By Luis Manuel Aguana
I hope that this is the first of many notes
in which I talk about the future, about Venezuela without all this garbage that
has accompanied us politically - on both sides - and that has intoxicated us to
the point of not allowing us to think clearly. I think it is time to get out of
the picture we see at first sight every day and think beyond it. We Venezuelans
must - even if it is difficult for us - start thinking about the post-Maduro
and its thousand thieves scenarios. I give as a fact that Maduro is out of
power in such a close future that we will not even have time to celebrate the
gigantic problem that will remain in our hands.
Sources indicate that there are already
military personnel asking "What are
the conditions for the delivery? Can it be picked up in Venezuelan territory?
Where on the border is more convenient? Could we offer logistics for the
extraction operation? How is the claim made for the payment of the reward"
as journalist Casto Ocando notes in a recent article (see in Spanish Primer
Informe, Militares venezolanos negocian la captura de Nicolás Maduro, en https://primerinforme.com/index.php/2020/04/13/fuentes-militares-venezolanos-negocian-la-captura-de-nicolas-maduro/) realizes that that shouldn't be the problem we're thinking about
anymore. At this point, I really don't care what color coat they put Maduro,
Padrino, Diosdado, Maikel or Tarek El Aissami in, or whether they are delivered
dead or alive, although the "Wanted" signs from the U.S. Department
of Justice did not indicate that condition for paying the reward. However, it
seems that those military officials in the Ocando note are not asking that
either. Let's rather think from now on in whose hands the power in Venezuela
will remain.
At this very moment there are already
political factors of the regime itself and its official opposition, mixed with
what has been called "light chavism", plotting how they will look
after Maduro and the rest of their principals have been "extracted"
and have become a problem to continue with business in the shadow of power. The
negotiations can no longer be done "as usual" because everything is
paralyzed waiting for these characters to come out "packed". And that
is where we must focus our attention from now on.
At the
time of Maduro rejecting outright the offer of the United States called “Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela” and make
that 5-member Council of State suggested in point No. 5 (see official proposal at https://www.state.gov/democratic-transition-framework-for-venezuela/), this is an overly generous
offer, as Mauricio Claver-Carone, US National Security Advisor, pointed out,
and once the wanted characters have disappeared from the political map, who do
you think the Americans will recognize as the new President of Venezuela? Yes, you
read my mind: Juan Guaidó and his G4 associates.
The Americans will not look the other way as this recognition has been
held up reluctantly for more than a year. That's why Guaidó should be thinking
right now about how it will accompany itself in this new circumstance so that
its permanence in power is sustainable, and especially with which civilians and
military.
However, this transition is designed to be short-lived since the
Transition Statute was approved in February 2019. None of the G4 parties likes
the idea of a long transition (read many months) and neither does the
International Community. They want it to be short. However, the instability that
will accompany the departure of Maduro and his criminals with armed factors
throughout the country will delay the plan to hold elections immediately.
And it is here where Venezuelans have a lot to say. How long should that
transition last and what should be done during it to guarantee political
stability and the re-institutionalization of Venezuela? Perhaps it is
unrealistic to think of a transition long enough to solve the whole problem of
mass destruction caused by Castro-Chavismo-Madurismo, but there is something
key here that we Venezuelans are letting go in that transition: it is
fundamental for the political sectors. prevail that this transition is very
short for its survival, and elections are held - with the same structures of
the electoral power of Castro-Chavismo-Madurismo to control elections - that
put in power those who will lead the ship in the next 6 years, and with the
same licenses without citizen control that Chávez and Maduro had. But ... is
that what we want? Definitely not. Be careful with that!
Many of them want to return to the arrangements so well known by
Venezuelans in the 90s, such as the distribution of the country and big
business, without that dripping to the people. That justified the insurgency of
a military man like Chavez, and the people followed him fed up with the
political situation, without even imagining that it would be extraordinarily
worse. For that, they need political stability and a new
post-Chavismo-Madurismo "status quo" as soon as possible.
It is necessary then to do the engineering that urgently establishes the
bases that will make that not happen and at the same time that what results
will not allow the return of what is dying right now. We require immediate
controls on the President of the Republic, to diminish as soon as possible his
powers over the lives of Venezuelans. Give immediate representation to the
federal states in parliament. This figure is called the Senate, giving it the
control over the Armed Forces and the final approval of the laws, without mention
a new way of conceiving the distribution of the oil income to the Venezuelans
and a new conception of our main industry in the context of a new energy
reality in the world.
All regions, municipalities and federated states must have in this new stage
the power administered by the citizens, not a centralist and all-powerful
state. What has been described is only a glimpse of what we must do, and it is
not a Government Program, but rather a reworking of the framework of action of
the factors in a new Venezuela. Government programs will be written once this
structuring has been done. It is to conceive and build the new building where
the politics of the new generations will live and which will be managed by
those who will succeed us. This is what we call in ANCO the Big
Change.
If we cannot make these changes in the transition that will inevitably
come, we have to get a commitment from Civil Society not to allow political
factors to delay it until they feel like it. The window of opportunity that is
open to us to make this transition will be very short before the same
protagonists who were responsible for the arrival of Chavez, and other younger
ones who were unfortunately recruited later, return and become mineralised in
power. If these changes do not take place in this opportunity window, it is
unlikely that Venezuela will be stable for future generations and that
socialist obscurantism will return.
I end
this note with the closing of ANCO's press release of March 28, 2020, The
Big Change (http://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2020/03/comunicado-anco-todos-los-venezolanos.html) that encloses the
substance of this approach:
"We
have to rethink Venezuela. We have to REINVENT DEMOCRACY. We have to REFOUND
the COUNTRY. It is necessary to
establish a new political, administrative and constitutional model of
governance that recovers confidence in the country. We have made changes in
these recent governments so that everything remains the same or worse. The
magnitudes of the crises are so great and their energy is so strong that they
end up breaking all the old paradigms to give way to a new one. But also the
power structures of those who should continue create other offers and illusions
to sustain their original paradigm that commits us to fight with determination
to prevent it".
It's now or
never...
Caracas, April 14, 2020
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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