It was not possible to write anything until the events scheduled for January 9 and 10 took place. I responsibly refrained from guessing what the opposition would do beyond indicating the perception in which we Venezuelans find ourselves of a process of successive approximations, where step by step progress would be made towards the implosion of the regime, with a final iteration that would give us definitive freedom. This process of approximations does not have a specific time or the number of necessary iterations, but in the process, intermediate results are given that give unmistakable signs that indicate that we are approaching the end of the process (see Successive Approximations 2024-2025, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/successive-approximations-2024-2025.html).
Perhaps it would have been more in line with reality -so that the common Venezuelans would not be disappointed with what happened on January 10- for the opposition to send that message, or any other similar and understandable one, instead of assuring at all costs that “Edmundo will be sworn in on January 10”, because if this did not take place, it was clear to foresee after 25 years of knowing tyranny, that the experience would end in the unforgettable “humanitarian aid enters if or if to Venezuela” of 2019, with the consequent feeling of “failure” in which some think it ended that day.
The President Elect, Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU), would not be sworn in in Venezuela while the regime was in office, since that would imply a previous operation of substitution of Maduro by force, something that perhaps many Venezuelans -especially the regime- expected to happen, as part of the opposition strategy for the inauguration of EGU as president. But that did not happen, and as a consequence, EGU did not enter the country. Hence, the only thing the regime lacked was the decree of suspension of constitutional guarantees, by militarizing and closing the borders, as well as the air space, although the actions implied in the decree were applied de facto, as could have been foreseen.
Despite what some may believe, on both days, January 9 and 10, the actions undertaken by the opposition led by María Corina Machado (MCM), were definitely successful, since the process of successive approximations towards freedom that I have described, produced very valuable intermediate results for our struggle in the very short term. Such is the case of the final recognition by the US and its President Elect, Donald Trump, of EGU as President Elect of the Venezuelans, and the communiqué of its State Department, further encircling the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros, which as of January 10 becomes an international pariah, making official once and for all and for all the world, the international illegitimacy of Nicolás Maduro Moros:
“Today, Nicolás Maduro held an illegitimate presidential inauguration in Venezuela in a desperate attempt to seize power. The Venezuelan people and world know the truth – Maduro clearly lost the 2024 presidential election and has no right to claim the presidency. The United States rejects the National Electoral Council’s fraudulent announcement that Maduro won the presidential election and does not recognize Nicolás Maduro as the president of Venezuela. President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia should be sworn in, and the democratic transition should begin. We stand ready to support a return to democracy in Venezuela” (see U.S. State Department Press Release, Condemning Nicolás Maduro’s Illegitimate Attempt to Seize Power in Venezuela and Announcing New Actions Against Maduro and His Representatives and to Support the Venezuelan People, in https://www.state.gov/office-of-the-spokesperson/releases/2025/01/condemning-nicolas-maduros-illegitimate-attempt-to-seize-power-in-venezuela-and-announcing-new-actions-against-maduro-and-his-representatives-and-to-support-the-venezuelan-people?s=03) (our highlighted).
But just as important as the recognition of EGU as President Elect of Venezuela, was the rejection by the civilized world of the illegitimate inauguration of Nicolás Maduro Moros on January 10, as expressed by the G7 countries on the same day, in a statement issued by the U.S. State Department:
“We, the G7 foreign ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America and the High Representative of the European Union, denounce the lack of democratic legitimacy of today’s purported inauguration of Nicolas Maduro as president of Venezuela. We reject Maduro’s continued and repressive grasp at power at the expense of the Venezuelan people, who voted for change peacefully and in large numbers on July 28, 2024, according to independent observers and publicly available electoral records.” (see U.S. State Department Press Release, G7 Denounces the Lack of Democratic Legitimacy of Today’s Presidential Inauguration in Venezuela, in https://www.state.gov/office-of-the-spokesperson/releases/2025/01/g7-denounces-the-lack-of-democratic-legitimacy-of-todays-presidential-inauguration-in-venezuela).
In short, there is no serious country on the planet that endorses those who seized power in Venezuela, overriding the will of the people. This is the great achievement of Venezuelans and their current opposition leadership headed by MCM, which we must value in all that it implies. The regime and all those involved in sustaining it cannot expect to get away with it in the long run.
Cuba, Nicaragua and the rest of the tyrannies that have not yet been extinguished, and that had their origin and duration in a world that has irremediably changed, and that no longer tolerates, as in the past, to relate with them, but that do not have the geopolitical and economic importance of Venezuela, are far from being sustained. This complex interrelation of variables will have no other result than the expulsion of tyranny.
And I am
not the only one who believes that. Important international analyses point in
the same direction, and indicate the growing weakness of the Maduro regime to
hold on to power, after the fall of Bashar al-Asad's regime in Syria.
“Unlike the Cold War era, when dictatorships were united by a common ideology, today’s autocrats share only a common enemy — the global international rules-based order that would put a halt to their criminal, repression-fueled operations. The brutal Maduro regime, despite its brazen election steal last summer and its vicious crackdown against opposition, is weaker than ever.”… “Maduro’s role involved harboring Hezbollah training cells deep inside Venezuela and providing safe transport of drugs and cash via Syria, to fund Hezbollah. In return, Maduro enjoyed robust Iranian security support and weapons. Without Damascus, the crucial Iran-Syria-Caracas transport corridor, Maduro’s leverage with Iran is diminished. And Iran, weakened by its war with Israel and in retreat to reassess military priorities, is unlikely to provide military cover for Venezuela. Putin’s abandonment of Syria is also striking. Russia has been a crucial patron to Venezuela for several decades, providing it with military funding. A significant portion of the funds was dedicated to maintaining the privileges of Venezuela’s military elite. Russian intelligence and disinformation technology have also served as an important weapon to harass, obfuscate, quell and track Maduro’s opposition” (see The Hill, 01/09/25, “Venezuela’s Maduro could be the next dictator to fall”, in https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5071060-syria-fall-dictatorships/).
The only possible recommendation at this point after January 10 is to remain vigilant and on your toes, because anything can happen. Contrary to what many people think, this will not be a long wait, it could not be. Venezuela will recover its freedom because this process of successive approximations, which has already begun, became unstoppable, accelerating strongly with what happened on January 10, and the regime knows it. They know it so much that the swearing-in of Maduro seemed like a wake, not the successful culmination of a triumphant election, to the point that at the end of the “express” swearing-in ceremony they ran to hide.
They do not know, like most Venezuelans, where and when the definitive actions that will lead them to abandon power will come from, because distrust is the order of the day. They do not know who will be “the traitor” who will collect his share of the substantial reward updated by the US. And that in itself contributes even more to their instability. No one can govern a country under these conditions “without dying in the attempt”. If not on January 10, it will be soon. For us, it is only a matter of patience and elementary logic...
Caracas, January 12, 2025
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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