Venezuelans, not to mention lifting the sanctions imposed on them for precisely violating democracy and the freedom of Venezuelans. It is impossible to be more brazen.
However, the opposition has gone to "negotiate" in Mexico. Since that 2017 note I have maintained -and still maintain- that the only thing negotiable with Nicolás Maduro Moros and his thousand thieves are the terms of their exit from the government. That is what the opposition should be negotiating and not recognizing them from the outset as the "Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela" as they subscribed yesterday August 13, 2021 in their “Memorando de Entendimiento” (see in Spanish Memorando de Entendimiento, in https://dqtjif.bitlydns.net/2021/08/13/memorando-del-acuerdo-de-entendimiento-entre-la-oposicion-y-el-chavismo-documento/). From my perspective, the regime only with that signature achieved the disappearance of Juan Guaidó Márquez's presidency in charge.
But I will give the opposition the benefit of the doubt. In a true negotiation process, understood as such and with the seriousness of the case, the interests of the parties should be perfectly covered, NOT THEIR POSITIONS. I will explain myself better based on an example that Prof. Guerón gave us in his lecture, when Israel and Egypt negotiated peace at Camp David, USA, in 1978. Israel had occupied Egypt's Sinai Peninsula during the Six Day War. When they met their positions were irreconcilable Israel would not budge on keeping the territory it had conquered in the Sinai, and Egypt insisted that sovereignty over its territory be returned to it. Many maps were drawn but all failed to return control of the peninsula to Egypt. For Israel it was not possible to return to the same pre-war situation. Both positions were very clear.
Then the analysis of the interests of both parties was made. Israel's main interest was its security. It would not accept a neighbor armed to the teeth breathing down its neck. Egypt's interest was to regain sovereignty over a territory that had belonged to them for thousands of years. President Mohamed Anwar al Sadat of Egypt and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin negotiated at Camp David a plan that returned full sovereignty of the Sinai to Egypt, but guaranteed Israel's security through demilitarized zones in the previously conquered territory. The interests of both sides were reconciled, not their initial positions. In this way both were able to sign the peace.
Returning to our Venezuelan case, from the perspective of Dr. Guerón's example, it is the analysis of interests, not positions, that should be aired in this process in Mexico. But that is precisely where the cat is out of the bag. Are the interests of the parties reconcilable? Let's see.
Let's first examine the positions: What is the position of Maduro and his criminal gang? That they be recognized outside Venezuela as the legitimate government of the country, with all the prerogatives that this entails, with the consequent lifting of the sanctions imposed by the International Community. What is the position of the official opposition? That the regime accepts to go to fair, free and verifiable Presidential and Parliamentary elections, releases political prisoners, reestablishes the parties, accepts humanitarian aid, etc.... In other words, to accept a democratic condition and respect for the Rule of Law and Human Rights that they have never had since they seized power. If we consider the authoritarian mood demonstrated by the regime in more than 20 years, we can conclude that both positions are irreconcilable.
I will try to analyze what could be the interests of both parties. Interest of the regime: only one, to remain in power. Interest of the opposition: to replace the regime in power. If someone is already in power, why should he/she yield in a negotiation to be replaced? Hence the irreconcilable positions. If the interests are not complementary, how could a solution be achieved?
The interests of the parties could be complementary if what we are talking about here is the survival of both, not the one in power. Hence, a refocusing of such negotiation should conclude that neither the presidential elections or any other, nor the recognition of an illegitimate regime should be the reason for such negotiation BUT THE WELFARE OF THE VENEZOLAN PEOPLE, with the guarantee that both parties return to the democratic game (if that is possible) as a way to gain access to power. Otherwise there would be no conciliation of interests.
And what process could guarantee that? There is only one possible one: letting the people decide. But not in an "election" of officers, but in an election that designates those who can change the reality of the country. And that in our Constitution has a name: Original National Constituent Assembly. This was our proposal from the Governing Council of the Citizens' Conference for Constitutional and Democratic Restoration and from ANCO since our foundation, where we indicated that this negotiating process failed from the beginning precisely for the reasons previously explained: the interests are opposed and do not go in the direction of benefiting the main actors, which are all Venezuelans, but rather those of the negotiators who claim to represent us. Thus, whatever the outcome of these negotiations in Mexico will not benefit the Venezuelan people.
If a different negotiation is proposed, where a Constituent Assembly is the center of the discussion, then the survival interests of both parties could be discussed in a civilized manner, regardless of the condition of the parties. The center of the interests of the parties would not be THE POWER, but the PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE, until settling precisely in which way the power would be occupied afterwards.
ANCO's recent press release (see in Spanish ANCO reafirma y propone al país y a la Comunidad Internacional una Ruta para Refundar la Nación, in https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2021/08/anco-reafirma-y-propone-al-pais-y-la.html) explains in what terms such negotiation process would be proposed: "...WE PROPOSE to the International Community, represented by the US, the EU and Canada, to the sectors represented by the political opposition headed by Eng. Juan Guaidó Márquez, in his capacity as President-in-Charge recognized by the international community, and to the regime headed by Nicolás Maduro Moros, that the political negotiation process demanded by the international community, be carried out on the following bases: a) Object of the negotiation: the Call for a National Constituent Assembly of an Original character; b) Participants: A negotiation between four (4) parties: A delegation of the International Community signatory of the Joint Declaration of June 25 (USA, the EU and Canada); a delegation of the political opposition sectors headed by Juan Guaidó Márquez as President-in-Charge recognized by the international community; a delegation of the Governing Council of the Citizens' Conference for the Constitutional and Democratic Restoration, as representation of the more than 6.4 million participants of the Popular Consultation of December 2020; and a delegation of the government sector headed by Nicolás Maduro; c) Points to be negotiated: 1) the designation of an Ad-Hoc Electoral Authority with the participation and support of the technical agencies of the International Community, solely for the election of the Constituent Citizens that will represent all Venezuelans in the National Constituent Assembly; and 2) The Bases Comiciales that will govern the election of the Constituents; d) Guarantees of the process: the parties shall establish the guarantees so that the agreements and commitments reached in the negotiation process are complied with;"
If there is a true desire to solve the serious crisis the country is going through in a peaceful, constitutional and electoral manner, that is the way to go. Otherwise, neither positions nor interests will matter. All those involved, including the International Community, will be giving the opportunity to the beginning of violence. This is valid but extremely costly for all...
Caracas, August 14, 2021
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