The current Venezuelan situation is painfully not the Hollywood movie they pretend to present it to us. I would love it to be so and we would save thousands of hours of thinking about how to get out of this horrendous tragedy. I wish many rescue operations with colorful names would come from abroad to sweeten the serious situation, not only to get 5 caged compatriots out of Venezuela, but also the hundreds of political prisoners still in the miserable dungeons of the regime.
And it is not a question of dismissing or minimizing in any way that 5 Venezuelans have been released from an unjust and inhumane confinement, but to emphasize that solving the situation of a few - in whatever way it may have been - does not mean solving the situation of the country. That the emphasis should be on the solution of the political crisis, which is what we are still waiting for.
I believe that it does not help to insist through the opposition mass-media that the regime will fall tomorrow because the security of a custody “was circumvented”, that “it will not be long”, that they should “hold on a little longer”, that soon Nicolás Maduro Moros and his court will flee the country. Because if this turns out not to be true, as it may very well be due to the dynamic changing situation of national and international politics, the disappointment and depression of the opposition people will be even greater.
I believe it is important to discuss what is relevant, and the possibilities we democrats have to solve the situation beyond what the political leadership presents us, which seems to have exhausted itself after the chapters of July 28, 2024 and January 10, 2025, and which unfortunately believes that by shouting louder that “Maduro is falling”, this will become a reality.
From this space of the network I have been in some way a small sounding board for the proposal of the Alianza Nacional Constituyente Originaria, ANCO, to oppose the Constitutional Reform of the regime, the call for a National Constituent Assembly (see Constituent Negotiation, in https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/p/constituent-negotiation.html). Very little discussion has been given to debate this issue, beyond a few interviews in some serious media, without much propagation in key sectors of the country that still cling to a supposed media-constructed reality.
In order to continue with the serious debate in the country, I was invited to a discussion with two great friends, very knowledgeable of the Venezuelan political reality from different perspectives, Dr. José María Rodríguez, main promoter in Venezuela of the Adaptive and Intelligent Social Technology, SAI, and Dr. Jesús Domingo Ortiz, Physician, promoter and advisor of telemedicine projects using social capital and SAI technology. (see in Spanish, La tesis del 1%: Conversación entre José María Rodríguez, Luis Manuel Aguana y Jesús Domingo Ortíz, in https://youtu.be/ttt6ekC3pR0).
We have decided to make this discussion public given the interesting subject matter involved in a thesis by Dr. José María Rodríguez, which I summarize as the “Thesis of the 1%”, which I will leave to Dr. Rodríguez himself to summarize for you, beyond our discussion in the video:
“For the regime, the citizens are made up of
only 1% of the Venezuelan population, chosen by themselves (the regime), with Cuban
advice, and which they have been selecting and optimizing since the beginning
of the Revolution;
- The rest (99%) do not participate in the
decisions in any way. Nor do they have any privileges;
- A hierarchy is established among those 300,000
people, perfectly defined and differentiated by strata (military, repressive
bodies, government officials, etc.);
- The privileges of the ruling class or upper
strata of the pyramid are earned according to the merit achieved in
revolutionary activities;
- The so-called “opposition” tries to join the
1%, to start making merits. The most representative characters of this class
are Manuel Rosales and Henrique Capriles;
- Having consolidated the political project
after more than 25 years of Revolution, the priority is now the legal project
(new Constitution);
- Finally, the economic project, totally detaching itself from the Western economies and starting to revolve around the Russian-Chinese axis, beginning with the total surrender of the oil industry”.
This thesis, which I consider apocalyptic for Venezuela, adjusted to the futuristic Hollywood movie “Blade Runner” -so fashionable now-, but fastened with strong screws to the political reality of the country, will be the one prevailing if the current variables remain unaltered, or “ceteris paribus”, as economists say. If we do nothing, the regime will continue to advance in the consolidation of its legal project of Constitutional Reform. This thesis entails the creation of an “opposition” adapted to the new circumstances, whose main leaders, Rosales and Capriles (and those who follow them) will be the ones who will finally inherit the “kingdom”. Sad, isn't it?
And my answer to that 1% thesis is the enunciation of three possible options for what is happening in Venezuela: A solution that goes through the definitive suppression of the other? To negotiate with the other the terms to coexist with the other (or better said, with those who follow him) in an equitable manner? To meekly accept the worldview of the other and accommodate ourselves as best we can to that?
The first option is the one we are witnessing. Our traditional confrontational opposition approach since 2002 of eliminating the regime, and whose main exponent is in hiding, giving a fight that, depending on external factors that are not under its control and that it does not dominate, we can lose or win. And at the end of that confrontation only one can remain. Here the factors in conflict win or lose everything.
The second option is to call on the people to decide. That is our thesis. What we would negotiate with the regime would be the terms of the convocation of the people in a fair and equitable manner, arbitrated by the International Community to avoid the biased deviation of the CNE, to an Original National Constituent Assembly, and that we all abide by the sovereign decision of the legitimate representatives of the Venezuelan people, and not by the decision of some negotiators appointed by politicians on both sides. Is that possible? I believe it is, and I think that we do not lose anything by trying, especially for the reasons I will explain below.
The third option is the 1% thesis of my dear friend, Dr. Rodriguez. In that case, we Venezuelans will then have to accept that the world has changed and that the negotiations that the regime is carrying out with the People's Republic of China (PRC) to manage our oil, and the recent 10-year agreement with Russia, will prevail as a concrete reality, despite the deafening media noise from the opposition that the regime will fall tomorrow. Hardly that would happen with some Chinese generating billions of yuan -not dollars- for the regime in the new financial circuit that the PRC is using over SWIFT, as a consequence of the foreseeable debacle of the dollar and the US economy.
Each option may have friends as well as detractors. But, what defines the use of one or the other as the definitive path, and more importantly, who defines it? Do you not believe that a definitive course of this country is being decided without the most important participation of the Venezuelan people, who will establish the future of entire generations of people in this country?
Do you now realize that things are not so simple? In ANCO we advocate for an autonomous solution, and our own solution for Venezuelans to this problem that has become an existential crisis for us, given the current circumstances of world geopolitics. I do not believe that the solution for Venezuelans should come from Washington, nor from Moscow, nor from Beijing. We advocate for our own solution, from all of us, neither from the opposition nor from the regime, through our legitimate constituent representatives. Let us get out of all those worlds THE BEST FOR US. After all, it is our life and that of our families in the future. I have never said that it is easy, only that it is the best solution, and that we must together make it prevail.
Caracas, May 12, 2025
Blog:
TIC’s & Derechos Humanos, https://ticsddhh.blogspot.com/
Email: luismanuel.aguana@gmail.com
X (Twitter): @laguana
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