By Luis
Manuel Aguana
There is a principle associated with quantum mechanics called “the observer effect” that has profound practical implications far beyond the natural sciences, where it originated. This principle states that the very act of observing a phenomenon changes its essence. In other words, the observer is not neutral. By observing, they intervene in the phenomenon itself and change it.
All this came to mind when I observed what happened in Oslo with the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado (MCM). When the Nobel Committee decided to award the prize to MCM, it produced an observable phenomenon, which the rest of the world—especially Venezuelans—then changed when we effectively set out to react to it.
I wrote in a recent note dedicated to the Nobel decision for MCM (see Nobel Peace Price on the edge of war, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/nobel-peace-prize-on-edge-of-war.html) that the Nobel Prize had placed her on another level of competition—in another league—making her unbeatable in any future political confrontation.
But I fell short. Venezuelans and the serious problem we suffer were at the center of the world's attention on December 10, the day of the Nobel Peace Prize award ceremony. Presidents and world-renowned figures were present on the day of the award ceremony, making it one of the most important historical events of recent times on a global scale. That changed the very essence of the protagonist's significance.
From that moment on, MCM ceased to be a figure of relative importance in Venezuela and became a figure of global stature. And although this helps the country recover from the hijacking it is undergoing, it distorts the internal political reality. Some may ask me: is that a bad thing? Yes and no. All the political factors, good, bad, and worse, that for one reason or another are outside Venezuela, were present at the hand-kissing ceremony in Oslo, seeking revalidation with a hug or a photograph with MCM. Everyone, even those considered traitors to her efforts. Her blessing from today onwards is now essential.
If it was previously important for the opposition leader to express her opinion on the direction the fight against the regime should take, as a result of her efforts to achieve electoral victory on July 28, 2024, from today onwards it has become indisputable. It would look very bad if anyone dared to say otherwise. And is that a good thing? Definitely not. I don't think it's good that one human being should now be responsible for something as complex as Venezuela's problems.
From today onwards, none of those leaders—even those who queued up for the photo in Oslo—who previously contested MCM's possible presidency would now dream of thinking they could be ahead of her. And I don't think that would be a bad thing, given the quality those contenders have demonstrated.
From this pivotal moment in her life, MCM is destined to steer Venezuela's political future. This would not be a negative development if we could remove it from the toxic political context in which the Venezuelan opposition finds itself, which, in order to survive after 1998, embraced the regime of Hugo Chávez Frías and then that of Nicolás Maduro Moros. Many of them were “congratulating” her in Oslo for her achievement, but with the idea behind it of continuing their survival, squeezing themselves into the seams of her dress by any means necessary. Once again, the final decisions on the Venezuelan problem will now fall on a single person.
That prior political definition of the situation presented by MCM long before Venezuela's freedom becomes effective could be a great advantage, but also a tremendous disadvantage, if she allows those who approach her to do so with hidden intentions. That is the curse of absolute leadership: not knowing whom to trust. And that condition is one of terrifying loneliness. There will be those close to her who will tell her that the solution lies in one direction and others in the opposite direction, purely out of self-interest. But the mistake will be hers alone.
Those of us who are far removed from this situation and can only see the results of the decisions being made now can only speculate based on what we see from the outside. My concern now focuses on everything that has happened since July 28, 2024, and on ensuring that these results are implemented once Nicolás Maduro Moros' regime no longer exists in Venezuela.
MCM has repeatedly insisted that Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU) must be sworn in in Venezuela. And many jurists have supported that position, arguing that the U.S. government will take over Maduro's regime shortly. But many of us believe that this is a mistake. The US will take over the regime WHEN IT CONSIDERS IT CONVENIENT for its internal and external interests. It may even choose not to do so. This is something that is beyond the control of the Venezuelan opposition, even the one awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
If the history of this country has taught us anything, it is that the legal system has always been subrogated to the political system when necessary and when it suits those in power. My concern is that it was not MCM who was elected by Venezuelans on June 28, 2024, but EGU, and she has not yet been empowered as the vice president who can continue the fight if necessary. I ask you: what would happen if EGU—God forbid—were to disappear tomorrow, due to illness or because the regime took care of her with its partners? Does that concern seem crazy or strange to you? Not to me, in light of what they have done in the past.
If EGU disappears before being sworn in and does not empower MCM, everything that has been done since 2023, including 28J-2024, would be irretrievably lost. But not only would the efforts of MCM and his Nobel Prize be lost, but more seriously, the deaths, disappearances, and imprisonments of those who fought to uphold popular sovereignty would have been in vain.
All of this reinforces the theory I put forward in my January note (see Edmundo must be sworn in, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/edmundo-must-be-sworn-in.html) of the money administered by the MUD and the loss of its control. If EGU is sworn in, and the MUD loses administrative control of OFAC money, everything would pass to EGU-MCM due to the legitimacy of its mandate.
The MUD would not agree to lose control of the money needed for its survival by swearing in EGU without negotiating “how I will fit in there.” And that is what is worrying about those who are now approaching the Nobel Prize winner seeking to reconcile the past, advising her to wait patiently “for Venezuela to recover.” And in the midst of all this, we could all lose because we know how these parties have behaved historically when it comes to preserving their political influence.
The swearing-in of EGU is not just a matter of whether it is done in the country or before whom it is done. Any good lawyer can resolve that if there is the political will to do so. That will be the least of the problems for the new Nobel Peace Prize laureate if the President-elect disappears while waiting for Venezuela to settle down. It will be the preservation of the efforts of an entire people who accompanied her to Oslo and made it possible.
The underlying problem is who would be the true legitimate ruler of the country in the face of a power vacuum in Venezuela. Now it would be EGU, but power has not been officially transferred to a legitimate authority, and therefore neither has it been transferred to MCM. There are powerful people who are not interested in this happening. History will judge whether those who had the opportunity to safeguard this effort, regardless of what happens, failed to do so for political convenience. That would be the first task to be resolved by the new leader of Venezuela's foreseeable political future...
Caracas, December 13, 2025
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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