By Luis
Manuel Aguana
I usually take a few days in early January to write the first article of the year, but as time goes by, the political reality in Venezuela makes this increasingly difficult. And indeed, after the events of the early hours of January 3, Venezuela's political reality changed. Rather than analyzing the removal of Nicolás Maduro Moros and his wife Cilia Flores by US military forces, with the consequent attack on Venezuelan military installations to achieve that goal, I believe that Venezuelans should be more interested in what will happen next, and whether that event will effectively change the political state of affairs in the country.
Given the complexity of the events and their consequences in Venezuela, at the beginning of September last year I developed a simple theoretical model to understand and contextualize what has happened in Venezuela, which may be useful for what comes after the events of the early morning of January 3, 2026. I called the model Displacement-Transition-Refoundation (see Venezuela: Displacement, Transition, and Re-foundation, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/venezuela-displacement-transition-and.html).
I will use this model to analyze what happened, deliberately disregarding whether or not it contributes to the liberation of the country.
Was there really a DISPLACEMENT of the regime on January 3?
In order to answer that question properly, I will refer to what the opposition had to guarantee prior to generating the “extraction” matrix as a mechanism to resolve the displacement of Nicolás Maduro Moros' regime.
In September 2024, I indicated: The opposition narrative has convinced Venezuelans that the only way out of the regime is by force. This conviction on the part of political actors has us all waiting for Trump's marines, or bombs from ships, or an “extraction” commando, because that would end the suffering of the Venezuelan people... Opposition forces, in proposing a solution such as the one above, have an obligation in return to respond to the US, the country they are asking to take what we might call the path of “controlled violence,” with what could be called “a political plan.” This is, fundamentally, to answer what would happen when they do their part, to guarantee that they, the US, will not be the ones picking up the broken glass that such action would bring as a consequence.
Well, the US military arrived and removed Maduro and his wife, exactly four months later. The hours that followed the bombs and US helicopters over Fuerte Tiuna told us absolutely nothing about what would come next, because it was precisely at that moment that internal forces in favor of democratic change were supposed to take control of the country's government, closing the power vacuum left by the deposed ruler. But nothing happened. And nothing happened until we learned from the US president's statement to the world's press that Delcy Rodríguez would take over as the country's head of state. It's quite pathetic...
What else could happen if the above had not been foreseen? Only the corresponding succession of the president in absolute absence, as indicated in Article 233 of the Constitution, by the Vice Presidency of the Republic.
As I indicated when I defined the model: The displacement of the regime that exists in Venezuela CANNOT BE CARRIED OUT without first having a perfectly defined military command. This is not about saying “I told you so.” The only way Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU) and María Corina Machado (MCM) could have taken control of the country WITHOUT the US military remaining in Venezuela to support their government was if there were sufficient local military forces to guarantee their sustainability. Sadly, we saw that there were none on that day, nor was there the long-awaited collapse of the military to support the fall. In other words, the political and military opposition plan we expected after the extraction did not exist.
Nor was there any coordination between the US and the opposition led by the President-elect and MCM with that action, regardless of the fact that the operation was obviously secret on the part of the US government, which also demonstrated that government's disregard for what we Venezuelans consider our main bastion in the fight to recover our country's freedoms: the votes of June 28, 2024.
Consequently, to the question of whether or not there was a change of regime on January 3, we can clearly answer that there was not. Therefore, what is coming could hardly be called a transition, but rather the evolution of the regime to another state, which we still do not know will be more favorable than the previous one from the perspective of ordinary Venezuelans.
A TRANSITION that is not a transition
The regime in a post-Maduro succession remains a regime. President Donald Trump, in his January 3 press conference, reaffirmed the presidential succession mentioned in the previous point during the question and answer session, but with a fundamental addition: Trump affirms that he will run Venezuela:
“P: President, thank you. Are you saying that Secretary Hegseth y Rubio are going to be running Venezuela and will you be sending in US military troops to provide…?
DT: There will be a team that's working with the people of Venezuela to make sure that we have Venezuela, right? Because for us to just leave, who's going to take over? I mean there is nobody to take over. You have a vice president who's been appointed by Maduro and right now she's the vice president and she's I guess the president. She was sworn as president just a little while ago. She had a long conversation with Marco and she said we'll do whatever you need. Uh she I think she was quite gracious. But she really doesn't have a choice. We're going to have this done right. We're not going to just do this with Maduro then leave like everybody else. leave and say, you know, let it go to hell. If we just left, it has zero chance of ever coming back. We'll run it properly. We'll run it professionally. We'll have the greatest oil companies in the world go in and invest billions and billions of dollars and take out money, use that money in Venezuela. And the biggest beneficiary are going to be the people of Venezuela…” (see CNN, Trump says 'We're going to run' Venezuela, in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pA48gVurn4A&t=482s).
I didn't know whether to rejoice or cry when I heard that statement, which would only have been possible if they had actually invaded and occupied the country militarily, with the consequent support for the legitimate government of Edmundo González Urrutia, which is clearly endorsed by the votes of June 28, 2024. That is what the US did in Panama in 1989 when it installed President-elect Guillermo Endara as President of the Republic, removing Manuel Noriega for drug trafficking. Same situation, different execution.
To begin with, if Maduro's successor had said, “we'll do whatever you need” the first request imposed should have been “release all political prisoners from Venezuelan prisons,” and not doing so in good faith means that we are still in the displacement stage. However, this may still be the first act of cooperation that President Trump can request from those who now govern in Miraflores for the benefit of Venezuelans, as he claims.
Delcy Rodríguez's first statement after Maduro's removal was not exactly to collaborate with Trump in a new phase, but rather to demand proof of life for Nicolás Maduro Moros and reaffirm that he is the only president of Venezuela: “We demand the immediate release of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, the only president of Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro” (see CNN en Español, Venezuela's vice president demands “the immediate release” of Maduro and his wife). in https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2026/01/03/venezuela/delcy-rodriguez-vicepresidenta-exige-liberacion-maduro-esposa-venezuela-orix).
If Trump's statement is understood as a ploy to expose Rodríguez's betrayal and cause divisions within the regime, only the actions of this new presidency will corroborate such a claim. Therefore, I find it very difficult to imagine a Delcy Rodríguez government acting as a puppet of the US, doing whatever they want. On the contrary, I am convinced that she will try, for her own safety, to show her supporters that she can be as bad as or worse than Nicolás Maduro Moros.
And if that is the excuse President Trump is looking for to intervene militarily in Venezuela and administer it as he announced, it will give the regime the perfect argument to prove right those who claim that Venezuela could become Libya or Iraq, with the underground support of China, Russia, and Iran.
And what would be the new role of President-Elect EGU and MCM in this new scenario?
President Trump did not assign any role to EGU, whom he did not even mention, and in fact dismissed the role of MCM at this very important moment, stating: “I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader. She doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country. She's a very nice woman, but she doesn't have the respect….” (see CNN, Trump says 'We're going to run' Venezuela, in https://youtu.be/pA48gVurn4A?t=575). By using the word “respect,” Trump meant in his language that he did not have the necessary support of the Armed Forces, not of the people. And that is very sad because the struggle is precisely to restore the value of democracy, where the will of the people is the only support that should be needed.
How can this be interpreted? The US made a decision over the heads of the opposition led by MCM. That was evident, which says a lot about how the US president pragmatically views the problem in Venezuela. In accordance with that “realpolitik” decision, it was the lack of real strength that sidelined the opposition leadership, faced with the painful reality of being unable to conceive of a political-military plan that could sustain them in the leadership of the country, after removing the main subject of this story, regardless of the excuse they used to carry out such action.
Will a “TRANSITION” led by Delcy Rodríguez be viable?
Everything indicates that the regime will continue with “business as usual,” because it is NOT A TRANSITION BUT CONTINUITY, no matter how many times Trump repeats it. Venezuelans may or may not have an opinion when they see Nicolás Maduro Moros and Cilia Flores chained in front of a court in the US, but that, at least for this writer, does not solve the underlying problem, especially if the genuine representation of the will of the Venezuelan people and their natural leaders, expressed in elections, is left aside.
Nicolás Maduro Moros and his executive team, including his vice president and the rest of the current Venezuelan state authorities, ARE ILLEGITIMATE; therefore, the new government of Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez is also illegitimate. That has not changed with Maduro's broadcasts. Therefore, any decision made by his government, such as elections that should be called within 30 days, according to the absolute constitutional absence of the President of the Republic, comes with the stamp of illegitimacy from the outset. President Donald Trump and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, should be aware of this.
The continuity of Maduro's regime, now in the hands of his successor, does not make the state of affairs in Venezuela any more viable. The first reaction of the people to Maduro's removal was to think about food shortages, depleted inventories in pharmacies, grocery stores, and supermarkets, not to mention the street violence of his supporters, which has resulted in sporadic looting throughout the country. Will there be more confidence and economic openness with a new leader in Miraflores who follows the same policies as Maduro? Will there be more investment with Delcy Rodríguez? Will the currency stop devaluing? Will the quality of life of Venezuelans improve with the same people who were there before and who ruled with Maduro? Ask yourselves these questions and you will have your answer. Venezuela's problem is structural, and fixing it begins with a fundamental change in the political system.
REFOUNDING: Let the people decide!
f Donald Trump's administration truly wishes to help Venezuelans restore freedom and institutions in Venezuela, it must call on all Venezuelans to refound the state. This already exists in our Constitution in Articles 347, 348, and 349, not to mention Article 5, which states that sovereignty resides in the Venezuelan people.
As it appears that the US government is considering having Delcy Rodríguez call new elections—with the same completely illegitimate and corrupt state apparatus—and having MCM and the rest of the political leadership compete there “to restore democracy,” with the presence of Jorge Rodríguez, brother of the current president and main electoral architect of Hugo Chávez Frías and Nicolás Maduro Moros's permanence in power for more than 27 years.
Why not try a different formula, one that has not been applied before, by convening the Constituent Assembly to rebuild the Venezuelan state from its foundations? Why not establish an Electoral Tribunal independent of the CNE solely for this purpose, administered by qualified and independent specialists from around the world, and arbitrated by the US so that the result is not in the hands or under the control of Delcy Rodríguez's government?
The elected constituent assembly, constituted as the National Constituent Assembly, would decide on a transitional government and then, with a new constitution, call for fair, free, and verifiable elections in which all candidates would compete on equal terms.
We have been proposing this formula for years from the Original National Constituent Alliance (ANCO), modifying it according to political circumstances; and more recently on three consecutive dates, with different communiqués: October 6, 2025 (see below), November 17, 2025 (see in Spanish https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2025/11/comunicado-anco-propuesta-para-una.html) and December 23, 2025 (see in Spanish https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2025/12/comunicado-anco-propuesta-de-solucion.html), by proposing the Constituent solution as an immediate step following the materialization of the unforeseen situation that has just occurred, with the absolute absence of Nicolás Maduro Moros in the exercise of the Presidency of the Republic:
“As exceptional witnesses to the current political situation in the country, we believe that citizens must play a truly leading role in the event of any unforeseen or other event that disrupts the current institutional state of the country. In this regard, faithful to our republican tradition, to freedom and peace, ANCO PROPOSES that, in order to address the crisis, a National Transitional Government and Representative Democratic Reinstitutionalization be formed, in accordance with and in compliance with Articles 5, 62, 70, 326, 333, 347, and 350 of the Constitution, composed of Venezuelans with impeccable public track records and expertise, with representation from the Armed Forces, recognizing the will expressed by the popular sovereignty on July 28, 2024, and which must be ratified by the Venezuelan people, and legitimized in its origin and performance by a Constituent Convention that provides legitimacy to the transition process and drafts a new, modern, and urgent Social Pact in accordance with Article 347 of the Constitution. The heart of this transition lies in laying the foundations for undertaking the great task of rebuilding Venezuela, under the sovereign accompaniment and support of the people" (see in Spanish ANCO Communiqué to the Venezuelan Nation, October 6, 2025, at https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2025/10/comunicado-la-alianza-nacional.html).
It is not too late to embark on this path and propose it to the US government as a peaceful solution for Venezuela, especially since President Trump has never indicated that he would recognize the Venezuelan regime headed by Delcy Rodríguez after the removal of Nicolás Maduro Moros, nor has he openly dismissed the votes of Venezuelans on July 28, 2024, as a solution to the Venezuelan crisis.
I hope that this situation will give us the opportunity for the opposition to agree with our proposal that only the Venezuelan people have the decision in their hands and can change the course of events, no matter how much force the US requests to maintain the country's governability. During the constituent period, the Armed Forces will be aligned with the decision of the Venezuelan people's representatives, because they would have a place in the National Transitional Government and Representative Democratic Reinstitutionalization proposed by ANCO. No one has more to gain than MCM at this moment in demanding that the people decide...
Caracas, January 5, 2026
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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