By Luis Manuel Aguana
Every news report that comes in is more
disturbing than the other. First the possibility of a new crisis of a global
dimension with Iranian ships full of gasoline heading for Venezuela, without
knowing whether they will be stopped or not by the American warships. If they
are detained it is bad because of what it means in the scaling up of this
conflict; and if they are not detained it is worse because it would prolong the
torture of the Venezuelans, since that gasoline would not be for the people but
for the continuity of the regime. Then, the departure of the country without
warning and without protest from the private TV giant, DirecTV, which leaves an
entire population without entertainment, without food, without gas, without
light, without water, and terrified by the ever-increasing possibility of
contagion from a pandemic that we in no way believe the regime is in a position
to control, much less combat.
All this and many other things are being
presented to generate anxiety and frustration in Venezuelans. And even more so
when we do not see any response from those who promised in January 2016 to
resolve the crisis in six months. We are close to five long years of a National
Assembly that is dying by the wayside every day, without giving us the answers
that were promised to the country in 2015. Every day we see closer the
"solution" that Henry Ramos Allup and his G4 give us of running again
in a parliamentary election with Nicolas Maduro in power, and getting 5 more
years of the same or worse, with the same criminal broken bats that have
enriched themselves in the opposition. That is what we Venezuelan opponents
achieved by electing by a majority the same old deputies - plus other unknown
ones - from those four parties, PJ, AD, VP and UNT, as the drivers of this
tragedy that the official Venezuelan opposition is named after.
Now, if we put this in context with what is
happening in the United States, the result would be to cry on a sidewalk. A
Donald Trump fighting for re-election that looks increasingly compromised as
the COVID-19 gains ground in the middle of an economy that is contracting under
the effects of a lengthening quarantine. Major U.S. media outlets are saying
things like this: “A public health
emergency with no end in sight and free-falling economy aren't ideal conditions
for a leader to win re-election..” (see Signal, The Gzero Newletter, Trump’s
2020 play: blame China and the governors,
in https://www.gzeromedia.com/trumps-2020-play-blame-china-and-the-governors).
Indeed, President Trump, the only president
who has taken concrete steps to solve Venezuela's problem, is finding himself
having to put his domestic problems first rather than embark on a rescue
operation for Venezuela that would put his already committed re-election at
real risk. Right now, Venezuela represents Trump's last priority. Those
priorities may change but definitely after the U.S. elections in November.
Juan Guaidó as President-in-Charge has lost
many windows of opportunity for more than a year, by refusing to assume the
leadership of the State and take over the legitimate power granted to him by
the Constitution on January 23, 2019. At this time, Guaidó represents a
handicap to the official opposition's plans to continue negotiating with the
regime for elections in December, in light of all that a failed military
operation with mercenaries meant, which was persecuted by the regime and
condemned by the international community.
At this moment I would not be surprised if
the G4 leadership without VP is negotiating Juan Guaidó's head with the regime.
They'd both be better off taking Guaidó out of the equation. And maybe that's
why the PJ deputies' travel to the United States are supporting a new
opposition representation and the surprising reappearance of Capriles with
aspirations of a new leadership, although this has been furiously denied by the
yellow awning (see in Spanish, Bloomberg: Diputados piden bajo anonimato a EEUU
reemplazar a Guaidó, en http://www.laverdad.com/politica/167171-bloomberg-diputados-anonimato-eeuu-reemplazar-guaido.html and PJ negó que haya pedido a EEUU el reemplazo de Guaido como
Presidente Encargado, en https://runrun.es/noticias/408068/pj-nego-que-haya-pedido-a-eeuu-el-reemplazo-de-guaido-como-presidente-encargado/).
Unless something transcendental and
unexpected happens in the country's political situation, we are going live,
like Titanic to the iceberg, towards an electoral process in December, as
announced by official spokespersons, with Maduro in power. The new CNE has yet
to reach an agreement. However, the only thing that is saving us is the
persistent refusal of the international community, with the United States at
the head, to recognize any election with the regime in Miraflores.
But time passes and nothing happens in the
country, aggravating the tragic picture of Venezuelans, and deteriorating
Trump's situation. And that is what both the regime and its conspiring
opposition are playing at, forcing us to say "well, what else are we going
to do? We will have to go again to vote for the opposition in December, to see
if things improve this time. And that is what these people are playing at. The
only thing missing from that is the blessing of the White House. And as I see
it, the famous U.S. State Department's Democratic Transition Framework for
Venezuela, dated March 31, 2020 (ver Global Public Affairs, US Departament of
State, Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela, in https://www.state.gov/democratic-transition-framework-for-venezuela/) gives them the conditions for that. The White House wants both actors
to "agree" on a transition. And indeed they are already
"agreeing" to go together to a parliamentary election, and they can
well argue that this is the prelude to a "transition agreement" such
as the one the White House wants. And Trump is not in the best position to say
no to that. On the contrary, he will think that it would give him time to get
out of the fire he has in his country with the economy and the COVID-19.
If the Trump Administration agrees to these
parliamentary elections, of course taking care of the appearances of a minimum
of international observation and guarantees for the opposition with a new CNE
(which we all know how it will be because it has already been overtaken by
Stalin Gonzalez with the regime's deputies who left their posts in the National
Assembly to go to the Constituent Assembly), the big question is: What will
those of us who have vomited to death with every marraige of the official
opposition do to live with the regime? Will we make a fuss saying that this is
unacceptable? Refuse to participate? If they accept it on the outside, whatever
comes out of those elections will be legitimate in the eyes of the world.
If the International Community, with the
United States at the head, gives its blessing to this parliamentary election as
a consequence of its political situation, the decent people left in this
country cannot stand by and wait to see a repetition of these 5 years of
opposition parliamentary ignominy. Will we allow the votes to go back to the
Henry Ramos Allup, the Juan Guaidó, the Stalin González, the Julio Borges, the
Sergio Vergara, the Adolfo Superlano, the Luis Parra, the José Brito and stop
counting by the endless list, who have misused the parliamentary representation
we Venezuelans have given them to benefit in any conceivable way? It seems to
me that, as Venezuelans, we would be making a very serious mistake.
I almost vomit again if those same people
return to the National Assembly with the legitimate representation of
Venezuelans because "there was no one else to vote for”. And that's what
the official opposition parties are betting on. And I believe that it is by
disputing this legitimate representation of the citizens that those who make
the transcendental decisions of the official opposition in Venezuela could be
displaced from these positions, if the International Community puts us on the
precipice of returning to the ballot box with the regime of Nicolás Maduro, in
the name of an unquestionable political "coexistence" and
international balance. And that is what we have around the corner "if
nothing happens", as it seems to be with the conchupant opposition.
And if this is to be extended because of the
regime's criminal endless quarantine with COVID-19, because of the inaction of
a wimp that unfortunately fell on us constitutionally, because of the serious
political situation of our main international ally, then let's handle things
differently, by putting up a new fight in the same field of the official
opposition and the regime: with the votes. Let's build a coalition of
Venezuelans with a proven track record as citizens who represent the people's
feelings and who dispute the parliamentary representation of the regime and of
a devalued and infamous official opposition. Many will say that I am getting
ahead of myself before the events unfold, but I am really tired of seeing the
hole in the distance again and again, and falling into it again and again.
Think of that likely scenario as the next episode of this endless horror novel.
All of you who will have to step forward to challenge the electoral proposal of
that official opposition sold out for the new legislature of 2021 are warned at
the bat, because it seems that it will be you, with the legitimate popular
representation in your hands, who will be called upon to take this nightmare
away from us…
Caracas, May 22, 2020
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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