By Luis Manuel Aguana
If any situation highlighted the weakness of the US plan to restore freedoms in the country, it was the clear response given to President Donald Trump by ExxonMobil Corp CEO Darren Woods, who described Venezuela as “unfit for investment,” as reported by Bloomberg on the same day as the meeting with 20 representatives of the oil industry at the White House (see in Spanish Bloomberg, Exxon califica a Venezuela como “no apta para invertir” pese a la presión de Trump, in https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mundo/estados-unidos/petroleras-se-muestran-cautelosas-ante-el-regreso-a-venezuela-pese-a-la-presion-de-trump/).
And this makes sense if you look at it from the perspective of an individual who is accountable to a board of directors for their shareholders' money. Trump spoke of an investment in Venezuela of around $100 billion, which will not come out of his pockets, nor from the US treasury, but from the 20 oil companies gathered on that occasion.
While it is true that they would benefit from any oil plan favorable to the US, it is no less true that Trump will only be in the White House for another three years (unless there is a change in the upcoming midterm elections in the US), and they will continue to deal with whatever government ends up staying in Venezuela. And, of course, it is logical to assume that the president of a company like ExxonMobil would find it much more convenient to invest his money in a country where justice prevails and citizens' rights are not violated, especially, in his case, those of foreign investors. This is known internationally as the “rule of law.”
But Trump's three-phase plan for Venezuela puts the economy before the restoration of freedom and democracy. In other words, before the restoration of the rule of law in the country.
In fact, the first phase was called “Stabilization,” the second “Recovery,” and the third “Transition” (see Runrunes in Spanish, ¿Cómo es el plan de tres fases de Estados Unidos para Venezuela?, in https://runrun.es/noticias/596576/claves-como-es-el-plan-de-tres-fases-de-estados-unidos-para-venezuela/?tztc=1).
The first phase of “stabilization” has to do, according to explanations offered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with bringing order to the ‘chaos’ that the US concluded could be created in the country after the “extraction” of Nicolás Maduro Moros and his wife Cilia Flores in the early hours of January 3. However, the country was already in political, economic, and social chaos. And what the US really calls stabilization is the pressure exerted on what remains of Nicolás Maduro Moros' regime to act in accordance with its interests. The big question here is how long this state of affairs can be sustained.
The second phase, called “Recovery,” will ensure “that U.S., Western, and other companies have fair access to the Venezuelan market,” according to the U.S. Secretary of State.
This is the economic phase of the plan, which includes the supposed investment of Western companies, especially US oil companies, in a completely uncertain rule of law environment. However, to the concerns of some of them, such as ExxonMobil, President Trump has responded that “the US could rule Venezuela and take advantage of its oil reserves for years.” “Only time will tell.” (see in Spanish EuroNews, Trump se autodenomina presidente interino de Venezuela en su red de Truth Social, in https://es.euronews.com/2026/01/12/trump-se-autodenomina-presidente-interino-de-venezuela-en-su-red-social-truth-social). Claramente, eso no es aceptable para los inversionistas.
Something important mentioned by Rubio: the phase includes “a process of national reconciliation, releases from prison, and reconstruction of civil society.” All of this BEFORE resolving the country's political problem. In other words, putting the cart before the horse...
The third phase, called “Transition,” is where political changes would come through a call for elections “demanded by Venezuelan democratic forces.” Clearly, as this is the last phase, it will not happen in the short term. In fact, everyone is asking for patience (as if we haven't had enough in 27 years). But Rubio did not give further explanations of this phase, which President Trump has already ruled out.
This is the plan that is currently being implemented. It is an excellent plan for the US because it controls the remnants of the Venezuelan tyranny from outside, which is submitting to the force of the power that demonstrated what it is capable of on January 3. They immediately stop oil shipments to countries that are competitors and enemies of the US, and use the money from its sale on international markets to benefit the US economy and then the Venezuelan economy, ensuring control of the country with the largest oil reserves on the planet. They send a clear signal to the whole world that if they do not submit, the same thing could happen to them.
It is an excellent plan for what remains of the regime because, if they stay on the track laid out by the US, they will live in peace and protection, even with a promise of future survival. They maintain repression, prisons, and political prisoners, especially military personnel, while the US turns a blind eye, seemingly more interested in ensuring economic submission. They receive fresh and better-paid money from the country's scarce oil production, since the Chinese paid for oil at a discount because of the enormous debt we owe them. That money will allow the new tenant of Miraflores to strengthen her position against her internal opponents, while improving the country's economic indicators in the eyes of the public, starting with the exchange rate. But most importantly, it gives them time to adjust to a new situation and emerge unscathed from the attack.
But what about the Venezuelan people? Do you think ordinary Venezuelans will benefit from Donald Trump's plan, which amounts to indefinite tyranny under US tutelage, with the general incentive of a short-lived improvement? At first glance, it would seem so, but it is a mirage in the middle of a desert.
By reversing the priorities of its plan, by arguing that economic recovery precedes the restoration of political freedoms, the US is making a mistake because it has been proven that the opposite is true. Economic recovery is only possible with political freedoms. This is not my opinion, but that of a Nobel Prize winner in Economics:
Indeed, in his seminal work Development and Freedom, Amartya Sen, winner of the 1998 Nobel Prize in Economics, asks and answers the question: "Is this approach to the problems of economic needs and political freedoms based on a basic dichotomy that seems to undermine the importance of political freedoms because economic needs are urgent, reasonable? I would say no, that it is a mistaken way of viewing economic needs or understanding the importance of political freedoms. The real issues that need to be addressed lie elsewhere and involve paying attention to the extensive connections that exist between political freedoms and the understanding and satisfaction of economic needs. The connections are not only instrumental (political freedoms can contribute greatly to providing incentives and information for solving pressing economic needs) but also constructive. Our conceptualization of economic needs depends fundamentally on open public discussions and debates, the guarantee of which requires insistence on political freedoms and basic human rights" (1)
Therefore, the US could hardly ignore the order in which the serious political problem facing the country should be addressed, especially when it comes to bringing Venezuela into the Western economic orbit. Amartya Sen called this the Primacy of Political Freedoms.
Sen's approach to basic human capabilities, which earned him a Nobel Prize in Economics, indicates that “pressing economic needs add to—they do not detract from—the urgent need to recognize political freedoms...”.
So, as I pointed out more than 10 years ago (see in Spanish, La Primacía de las libertades políticas, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2015/07/la-primacia-de-las-libertades-politicas.html), If we want to put food on Venezuelans' tables, the first thing we must guarantee is a political system that respects civil liberties and human rights, insisting once again on the primacy of Sen's political freedoms, and ensuring that everyone understands that without resolving this issue first, it will be impossible to solve the economic problem. Therefore, Trump's plan will not solve Venezuela's problem; it will deepen it, with the aggravating factor of the perpetuity of the regime that remains alive, even though its head has been cut off.
And why? Because the regime is counting on Donald Trump not having the same power to harm them in Venezuela as he loses political power within the US over the course of the year, betting that 2026 will be decisive with the midterm elections next November. By the time new elections are held in Venezuela, as the plan envisages, if the regime continues with the familiar faces in power, exactly the same thing will happen as in 2024, with the help of the electoral system of the interim president's brother. If there is one thing the regime has perfected in 27 years, it is the manipulation of time and the naivety of the US. This danger is very real and has already been addressed in the international media by leading political analysts:
Chavismo, or what remains of it, cannot be underestimated either. Even though everyone is cooperating, they still have the card they have played best over the past 26 years up their sleeve: buying time. An electoral setback for the Republicans in the November midterm elections could provide some breathing room for the regime, which will attempt to extend the transition beyond the end of Trump's term, taking advantage of legal loopholes in the Constitution to declare absolute absence and call for elections, and imposing the almost total control they currently have in the National Assembly" (see Panam Post in Spanish, ¿Saldrá impune la cúpula chavista con el plan de Trump para Venezuela?, in https://panampost.com/jose-marcelo/2026/01/16/saldra-impune-la-cupula-chavista-con-el-plan-de-trump-para-venezuela/).
Is there a way to avoid this? In the opinion of the National Constituent Alliance (ANCO), the answer is yes. Our proposal has been published on three occasions: October 6, 2025 (see in Spanish https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2025/10/comunicado-la-alianza-nacional.html), November 17, 2025 (see in Spanish, https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2025/11/comunicado-anco-propuesta-para-una.html) and December 23, 2025 (see in Spanish, https://ancoficial.blogspot.com/2025/12/comunicado-anco-propuesta-de-solucion.html), by proposing the Constituent solution as an immediate step following the unexpected situation that has just arisen on January 3, 2025, with the absolute absence of Nicolás Maduro Moros from the exercise of the Presidency of the Republic.
But it is very important that the US government first understand that the order of the plan they are implementing is wrong. The first thing that must exist in that plan, after its “Stabilization” phase, is the restoration of Venezuelans' political freedoms. And that cannot and should not be achieved through elections, but through the immediate convening of popular sovereignty, through a National Constituent Assembly to “transform the State, create a new legal system, and draft a new Constitution” in accordance with the current Venezuelan Constitution of 1999, in its Article 347. The current occupant of Miraflores can convene it at the request of the US government, but only after its terms and conditions have been controlled (clean and transparent electoral rules, with an independent ad hoc Electoral Tribunal, supervised internationally by the US).
The implementation of this call would allow an elected National Constituent Assembly, as the legitimate representative of the Venezuelan people, to dismiss the interim government and organize and appoint a true and legitimate National Transitional Government and Representative Democratic Reinstitutionalization, in accordance with and in compliance with Articles 5, 62, 70, 326, 333, 347, and 350 of the Constitution, composed of Venezuelans with impeccable public track records and expertise, with representation from the Armed Forces, and the participation of all political and social forces in the country, including those from the regime's party who believe in a democratic solution for Venezuela. General elections would follow the promulgation of a new Constitution by that National Constituent Assembly, which would restore all the institutions damaged by the Castro-Chávez-Maduro regime over 27 years, with the creation of new public powers.
This transitional government would establish the foundations for the economy to function, would be completely legitimate, and would be backed by the force of the United States. This would mark the beginning of a new rule of law, which is required by investors in oil and other areas, allowing laws to be enacted to provide the necessary legal basis for their investments and interests in the country. This approach would give Venezuelans a change in freedom and the US what it wants, but within the framework of strict compliance with Venezuelan law and the sovereignty of our resources.
This solution would be more convenient and much more beneficial to Donald Trump's administration than keeping a poor copy of Nicolás Maduro Moros' regime in Venezuela, with Venezuelans imprisoned without freedom or democracy. And for those who do not believe this is possible, I challenge you to copy this note and send it to Donald Trump or Marco Rubio himself. I am sure that they will at least give it a chance to be studied, which is the least this proposal deserves, a privilege that unfortunately has not been given to it in Venezuela until now....
Caracas, January 19, 2026
Blog: TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
(1) Amartya Kumar Sen, Development and Freedom, The Importance of Democracy, The Primacy of Political Freedoms and Democracy, Chapter 6, pp. 184-185, Ed. Planeta, ISBN 84-08-03524-X, 1999
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