In the desperate route of the regime and its opposition accomplices to prevent Maria Corina Machado (MCM) from actually being counted in an electoral process in Venezuela, the new CNE has decided to dust off the agreement already negotiated by the National Primary Commission (CNP) with the previous board of the Electoral Power.
Surprisingly, the newly appointed
CNE Board agreed to respond to the CNP's letter of request dated June 5, 2023,
where it requested the discussion of the terms of a possible technical
assistance from the regime's electoral body (see Letter from the CNP to the old
CNE requesting the discussion of the CNE's technical assistance, June 5, 2023,
in https://twitter.com/cnprimariave/status/1705304337071681790).
This request was not answered
until September 22, 2023, coincidentally when the political factors of the
official opposition discuss the feasibility or not of the primaries, precisely
to prevent MCM from counting on them in a primary election that those broken
bats already consider lost (see in Spanish Tal Cual, CNE agreed to offer technical
and logistical support to the opposition primaries, in https://talcualdigital.com/cne-acordo-ofrecer-apoyo-tecnico-y-logistico-a-primarias-opositoras/).
Days before the
"resignation" of the former CNE board, "The National Primary Commission in Venezuela, under the
coordination of Jesús María Casal, evaluated together with CNE representatives
the possibility of technical assistance in the election that will define a
single candidate of the opposition Unitary Platform on October 22. The agreement, although presented, has
not yet been finalized" (see in Spanish Bloomberg online,
Asamblea venezolana anunció renuncia de los rectores del CNE, June 14, 2023, in
https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2023/06/14/parlamento-venezolano-anuncio-renuncia-de-los-rectores-del-cne/) (emphasis added).
Indeed, upon being completely
unassisted by the regime due to the failure to reach the agreement with the
CNE, just the day after the official announcement in the National Assembly,
announcing the forced "resignation" (or dismissal) of the rectors of
the former CNE, on June 16, 2023, the CNP informs Venezuelans in a press
conference that "the decision has
been taken to organize a self-managed primary", thus coinciding with
the main demand of the MCM pre-candidate to organize the primary, the CNP
informs Venezuelans in a press conference that "the decision has been made
to organize the self-managed primary", thus coinciding with the main
demand of the MCM pre-candidate to participate in that process (see Efecto
Cocuyo, La oposición decide ira a una primaria autogestionada, in https://efectococuyo.com/politica/oposicion-decide-ir-a-una-primaria-autogestionada-el-22-de-octubre/).
In view of this background, it
can be seen for miles that the path taken by the CNP before its letter of June
5 was to hold these primaries with the participation of the CNE, with all that
this would imply, including the non-participation of the MCM, as it had
promised if the electoral body of the regime participated. Proof of this path
were the discrepancies that originated the resignation of the former
vice-president of the CNP, María Carolina Uzcátegui.
However, those plans were
truncated by the regime when it imploded the CNE, changing its board of
directors, in order to strengthen the structure of the Electoral Power in its
favor and with people it trusts with a view to the elections of 2024. It is
possible that those who made that decision in the high government did not
notice that important detail or simply left for later the decision to take over
the opposition's primary process, as they are indeed doing with this important
announcement.
The truth is that
"self-managed primaries" require a lot of money, organization,
logistics, and technology (even if the election is manual) but above all the
interest of the political organizations participating in them. At this point,
and in view of everything that has been happening with the electoral phenomenon
of MCM, the only one interested in having a "self-managed primary" is
MCM and all those Venezuelans who wish the non-interference of the regime in
the electoral affairs of Venezuelans. But
unfortunately that is not enough.
And what will be the "cost"
of this technical assistance from the CNE? Guess what! Exactly what you are
thinking: that the disqualified -especially MCM- do not participate in the
primary process. In fact, it is very convenient for the regime to have
primaries, they could even decide to have the banned bats of Capriles and
Superlano, also disqualified, participate in the primaries. What is definitely
non-negotiable for the regime and its opposition is that MCM participates...
In other words, primaries are not
the problem. The problem is a primary where MCM participates. And that is not
acceptable to them and their opposition. Therefore, the time to stop the
phenomenon is now, because afterwards all hell will break loose. It would be
impossible to stop the participation of MCM in a presidential election as an
opposition candidate, once acclaimed with the votes of Venezuelans in a
primary. The world would be on their backs. In fact, I have no doubts that the
parties of the Unitary Platform are very capable of negotiating with the CNE,
through the CNP, the exclusion of MCM, sacrificing the possible salvation of
the country, in order to continue to gain survival spaces with the regime.
Here only two scenarios would
remain for the Commission: a) the CNP reaffirms its autonomous condition and
continues with its decision of June 16, 2023 to carry out "self-managed
primaries", without the participation of the CNE (which could force a
decision of the TSJ of a forced intervention of the regime to the CNP); or b)
the CNP surrenders to the regime sacrificing the MCM. The probability of the
latter is very high.
But there could be a third
scenario -hypothetical and of difficult probability- which points to the CNP
accepting the technical assistance of the CNE as initially agreed with its
former Board of Directors, but without this implying the removal of MCM from
the electoral ballot of the primaries, in a deceptive feign of independence to
Venezuelans. But, would MCM accept at this point a primary with the CNE? The
non-acceptance of that is what would be sought in principle with this scenario.
It would remain on its part to continue the route in spite of this improbable
new situation, accepting the CNE, because if the slogan "until the
end" is true, it should not stop for that reason, although I doubt that
the regime wishes to run that risk with the CNP.
The supervening interference of the NEC in an intrinsically opposition process indicates that any outcome of the NPC with the NEC will not be good for the aspirations of Venezuelans to get out of the tragedy that overwhelms us through the electoral process. It is unquestionable then that any opposition candidate resulting from a process supervised by the regime and its NEC, without the participation of the MCM as the main candidate, will be a complacent and collaborationist candidacy, which will hand over to the regime the outcome of the 2024 elections. And if this is already known by the countries of the International Community, starting with the USA, Venezuelans should know it by now. It is up to us to decide what to do in order to act accordingly...
Caracas, September 24, 2023
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos,
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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