By Luis
Manuel Aguana
There is no exercise that Venezuelans love more than speculating about what could have been and was not. We engage in profound discussions about how an event should have unfolded, and while we do so, the real consequences of the event itself lead us to new situations that we do not perceive, which always places us at the tail end of events and in the position of being passive rather than active subjects of the things that happen to us.
Yes, the US intervened in Venezuela, took Maduro and Cilia away, and left Delcy Rodríguez in charge of the presidency of the Republic, whether we like it or not. And no, they did not leave those we wanted in charge. It could have been, but it was not. They left the structure of the regime intact because that was not their goal in the first place. If that had been their goal, as they did in Panama in 1989, they would have landed in full force and brought in more soldiers to completely control the country.
They imposed a three-phase plan, which I mentioned in a previous note, and which I did not like because it prioritized the economy over human rights, the restoration of freedoms, and institutions (see Once again, the Primacy of Political Freedoms, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/once-again-primacy-of-political-freedoms.html).
They decided to first bring order to the armed madmen (Stabilization Phase), then focus on the country's economic recovery (Recovery Phase), and finally political normalization (Transition Phase), which included elections. It is actually a very pragmatic plan, very much in line with the American way of thinking. They put a gun to the head of the acting president to make her execute it, whether she likes it or not, and that's it.
Clearly, there are factors within the US, such as oil companies, that indicate that putting money in the amounts now requested in the long term in a country without legal certainty, which Trump's plan ensures in the third phase of the plan, is not in their interests. But that contradiction is resolved by the Trump administration by force, because their excuse is that it is not the Venezuelans who will secure those investments, but the power of the US. And perhaps they are right about that...
So, even though I don't like the order in which they are doing it, things are measured by results, and the movement is demonstrated by walking. Yesterday, the president of the pro-government National Assembly announced that they will respond to “the request of the acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, to work on a General Amnesty Law”... “covering the political period from 1999 to the present” (see in Spanish, AN incorporates General Amnesty Law into its agenda, in https://www.asambleanacional.gob.ve/noticias/an-incorpora-ley-de-amnistia-general-en-su-agenda).
The aforementioned Amnesty Law would be part of the stabilization process that seeks to find social peace in order to achieve the subsequent phases of Trump's three-phase plan, aimed primarily at the release of political prisoners. No one in this country could disagree with that.
In response to the announcement by Delcy Rodríguez's regime, the Penal Forum, a Venezuelan civil society organization dedicated primarily to defending people deprived of their liberty for political reasons, published a proposal entitled “Draft Bill for a General Amnesty - Foro Penal, January 2026” for consideration by the country and the world, which, in addition to proposing “General Amnesty for all persons imprisoned or politically persecuted, investigated, charged, prosecuted, accused, convicted, fined, forced to pay compensation, deprived of their property, or sanctioned in general, in relation to crimes, misdemeanors, or infractions of any nature, “when such actions have resulted from, are linked to, or are a direct or indirect consequence of events of a political nature” that occurred in the territory of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela from January 1, 1999, until the entry into force of this Law” broadly and precisely calls for the repeal and revision of existing regulations established for years by the regime for political persecution, such as the Constitutional Law Against Hate, for Peaceful Coexistence and Tolerance, and others that have served the regime to imprison political opponents (see in Spanish, Penal Forum, Draft Amnesty Law, in https://foropenal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ANTEPROYECTO-DE-LEY-DE-AMNISTÍA-GENERAL-FORO-PENAL-CON-EXPOSICIÓN-DE-MOTIVOS-Enero-2026.-GHS-LAB-ARM.pdf).
This is a clear example of how civil society could propose to the world, and especially to the US, how to proceed in order to help dismantle, without political bias or hidden interests, the structure that Hugo Chávez Frías and Nicolás Maduro Moros have built over almost 30 years to subjugate the country and the Venezuelan political opposition.
However, for these initiatives to be heard and implemented, Trump's three-phase plan must be successful, but that will depend on the stability of Delcy Rodríguez and her ability to convince those in the regime who are more radical than she is that she is “not surrendering to the US” and that everything she does at the behest of the North is for the benefit of the famous “revolution,” which is becoming more and more difficult with each passing day.
If this Amnesty Bill from the Penal Forum were to be approved without any changes by the National Assembly of the regime inherited by Delcy Rodríguez, it would be a good indicator that Trump's plan is working and on the right track. But if, on the contrary, the Amnesty Law that Jorge Rodríguez and his deputies end up approving is nothing more than an unenforceable mockery, as they have done in the past, designed to buy Trump time, it will show that the plan needs to be revised.
In that case, it seems that the US is already anticipating such a situation and “alternative mechanisms are being studied in case that bridge breaks down due to internal pressure, Delcy's own escape, or a coup that leaves her unable to govern,” as has been reported, according to an article in Spain's ABC newspaper, reviewed by AlbertoNews (see in Spanish, ABC of Spain, Trump considers a technocratic government for Venezuela if Delcy does not consolidate her power, in https://albertonews.com/principales/abc-de-espana-trump-sopesa-un-gobierno-de-tecnocratas-para-venezuela-si-delcy-no-se-afianza-en-el-poder/).
According to this version, “a model that Trump has elevated to international doctrine would be taken as a reference: the Gaza precedent. The White House presented it as an executive architecture with members responsible for defined portfolios—governance, reconstruction, attracting investment, financing—aimed at stabilizing and rebuilding structures in a devastated territory”. That is: “There is talk of profiles with experience in macroeconomic management, energy, health, food logistics, and critical infrastructure; people capable of signing decrees, reorganizing ministries, and ensuring the continuity of basic services. The aim is not a ‘unity government’ with partisan quotas, but an emergency cabinet”.
Is this possible without a previously established political foundation? Can a cabinet of specialists with experience in different areas of the public sector be imposed on the post-Maduro regime to ensure the successful implementation of Trump's plan until the transition phase is complete? Many questions arise from this scheme, such as, for example, who would be willing? Would they have the green light and support to do what needs to be done, with an aggressive regime against them? Would they have security and full resources? To whom would these technocrats answer? Definitely not to the regime...
In the cabinet of General Eleazar López Contreras' transitional government (1935-1941), after 27 years of iron-fisted tyranny, there were historical figures such as Alberto Adriani, Arturo Uslar Pietri, Manuel Egaña, Enrique Tejera Guevara, José Rafael Pocaterra, Diógenes Escalante, and Tulio Chiossone, among other brilliant Venezuelans. No one could say that these luminaries of our recent republican history served anything other than the legitimate interests of the country, and not the continuity of Gomecismo, regardless of the past history of General López Contreras (see in Spanish, Annex: Cabinet of Eleazar López Contreras, in https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Gabinete_de_Eleazar_López_Contreras).
There has hardly ever been a better group of technocrats working together for Venezuela in the areas of public finance and economics, education, health, agriculture, and labor, despite the existence of many people in that administration who wanted to return to the darkness of the past. They were the main architects of bringing the country into the 20th century.
There is no comparison between the Rodríguez family of the 21st century and General López Contreras of the early 20th century, but there is a comparison between the historical situations in which they find themselves, with two tyrannies left behind and the future ahead. If López had chosen to continue with Gomecismo, history would have buried him or drowned him along with the crickets of Puerto Cabello. But he made the right decision. It remains to be seen whether his historical successors will do the same.
I still believe that Venezuela needs a change in its fundamental political structures and in the balance of power from the center to the periphery, with full regional autonomy, and that can only be discussed by Venezuelans in an Original National Constituent Assembly, which will produce a new constitution that corrects the serious distortions caused by 27 years of the Chávez-Maduro duo, under the influence of Cuban Castroism, and which will finally call elections under a new Constitution. These serious distortions will not be corrected without convening the Constituent Assembly, with simple elections in a context of destruction of political parties. The US must understand this, especially for its final phase of transition.
If Venezuela has to go through two difficult phases imposed on it before reaching that point, the best thing those of us who have spoken out against this outgoing tyranny can do is to lighten whatever is necessary to make that transition as quick and successful as possible for the benefit of those most affected and persecuted for so many years.
There are too many dangers hanging over the plan implemented by the US, but I am sure that many of us will not bet on its failure, without thinking about what could have been and was not, even if it means swallowing the bitter pill of the remnants of a regime that shows no sign of dismantling itself in favor of the Venezuelan people. God be with us...
Caracas, February 1, 2026
Blog: TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
Twitter:@laguana
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