By Luis Manuel Aguana
If there
is one thing on which all Venezuelans agree today is that after April 30th
things are not the same. As Tiby Lucena would say, they are irreversible, like
the results where the opposition always lost after turning them over in the
CNE. I never knew it was more irreversible, whether the results or the way they
cheated the will of Venezuelans.
When Juan
Guaidó and Leopoldo López appeared in that video accompanied by a group of
soldiers in a place that did not turn out to be the La Carlota Air Base, as had
been announced, but the bridge of the Altamira distributor on the Francisco
Fajardo Highway in Caracas, I imagine that they would know that they were
taking an irreversible step, that they could not turn back, and that from there
things with the regime would not be the same. Moreover, if they were going out
that way, it was because the Cessation of Usurpation had already been resolved,
because after the massive distribution of that video at 5:30am, I was hoping
that half an hour later the flight of Maduro and his main accomplices would be
announced in a Sacred Cow from Maiquetía or any other airport in the country.
But no,
what they threw was a bet! A bet that we later learned from U.S. officials that
it had been negotiated with three of the main commanders of madurism in the
regime (see in Spanish, EEUU reveló que
altos mando chavistas negociaron con Juan Guaidó la salida de Nicolás Maduro,
en https://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2019/04/30/john-bolton-vladimir-padrino-maikel-moreno-y-hernandez-dala-creen-que-maduro-debe-dejar-el-poder/) waiting for those
criminals to "keep their word," removing the usurper. I put it in
inverted commas because you have to be very credulous -not to say very pendejo-
to expose life in that way, betting that those scoundrels would not send them a
battalion to annihilate them on that bridge, at that time when there was no one
but them in the place. They would have done it and it would have been catalogued
as a suffocated military uprising, and Guaidó and López would have swelled,
along with the few soldiers who were there, the murder statistics of the regime
of Nicolás Maduro Moros.
As
expected for anyone, the criminals did not keep their word. But Guaidó and López
are not just any person, they are the main heads of the Venezuelan opposition
movement. The President in Charge and the main political leader of his party
candidly trusted Vladimir Padrino, Iván Hernández Dalá and Maikel Moreno, the
Holy Trinity of the repression of the tyranny of Nicolás Maduro Moros. And
that's not just any bullshit. I think it was too monumental a mistake to let it
go unnoticed.
Anyone
who has approached the work of Ramón J. Velásquez or Enrique Tejera París, or
better yet, met them personally - something that was not very complicated in
the Venezuelan political world - could have learned a little about the
political history behind the military uprisings that have taken place in
Venezuela. Without having a manual on how to make a movement like that, it
could be deduced from that minimal knowledge that if you throw a stop of that
type and go out in public to say that the donkey is black it is because you
have the hairs in your hand. The case of Chávez in 1992 is classic. We didn't
know who was responsible for the uprising until they subdued the ringleader -
at that moment the unknown Hugo Chávez - to order those who had not surrendered
at the Maracay Garrison, and were still pouring lead, to lay down their arms.
In other words, military control of the country is achieved first and then
control of the government. Chávez not having military control of the country
was subdued and imprisoned.
When we
have said that only the terms of their exit should be negotiated with Maduro
and his henchmen, it is not understood that it is in order to negotiate with
them the shared control of the country or a co-government with the
castro-chavismo-madurismo, but because they have been defeated militarily, and
to avoid further bloodshed, only then are the terms of their surrender
discussed with them. That is what happened with Chávez on 4F-1992. In other
cases in history, such as in 1958, the military was already in control of the
country when people took to the streets. It's not that the people had to be on the
street for them to take control of the situation. It is not the people who
provoke the departure of a regime, it is the pure and simple force of arms. And
if you don't have such a force, you can't evict anyone from power, even if they
have it in usurpation in an illegal way. A government does not fall with the
"promise" that someone gave to change sides, no matter how high it is
in the pyramid of the regime. It is because you already moved troops having the
certainty of having greater firepower than your enemy and achieve their
surrender, then you make the corresponding announcements. That's where the
"bet" is.
I
mistakenly thought that this primary manual of military uprisings in Venezuela
was the knowledge of the official opposition leadership, and I am powerfully
struck by the fact that having access to all the professional knowledge that
exists at their disposal in this matter, it has not been used. That says a
great deal about those who intend to lead the country in the future. And it is
clear that after the failure of the attempt, all military personnel involved in
the process will immediately be identified and neutralized by the regime
-understanding what that means in this tyranny- as it happened after the
Galactico's brand new return on April 13, 2002. What happened on April 30, 2019
cannot be repeated with the same military protagonists, including Padrino and
Hernández Dalá, because that action, as we said at the beginning, is as
irreversible as the electoral results of Tiby Lucena.
But a
very important aspect of this complex plot is the statements of Elliott Abrams,
also reported in the same news item: "For
his part, Elliott Abrams, the U.S. special envoy for Venezuela, pointed out on
Tuesday that Trump's government did not take part in these negotiations between
members of the Venezuelan opposition and Minister Vladimir Padrino to overthrow
Maduro. "The U.S. was not part of those negotiations, the negotiations
were between Venezuelans," Abrams told a group of journalists at the State
Department. "In the last month or two, there have been some interesting
negotiations between Venezuelans, within the regime and outside about a return
to the Constitution, Abrams explained”.
The
United States is not and should not be in charge of any strategy that the official
opposition chooses to leave the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros. However, it was
difficult for them to agree with this, but I imagine they would say something
like: "they are black and they understand each other," to the point
that they immediately went ahead to turn what was clearly a failure into an
opportunity to undermine the bases of trust among the members of Maduro's high
government. According to connoisseurs, it is highly unusual for a White House
security adviser to make such direct statements about those issues that fall
within the purview of the State Department. It is possible that the future of
that Trinidad denounced by Bolton will be very uncertain in the next few hours.
And
Guaidó is saved from the regime's immediate response - although that remains to
be seen - because the United States, even though it is aware of this movement
and of the way in which the facts were handled, still continues to support
-thanks to God- the hope of change of the Venezuelan people, still embodied by
President Encargado Juan Guaidó. However, after an eye pulled out, Saint Lucia
is no good. What they did has no turning back and there is no other choice but
to move forward. The regime knows that it is not the official opposition that
it has to fear after this, it is the U.S. government. And that makes it
extremely weak but at the same time very dangerous for us.
"The
legitimate TSJ has asked the international community to apply R2P and stop the
genocide in Venezuela through an international military coalition on a peace
mission" (see tuit
of @TSJ_Legitimo, in https://twitter.com/TSJ_Legitimo/status/1123997735890370568). This is precisely
because the regime will from now on increase the commission of crimes against
humanity against opponents in Venezuela. Those failures have those
consequences. This position of immediately applying R2P in Venezuela has been fully
supported by OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro in a meeting with the President
of the Legitimate TSJ in exile, Dr. Miguel Ángel Martín. (see tuit in Spanish
from @Almagro_OEA2015, in https://twitter.com/Almagro_OEA2015/status/1124357267212705794).
The
legitimate Supreme Court of Justice has maintained a very serious position
after this new failure in the "breakdown of the Armed Forces"
attempted by the official opposition and perhaps it can be demonstrated to the
US government and the international community in general, that if there are
serious Venezuelan politicians who can assume state responsibilities such as
those needed to lead the country, dismissing once and for all any interlocution
unprepared to face this dark hour in Venezuela. Too many people have already
died as a result of this improvisation. If it is already very serious to accept
that the problem surpassed the local capacities to solve it, imagine if the
driving is also not up to the circumstance. The time has come for the
Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in Venezuela.
Caracas,
May 6, 2019
Email:
luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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