According to the Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict, protests in Venezuela had a consistent growth since 2015, after a very conflictive year of death in the streets. Indeed, after having registered 9,286 protests in 2014, social conflictivity fell in 2015 to 5,851 protests to then consistently remain on the rise (6,917 in 2016, 9,987 in 2017, and 12,715 in 2018) until 2019, when its highest volume was registered, with 16,739 protests. Protests dropped again in 2020 to 9,533, estimated due to the COVID-19 pandemic that locked Venezuelans, that and the following year 2021, when 6,560 protests were recorded (see in Spanish 10 years of protests in Venezuela 2011-2021, OVCS, in https://www.observatoriodeconflictos.org.ve/el-conflicto-de-la-semana/10-anos-de-protestas).
If the pandemic and the worsening of the country's health situation had not persisted, we are sure that the protests in 2020 and 2021 would have far exceeded the number presented in 2019. In the first half of the year so far this year, social unrest already exceeded by 14.7% that of the same period in 2021, going from 3,393 in the first half of 2021 to 3,892 in the first half of 2022. And from what we have noticed, that number will be far exceeded by the second half of 2022. The pandemic gave the regime a truce, and apparently Venezuelans are no longer afraid of it, because if you are going to die of COVID due to the lack of a health and social security system, then you prefer to die in the streets protesting for your rights.
But if to all this is added, to the already dire crisis of services, the clumsiness of the regime's decisions to violate the collective bargaining agreements of public sector workers, social conflict will reach historic levels. Teachers have taken to the streets again, not only because of the starvation wages they are being paid, but also because of Maduro's swindle dictated through the National Budget Office, ONAPRE, of not paying them their full vacation bonus, and as if this were not enough, taking as a reference the salary of 2021 ($1.52 per month), arguing that a new collective bargaining agreement has not been signed (see in Spanish Public sector teachers protest in Venezuela, in https://www.latimes.com/espanol/internacional/articulo/2022-08-02/maestros-del-sector-publico-protestan-en-venezuela).
And I affirm that the swindle is Maduro's, because it is well known that ONAPRE is only an executing agency dependent on the National Executive, and its instructions against the workers only put a technical face to it, justifying the plundering suffered, when the hidden face of the person responsible is that of Nicolás Maduro Moros. "Capital District, Aragua, Miranda, Táchira, Carabobo, Lara, Portuguesa, Mérida, Apure, Barinas, Sucre, Nueva Esparta and Monagas are some of the entities in which the workers came out for the fifth consecutive occasion to demand their labor claims" (see in Spanish Tal cual, in https://talcualdigital.com/protestan-en-varios-estados-contra-el-instructivo-onapre-y-amenazan-con-paro-nacional/).
But if the above were not enough, the regime, instead of negotiating with the educators, threatens them through its most notorious spokespersons, such as the PSUV Deputy, Mario Silva, who stated in his TV program, La Hojilla, in view of the possibility of a national strike of educators, the following: "Go for it, then, go for a national strike, go for it..., you will see how the red tide will go over you...! he threatened... He urged the workers to understand that at this moment the country is experiencing special conditions, we are in battle, and growing for more pain, so that it hurts more". (see in Spanish Mario Silva threatens teachers who demand their rights, in https://impactovenezuela.com/y-ellos-temblando-mario-silva-amenaza-a-los-maestros-que-reclaman-por-sus-derechos/). What Deputy Mario Silva does not say is that part, if not all, of that "red tide" is an active part of those protests he is so concerned about, by threatening that union that has been characterized for being the protagonist of the most important labor struggles in the contemporary history of Venezuela. He will be in for a surprise when he summons his "red tide".
But the most amazing thing is that now it turns out that Venezuelans have to understand that those who have destroyed practically all institutions, starting with the main income generating industry of the country, cannot pay the payroll of the public sector employees. When a company reaches this state of bankruptcy, the invariable result is that it closes its doors. And in this case, since countries do not go bankrupt, what happens is that their governments generally fall. But Venezuela is a very "sui generis" country. We have more than 22 years of acute social conflict, reported in the last 10 years by the Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict, and the regime is still laughing its head off.
But how long can that be, how long can any government, of whatever nature, put up with thousands of workers in the streets protesting for their livelihood? Perhaps that has an answer. In March 2014 I published a post - in fact it is the most read post on my blog so far. (see in Spanish Inevitable fall, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2014/03/caida-inevitable.html) where he reviewed the research of Dr. Erica Chenoweth of the University of Colorado, Boulder (watch Dr. Chenoweth's TED talk in http://youtu.be/y4xcimkAFNc), which found that during the period 1900-2006 Nonviolent insurgencies around the world were twice as likely to succeed completely over those where violence was involved. The research revealed that NO insurrection had failed during that period (1900-2006) after reaching a consistently active participation of only 3.5% of the population, having historically recorded successful insurrections with far less than that percentage.
I want to highlight again that research, because if before we could not reach that percentage of 3.5% of the population actively protesting in the streets, the regime is putting it on "home run" as they say in baseball, to reach in a jiffy that figure and beyond, stupidly threatening the workers, when it is that same mass that once was with them, and now struggles to survive in spite of them. Apparently the harsh reality is telling us that if there is any possibility of getting out of these delinquents, paradoxically it will be by protesting for the lack of food, not for the lack of freedom. In other words, Maduro, mess with the saint but not with the donation....
Caracas, August 10, 2022
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