By Luis Manuel Aguana
Why is it that if the predictions that were announced since last month, of a very high electoral abstention for last Sunday July 27th with the municipal elections, came true, I do not feel that we are really advancing in our years-long endeavor to remove the usurpers from power in Venezuela?
And excuse me for those who feel triumphant for the historic abstention of last Sunday, July 27. It is not that this result is not a massive demonstration of rejection to the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros and its electoral system. We are well aware of that precisely today, one year after the presidential elections of July 28, 2024. No. I have no problem with the dilemma of voting or not voting. I have problems with what happens after we succeed with an abstentionist call (see in Spanish my note of 12 years ago, To vote or not to vote, here is the question, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/2013/10/votar-o-no-votar-he-aqui-la-cuestion.html).
I was saying at that time: to the question “would you call for abstention?”, the answer is: it depends if this call is part of a consolidated strategy among all real opponents, organized among civil society and parties not collaborating with the regime to answer the question of what to do after nobody goes to vote. What happened in 2005 was a resounding success as a historical milestone. And what happened afterwards was that nobody harvested what that meant and it remained as an isolated event that was bitterly returned to us. If we have to call for abstention, it is because we know in an organized way what we are going to do after we succeed.
But it was not only us as opponents who confirmed the rejection to the regime of Nicolás Maduro Moros, but also the regime, which also confirmed that the system of “free, universal, direct and secret voting”, established in Article 63 of the Constitution, is a hindrance that will expose it from now on to a massive rejection for any electoral consultation with the “best electoral system in the world”, for which reason this system will be one of the first modifications they will advance in their new proposal for an in-Constitutional Reform of January 2026.
Dr. Allan R. Brewer-Carías, a prominent Venezuelan constitutional lawyer and former constituent of 1999, expresses in his article in El Nacional of July 28 the following:
"...it is then clear, in my opinion, that in Venezuela there will not be any other elections in which the opposition can participate. The regime already knows, and it knows it well, that it will never again be able to win a democratic election, so the elections that have been held after July 28, 2024 and those to be held in the future will be totally, but totally controlled and rigged, even in advance with the early selection of the candidates to compete...". And he concludes categorically: “it can be said that in Venezuela, if the current authoritarian regime continues, and the constitutional reform that is being prepared is approved, in the future there will be no more representative democratic elections” (see in Spanish El Nacional, Allan R. Brewer-Carías, Sobre la destrucción del Estado de derecho y la imposibilidad de que pueda haber elecciones de democracia representativa, 28-07-2025, at https://www.elnacional.com/2025/07/sobre-la-destruccion-del-estado-de-derecho-y-la-imposibilidad-de-que-pueda-haber-elecciones-de-democracia-representativa/).
But, do we know in an organized way what we are going to do after having succeeded in calling for abstention last July 27? All the messages sent by the opposition leadership to the country indicate so, although so far what we have seen in concrete terms is nothing more than asking for patience and waiting for “something” to happen.
And until when should we wait? Because this wait has a time limit, which is none other than January 2026, at which time the regime will proceed to the unlawful reform of the 1999 Constitution with its new National Assembly, so that anything we intend to do adjusting to the present constitutional text, will be done at a time discount.
And the worst thing is that the opposition has said absolutely nothing about this situation, as Dr. Brewer-Carías points out in the aforementioned article: "The serious thing, now, is that this already announced constitutional reform, about which -I say it with astonishment- the democratic opposition continues without pronouncing or denouncing it, is going to be submitted to an approving referendum, but with the certainty that what happened in 2007 when a similar constitutional reform was rejected by the people can no longer happen, but what happened with the consultative referendum on the Essequibo Territory of December 2023, and the recent election of the deputies, in which, even though nobody went to vote, they announced to have obtained more than ten million votes approving the respective questions".
What we have seen, concretely so far, is that the international siege around the Venezuelan regime has tightened. The recent decision of the U.S. government to declare the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization, which includes the regime's leadership, pushes them into a corner and makes them accelerate any measure to cling even tighter to power.
However, these external manifestations are just that, external and do not depend on what Venezuelans can do. It is as if we knew beforehand that a tragedy is about to happen to us, such as an earthquake or a flood, and we remain paralyzed, waiting for something external to save us, without moving.
This does not mean that some external help could come in the middle of a seemingly endless wait, but that we should at least prepare ourselves for an eventuality that we know for sure is going to happen, if something does not happen to prevent it. In the above examples, the Civil Defense warns the population to take the necessary measures to avoid disaster losses as much as possible.
In our case, the opposition civil defense should be implementing the necessary passive and active measures so that, in the event of a tragedy, the population is mobilized and attentive, and not simply waiting for a political catastrophe.
As a contribution to the ideas, one of these measures could well be a Popular Consultation promoted by the opposition, conducted inside and outside the country, with alternative means of participation, not only to reject by a majority the unconstitutional Reform of the regime, but also to reaffirm the extraordinary deed of July 28, 2024, and consult the people whether or not they wish to convene to decide in a National Constituent Assembly the destiny of the country.
This would not only mobilize the population, but would also give a clear signal to the International Community that any help they may decide to give us before the tragedy of January 2026, would have the firm support of a majority of an active population willing to oppose an unlawful change of the Constitution. And that goes beyond the decision the people made in the presidential elections of July 28, 2024 and the militant abstention of July 27, 2025. There are still things that can be done beyond waiting, like sheep in a slaughterhouse, for them to finish slaughtering us in Venezuela.
Caracas, July 29, 2025
Blog: TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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