By Luis Manuel Aguana
Events are
going very fast in Venezuela. On January 10, Congressman Juan Guaidó, by not assuming
in a firm manner the First Magistracy as literally ordered by the Constitution
in its Article 233, left a bitter and disappointing taste in Venezuelans. I
reflected that disappointment by affirming that it was not convenient for us to
have that representation that did not assume its historical obligation (see https://twitter.com/laguana/status/1083439128623136770).
However, in
less than 24 hours the timid tone changed. Perhaps because of pressure from
Venezuelans for not having made the announcement and the decisive support of
the International Community to the National Assembly. This note had a
completely different orientation when I initiated it, and that I changed after
hearing the speech of the President of the National Assembly, during the Open
Cabildo convened for January 11, 2018, where Deputy Guaidó, and now President
In Charge expressed: "I adhere to
Articles 333, 350 and 233 to achieve the cessation of usurpation and call free
elections with the union of the people, FAN and international community"
(see Official Note of the National Assembly, in http://www.asambleanacional.gob.ve/noticias/_juan-guaido-me-apego-a-los-articulos-333-350-y-233).
Immediately the International
Community closed ranks in support of the expected decision, beginning with OAS
Secretary General Luis Almagro: "We
salute the assumption of @jguaido as Acting President of #Venezuela pursuant to
Article 233 of the Political Constitution. He has our support, that of the
international community and of the People of Venezuela” (see Luis Almagro's
tuit in, https://twitter.com/Almagro_OEA2015/status/1083780923026477056?s=03). Better international support
impossible.
Likewise, the firm support of the
Legitimate Supreme Court, expressed through its President, Magistrate Miguel
Ángel Martín, for the decision of Guaidó Deputy to assume his responsibilities
as President in Charge of the Republic (see communiqué of the Legitimate
Supreme Court in https://twitter.com/TSJ_Legitimo/status/1083864710024441857).
We congratulate the decision of the
Deputy and now President in Charge of the Republic, Juan Guaidó, to take this
fundamental step for the recovery of freedoms in Venezuela. From this modest
tribune, the President in charge will receive all the support and collaboration
possible, in terms of ideas and suggestions for the success of his
administration. It is never too late to do the right thing. Now is the time
when the hard road to recovering freedom begins, and we will not know when it
will end or in what way.
All these manifestations of support
for Guaidó's decision could only materialize after he assumed his
constitutional responsibility, not before it had occurred. Nor could there be
support from any sector of the country -and especially from the Armed Forces-
or from the International Community, if the President of the Assembly did not
accept to assume the position to which the Constitution obliges him.
Consequently, there could not exist any collective responsibility of the
Venezuelans to remove the dictator, as Guaidó requested in his speech of
January 10, to put an end to this serious situation in Venezuela, but a very
personal responsibility of the one designated by the Constitution, if before he
did not assume the leadership to which he was constitutionally obliged.
Once this is understood, things
begin to move, not only on the side of the opposition but also on the side of
the regime. Fundamentally, the latter could unleash a hunt against Juan Guaidó
and his party, which, although expected, would constitute a serious error since
it could precipitate what they precisely fear is nothing more than the Armed
Forces turning over. However with a criminal regime anything could happen and
we must be very clear because the equation could change in hours, if not
minutes.
However, the regime will continue to
make progress. Some have wanted to indicate that they do not need to close a
National Assembly full of collaborators. That is debatable. The regime needs to
legislate to pursue its plan of communist destruction, and deputies,
collaborationists or not, are an obstacle to that. The new President in Charge
will have to accelerate any action they have in mind because time is short and
the date will be marked by the illegitimate National Constituent Assembly that
announced having a new Constitution ready by the end of February (see Draft New
Constitution would be ready in February", in Spanish http://efectococuyo.com/principales/proyecto-de-nueva-constitucion-estaria-listo-en-febrero-segun-hermann-escarra/).
In other words, the strategy of that
Statute for Transition devised by the political scientists advisers to the
National Assembly Directive will have to produce immediate results long before
that sweep that already has a date. I don't think the time will come for them,
so they will have to rush decisions. Now the game is different with the regime
because there is already a President in Charge and that was not in the plans of
the parties that wanted to put a brake on the push the country has for an
immediate change. The country forced the existence of a President in Charge
just as much as it forced the authorization of the trial of Nicolás Maduro in
the National Assembly, and the official opposition parties know it.
Therefore, the negotiation that some
factors of that official opposition are beginning to have with the regime in
order to negotiate again some "elections" in the same conditions as
those that have been had until now, can spoil the beginning of a possible
political, constitutional, peaceful and electoral solution that begins with the
Presidency of Juan Guaidó. They must remember that they are not dealing with
politicians but with criminals. New elections cannot be accepted, and even less
so with the regime, if they do not conform to the June 13, 2018 ruling of the
Electoral Chamber of the Legitimate TSJ, which orders a new manual Electoral
System, with thorough cleaning of the Electoral Registry and the renewal of the
Electoral Power adjusted to the Constitution, in any new electoral process in
Venezuela.
Hopefully,
Juan Guaidó will not become another disappointment for Venezuelans like the
Revocatory Referendum of 2016. It seems that hope for a peaceful solution is
being reborn and I will not be the one to ruin their optimism. Venezuelans have
given a new opportunity to solve the crisis to the route of the President in
Charge, convinced by those who until recently did not deserve the slightest
confidence. If there is another disappointment, the game and the players will
have to change. The good and the bad of that, is that we will know very soon
...
Caracas, January 12, 2019
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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