By Luis Manuel Aguana
As in a great chess board, the regime moved one of its pieces, the Office of the Comptroller General of the Republic, and decided the political disqualification of María Corina Machado (MCM) for 15 years. Legal opinions on whether this was legal or not, or the tears of clothes and the chest beating of her most fervent national and international followers are irrelevant. He did it, period, because they rule and they can do it, because if they have not yet found out, we are in a TYRANNY, and they decide who can and who cannot measure up to the regime in an "election". As I have mentioned before, maybe it was a good dose of "ubicatex" for those who still think that we are in a classic electoral carnival, where the one with the most votes wins. And unfortunately in today's Venezuela this is not the case.
They did not even wait for the formation of the new CNE to act against the primaries -that would take too long in a political game where every hour counts- although that does not mean new subsequent moves using their best piece, the Electoral Power, against any possibility of unifying an opposition around someone before the 2024 elections.
However, whether they like it or not, this move by the regime changed the political scenario and the possible decisions of its actors in the face of this new reality. We are facing a new political game. And if those actors think that they can continue making the same decisions after that move has taken place, they are thinking with a different organ of the brain, and have a very high probability of losing the game definitively.
Until now, the overwhelming advance of MCM's pre-candidacy in the primaries, took for granted her triumph to become the undisputed opposition candidate against the regime. All the other candidates put in a blender did not give the numbers against her. Now, after this, will anyone vote for MCM in a primary knowing that she will still not be able to compete with the regime in the elections? Was it because of her overwhelming numbers in the polls, or, on the contrary, because she managed to convince, even those who did not follow her before the primaries, that an electoral triumph against the regime was possible? Now that this possibility is fading away, will they still be willing to go to a primary?
The political disqualification of MCM does not prevent her from continuing on her way to the primaries and effectively becoming the winner of that process. BUT -and here the but is important- that process is to elect a candidate against the regime, although MCM stubbornly insists that the result is to define a new opposition leadership. And given this new condition imposed on her by the regime, the primary process will not produce the best candidate that reflects the preference of the majority of the Venezuelan opposition people, which in essence UNNATURALIZES the primary process itself.
In other words, the regime has succeeded, with the move against the MCM, to put garbage into the primary system, resulting in the primaries yielding not the best opposition candidate, but the best broken bat of the opposition.
Therefore, knowing this situation, the question to be asked by the official opposition parties, and even more importantly, by the Venezuelan opposition people, is whether continuing along the path of the primaries achieves the objective of putting the best candidate at the front, with a certain possibility of defeating the regime's candidate.
By balancing the game in its favor, the regime achieves two important things: 1) to make internationally credible a triumph of the regime against any broken bat of an atomized opposition coming out of the primaries; and 2) to increase considerably the electoral abstention for a process that we know will be fixed in favor of the regime, with a CNE that will be worse than when Tibisay Lucena was alive.
In view of the above, what should be the opposition's response to that? To take to the streets insisting on MCM so that with foreign aid -the only possible one- the regime agrees to measure itself against someone it has blocked its way? Did that work with the opposition to Daniel Ortega's tyranny in Nicaragua? Again, WE ARE IN A TYRANY. Never forget that reality. It would be a waste of valuable time necessary for a new strategy to be structured that can use that valuable resource of the street, but not out of an immediate emotional reaction from the gut to a foreseeable move of the regime, but as a well thought out action at the right time, aimed at winning this game definitively.
What the Venezuelan opposition people should be thinking is that the ultimate goal of this struggle is to depose the regime, no matter how much we may feel angry about the actions taken against anyone. And if they really believe that the mechanism to be used are those elections of 2024, regardless of the fact that there will be a clearly biased CNE, then the opposition candidate should no longer come from among those who are on the primary ballot, because according to the polls, the people had opted in favor of someone the regime decided to exclude, and that someone will no longer run in the elections.
Even if still winning the primaries, MCM will no longer be in the electoral race defined by the regime. And if it intends to continue on that path, the bet of the official opposition will continue to be for a "valid" candidate to the regime. That is the sad reality of the official opposition when they decided the electoral path with a tyranny. And I doubt very much that this will change no matter how much international pressure is demanded outside the country, because they still accepted the electoral path.
At this point a question should be arising: what if it is not a primary? A consensus? A consensus between opposition broken bats would yield nothing but a losing opposition candidate. That is why the presence of MCM in the primaries was very important for the Unitary Platform, and still continues to be so, even if disqualified. And an attempted consensus with a clear winning pre-candidate of that process would not be feasible. Result: deadlocked game. Knowing her trajectory, do you think that MCM would negotiate another candidate other than her and even less endorse her votes?
At this point, time is running fast in this new political game. The next move of the regime will come with the new CNE in office. If they wait until October to define an opposition candidate that will no longer be MCM, they will have lost precious time, very important to position another person that will unite the opposition sentiment, giving the regime the golden opportunity for that new CNE to advance the elections, catching the opposition with its pants down, only having in its hands a mediocre but valid candidate for the regime, product of those primaries.
If that is what they want, go ahead with the plan of insisting that she can only be MCM after the primaries. And all those pre-candidates, including her, should seriously evaluate, for whatever comes later, if what they really want is a free Venezuela, or their own interests and egos of becoming President of the Republic....
Caracas, July 1st, 2023
Blog: TIC’s & Derechos
Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email:
luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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