I would like to dedicate the first lines of 2025 to change, especially political change, which is essentially what all of us in Venezuela are waiting for to happen, less than a week before the swearing in -legitimate or not- of a new President of the Republic.
The change in Venezuela is felt by everyone, as much as by an old farmer who, knowing the weather, feels in his bones that rain is coming. He does not know precisely when it will be, nor how much it will rain, but he knows for sure that water will fall from the sky, so he knows he must prepare for it. And how does he know? He may not know for sure, but years of experience of knowing his trade, like the signs of the sky, the time of year, the humidity of the environment, are omens of what will happen.
The DRAE defines the word “presage”, in its first meaning, as: “1. m. Sign that indicates, prevents and announces an event”. And in Venezuela there are all the signs for an imminent political and historical change. It is not a matter that can be avoided. Nor that the regime puts thousands of soldiers around Miraflores, or that Maduro insists on being sworn in without the votes to back him up. The political change is coming because it is already inevitable.
In my last note last year, I referred to a process of successive approximations, with intermediate results, which invariably began to take place in Venezuela, and which in the end will inevitably result in the freedom of Venezuelans. Whoever resists to see that is not feeling the country in its true dimension. What comes after that is another matter of political analysis.
As a curiosity of history, I asked an Artificial Intelligence (AI), for 3 situations that have invariably led to a political event that changed history, and this is what it answered:
“Here are 3 situations that have recurrently
been the detonators of significant political transformations, accompanied by
illustrative images (for
those who wish to see the images please follow the link below):
1. Extreme social and economic inequality:
When the gaps between the rich and the poor become unbearable, social
tension increases exponentially. Lack of opportunities, concentration of
wealth, and systemic injustice can ignite the fuse of revolutions and social
movements that demand radical changes.
Historical examples:
- The French Revolution: The inequality between the nobility, the clergy,
and the third estate, coupled with an economic crisis, triggered the
storming of the Bastille and the end of the Ancien Régime.
- The Latin American revolutions: Colonial exploitation and social inequality were key factors in the struggles for independence in Latin America.
2. Deep economic crises:
Economic crises, whether caused by wars, bad policies, or external factors, often generate political and social instability. Job loss, inflation, and food shortages can lead to distrust in governments and the search for alternatives.
Historical examples:
- The Great Depression: The economic crisis of the 1930s triggered the
rise of Nazism in Germany and the New Deal in the United States.
- The fall of the Berlin Wall: The economic crisis of the Soviet Union and the inability to maintain the communist system contributed to the collapse of the Wall and the reunification of Germany.
3. Ideological and religious
conflicts:
Ideological and religious
differences have often been a source of conflict and social divisions. When
these differences intensify and become politicized, they can generate civil
wars, revolutions, and changes in the political order.
Historical examples:
- The Cold War: The confrontation between capitalism and communism
divided the world into two blocs and generated an unprecedented arms race.
- The Crusades: Religious conflicts between Christians and Muslims for control of the Holy Land profoundly marked the history of Europe and the Middle East.
Other factors to consider:
- Charismatic
leadership: The presence
of charismatic and visionary leaders can accelerate or slow down processes
of political change.
- Technological advancement: Technological changes can transform societies
and generate new conflicts and opportunities.
- Natural disasters: Natural disasters can exacerbate existing
problems and accelerate processes of political change.”
(see Google's Gemini AI Consultation, in https://g.co/gemini/share/73789c904d71).
Who in Venezuela can argue that each of these three triggers is not to be found in the political, social and economic situation of our country? We have reached 2025 with a level of extreme social and economic inequality, to such an extent that it is not even the so-called private “rich”, of which the socialists are so full of their mouths, who have the most in society, but those who, being in government, took the wealth of the Nation, in more than 25 years of continuous robbery. This trigger alone should provoke a political change.
On the other hand, who doubts that Venezuela is not in a deep economic crisis as a consequence of the first trigger? No Venezuelan or foreigner, without the need to be an economist, needs to be shown a balance sheet of the National Accounts to know that the country is bankrupt. And not because of the sanctions imposed on the Maduro regime, which in any case came after the bankruptcy, but because of the relentless destruction for more than 20 years of our main source of income, the oil industry, which is now being sold as scrap in a frightening pot-scraping that has not stopped yet. This second trigger makes the first one definitely firm as a harbinger of an unstoppable political change.
The third trigger, ideological and religious conflicts, were the first signs of this supposed “Bolivarian revolution of XXI century socialism” that has been imposed on us from the beginning, with the arrival of Hugo Chavez Frias to power. The bold attempts to change the education of our children and to impose religions that do not correspond to our historical Catholic and Christian tradition, have been repudiated by the majority of the population.
Each of these 3 situations are already in themselves triggers for an unstoppable political change. But all 3 at the same time are the certainty that heralds the event, as the definition of the word omen indicates. But what definitively determines the change are the “Other factors to consider”, mainly in our political case, the “Charismatic leadership: The presence of charismatic and visionary leaders can accelerate or slow down processes of political change”. Here, clearly, the certainty is determined in Venezuela by the “charismatic and visionary” leadership of María Corina Machado, which, in our case, accelerated -and continues to accelerate- without a doubt the process of political change in Venezuela.
Whichever way we look at it, the problem is no longer January 10, for the regime to get off that cloud. Nicolás Maduro Moros will be able to be sworn in as much as he wants that day. Sooner rather than later, what he will not be able to avoid, as in the case of the rain of the peasant, the French Revolution, the Latin American liberation process of our Liberators, the Great Depression, the Fall of the Berlin Wall, the Cold War and the Crusades, will be the certainty of his unstoppable fall and that of his regime, with the consequent freedom of Venezuela.
Caracas, January 4, 2025
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email:
luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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